Predicting the AP top 25 college football rankings for Week 12 after some big upsets

As we survey the damage from another very active Saturday of games across the country, let's look ahead to the AP top 25 college football rankings for Week 12

Who's moving up? Who's moving down?

Note: this isn't our ranking of the best teams, but our prediction for how top 25 voters will slot them in the official poll

Predicting the AP top 25 college football rankings for Week 12

Dropping out: 19 Missouri, 22 Memphis, 24 Washington

25. Louisville. Losing in overtime at home to Cal is never a great look, especially in a weird ACC, but their other loss was by 3 to a then-ranked Virginia, and they have a win over Miami that could count for enough to cling to a spot here.

24. Tulane. An important win against ranked Memphis dramatically helps the Green Wave’s chance at the American title game, and thus the playoff. There’s one bad loss to UTSA, a 25-point defeat at Ole Miss, but this week’s result could mean AP voters make a trade, dumping the Group of Five team that lost and adding the team that beat them.

23. Virginia. AP voters might go nuclear and throw the Cavs out of the rankings entirely. One, because of a loss to unranked Wake Forest. And two, because the reason they’re ranked in the first place was a win over Florida State that doesn’t really count for much anymore. We don’t think they’ll go that far, yet.

22. Pittsburgh. The Panthers were included in the first playoff rankings after placing 28th in last week’s AP vote, and they’ll likely want to keep up with the selection committee this time around, especially with room to maneuver in the bottom of the poll.

21. James Madison. AP voters ranked the Dukes 26th last week, and they improved to 8-1 by making a case that they deserve Group of Five consideration from the playoff selectors.

20. Cincinnati. Idle this weekend, the 7-2 Bearcats are coming off that awful loss at Utah last time out and head into a matchup against Arizona next.

College football rankings: Predicting the AP top 25 poll for Week 12 — Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

19. Tennessee. Big Orange hung onto a spot in the poll by their fingernails despite a third loss last weekend. And they could move up despite being idle and given other movement around the bottom of the rankings.

18. Michigan. Idle on Saturday, the Wolverines return against Northwestern in a three-way tie for third in the Big Ten and ranking among the top-dozen in FBS in rushing.

17. USC. An important step forward for the Trojans, who stayed undefeated at home in a big win over Northwestern and remain in the thick of the College Football Playoff race.

16. Miami. A slow start, but the Hurricanes rebounded to beat Syracuse by 28 to move to 3-2 in ACC play, not quite what was expected at this point.

15. Utah. One of several college football teams off on Saturday, the Utes’ prior losses to BYU and Texas Tech hurt, but they’re still dominating in their conference wins.

14. BYU. A 22-point loss at Texas Tech means the previously-perfect Cougars are due for a drop, but likely not behind the Utah team they beat a couple weeks ago.

13. Georgia Tech. Idle this past weekend, the Yellow Jackets return against Boston College on the road next week in what has become a very strange ACC race.

12. Vanderbilt. Diego Pavia saved the Commodores’ bacon after trailing by double digits at home to Auburn, stacking up 489 total yards and 4 scores to move to 8-2, the school’s most wins since 2013.

11. Oklahoma. Idle this weekend, the Sooners might benefit from last week’s win at Tennessee and other poll movement to stay ahead of Texas. Or could the voters make a swap this week?

10. Texas. Also off on Saturday, the Longhorns could take advantage of top-ten changes, what was a narrow gap between themselves and OU in last week’s vote, and having the same record as Oklahoma to make a jump over their rival.

9. Notre Dame. Make it seven straight since the 0-2 start as the Irish smacked Navy, and while there’s a clear path to the playoff, there’s also no margin for error.

8. Texas Tech. Beating undefeated Big 12 leader BYU could be enough to jump the Red Raiders over Ole Miss given the latter wasn’t remotely challenged, but there was enough of a gulf in the previous vote to predict against them leapfrogging the Rebels.

7. Ole Miss. An expected romp for the Rebels in a 49-0 demolition against The Citadel in an early Cupcake Week matchup, stacking up 603 yards to improve to 9-1 and in the thick of the playoff picture.

6. Oregon. Good offense was hard to come by in the rain, but the Ducks overcame a very late deficit to kick the game-winner and avoid the upset at Iowa.

5. Georgia. It was close for a quarter, but the reigning SEC champs pulled away to pound Mississippi State on the road with a massive home date against Texas up next.

4. Alabama. A little tougher than expected for the Crimson Tide with quarterback Ty Simpson under pressure, but they did enough to get past LSU to win their eighth-straight game and stay perfect in SEC play.

3. Texas A&M. Marcel Reed had over 200 yards passing and the Aggies’ defense had a field day in a statement win at Missouri, their third-straight road victory, moving to 9-0 for the first time since 1992. They could peel off some first-place votes, but not enough to change things at the top of the poll.

2. Indiana. Their backs against the wall and their perfect season in peril, the Hoosiers responded with a game-winning drive for the ages, and Omar Cooper had college football’s catch of the year to keep IU undefeated in a statement win at Penn State.

1. Ohio State. Julian Sayin once again went over 80 percent throwing the ball and Jeremiah Smith had 137 yards as the Buckeyes walked all over Purdue to remain undefeated and out in front in the AP and playoff rankings this week.

More: AP top 25 teams moving up, down in Week 12