Texas vs. Texas A&M game prediction by ESPN football computer

Texas A&M takes its undefeated record and College Football Playoff ambitions into a road test against rival Texas, which has a chance to reshape the playoff bracket in this game.

Texas appears to be truly out of the playoff picture at No. 16 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings with three losses, but the third-ranked Aggies are very much in it and apparently on a path to the SEC Championship Game.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Texas vs. Texas A&M prediction

Austin could turn into Upset City if this projection is to be believed.

That's right, Texas is currently predicted to hand Texas A&M its first loss of the season, as the Longhorns come out ahead in a narrow majority 51.5 percent of the computer simulations.

That leaves Texas A&M as the presumptive winner in the remaining 48.5 percent of sims in what would be its first loss of the season.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect a close one. Very close.

Texas is projected to be just 0.4 points better than Texas A&M on the same field, according to the latest model forecasts.

If so, that would be an upset, as Texas A&M is currently listed as a 1.5 point favorite against Texas, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 78.3 percent of all games and hit 42 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

All odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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