Rece Davis picks winner of Iowa-USC's Week 12 game

Rece Davis discusses USC, Iowa, Makai Lemon and Jayden Maiava ahead of their Week 12 matchup.

ESPN College Game Day host Rece Davis picked the USC Trojans to win this weekend against the Iowa Hawkeyes. | Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans return home for Week 12 with momentum after their win over Northwestern, and the scene now shifts toward a matchup with the Iowa Hawkeyes. USC head coach Lincoln Riley has watched quarterback Jayden Maiava guide an offense averaging more than 500 yards per game while wide receiver Makai Lemon continues to push past defenses with steady production.

Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz brings in one of the nation’s most consistent defensive units, creating a clear contrast between USC’s explosiveness and Iowa’s discipline.

Iowa arrives following a tight loss to Oregon, where the Hawkeyes endured heavy rain and needed large contributions from quarterback Mark Gronowski and running back Kamari Moulton. Iowa’s defense continues to hold opponents down, ranking among the top five nationally in several major categories.

The conditions last week forced Gronowski to fight through difficult throws, and both teams left their games with different paths into the new week.

College football analyst Rece Davis discussed the matchup on ESPN’s College GameDay podcast and framed the moment around what lies ahead for USC. He mentioned, “Saturday afternoon, we talked a little bit about what's in front of the Trojans. Iowa is coming to town off that heartbreaking loss against Oregon.” His comments allowed him to connect Iowa’s grind-it-out style with the rhythm USC brings to its home field.

Rece Davis Explains USC’s Offensive Firepower Edge Against Iowa

Davis shifted into Iowa’s earlier-season struggles to underline his concerns. He recalled watching Gronowski miss short throws and said he remembered a night when the quarterback “had a couple of wide open guys, and literally the ball needed to travel no more than 10 yards in the air, and dirt ball, air mail, and you're like what in the world?”

He added that Gronowski “settled in” against Oregon and remained “a really good runner,” but he still questioned Iowa’s ability to generate enough offense.

The comparison opened the door for Davis to highlight USC’s playmakers. He noted that he praised Auburn receiver Cam Coleman earlier in the week before adding, “Makai Lemon... was sensational last week against Northwestern. Really has been all year.”

USC Trojans wide receiver Makai Lemon (6) has 937 yards and seven touchdowns on 61 receptions this season. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Lemon’s performance last Friday included 161 receiving yards, and USC combined its passing success with 127 rushing yards from running back King Miller.

Davis tied the matchup together by pointing out the gap between what USC produces and what Iowa allows. Iowa holds opponents to 250.2 yards per game, but USC’s fast pace and balanced totals stand out. With those factors in mind, Davis delivered his conclusion by saying, “I'll go with the Trojans to win that game [against Iowa].”

The USC Trojans will host the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.