College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 5

Coming out of the latest Saturday of action, let’s take a look at the updated ESPN top 25 college football rankings as we look ahead to the Week 5 slate of games.

This past Saturday was a statement for several ranked teams, who used the occasion to prove they belonged in the conversation for their respective conferences, while other teams failed to live up to the moment, resulting in some notable changes across the college football rankings this week.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

Where do things stand in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings this week?

College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 5

25. Arkansas

Rankings change: Down 1

Win projection: 5.4 games

Arkansas needed to win this past weekend’s game against Memphis when looking at their future schedule, but it succumbed to a one-point loss against the Group of Five hopeful, an unwelcome turn of events given the Hogs look forward to playing seven of their final eight games against teams that were ranked as of this past Saturday.

24. Washington

Rankings change: Up 5

Win projection: 8.5 games

A new entrant into the ESPN college football rankings this week, the Huskies made a statement with a dominant 59-24 victory over Washington State in the Apple Cup game as Demond Williams threw 5 touchdowns and ran for a 6th, and Washington returns home against Ohio State next week ranking second nationally with 61.7 points per game and 9th with 260 rushing yards on average.

23. Auburn

Rankings change: Down 3

Win projection: 7.0 games

Jackson Arnold was brought down 10 times by Oklahoma’s elite defensive front in a loss in the SEC opener, but the quarterback did engineer a late scoring drive to take a brief lead and the Tigers’ defense held very firm against the Sooners’ skill weapons most of the game.

22. Florida State

Rankings change: Up 5

Win projection: 9.7 games

Tommy Castellanos had 205 yards passing with 520 touchdowns and the Seminoles ran in another 8 scores with a school-record 498 yards in an expected rout against Kent State. As a result of their last two romps, the Noles now rank fourth in college football by averaging 58 points per game, but that number will take a hit against Miami in next weekend’s ACC opener.

21. Nebraska

Rankings change: Down 4

Win projection: 8.5 games

This was supposed to be the moment when the Cornhuskers played themselves back onto the national stage, but that moment was delayed once again in a three-point loss to Michigan, the 28th-straight loss against a ranked opponent, as Dylan Raiola was sacked seven times despite finishing with 308 yards and 3 touchdowns.

20. Texas Tech

Rankings change: Up 6

Win projection: 10.0 games

A lower-than-expected ranking for the new favorite to win the Big 12 Championship and make the College Football Playoff after a statement 34-10 victory at Utah in a battle of the conference’s two best teams. The Red Raiders’ new defense certainly looks the part after stifling the Utes’ dynamic offense and backup quarterback Will Hammond had 2 TDs in relief.

19. LSU

A much better feeling for Arch Manning, the subject of some big criticism after a sluggish start to the season, going off for 309 passing yards and 7 all-purpose touchdowns as the Longhorns smashed Sam Houston in a 55-0 rout with the SEC opener at Florida next.

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 8.1 games

There was some concern that LSU’s offense was failing to live up to its billing, but Garrett Nussmeier and these skill weapons put on a show in a big win over FCS foe Southeast Louisiana heading into a big SEC rivalry game at Ole Miss next Saturday.

18. BYU

Rankings change: Up 4

Win projection: 9.6 games

An impressive cross-country effort for the Cougars, who pulled out a double-digit win against East Carolina to stay undefeated looking ahead to the Big 12 opener at Colorado next time out and a more difficult conference schedule in the weeks to come.

17. Oklahoma

Rankings change: Down 4

Win projection: 8.2 games

John Mateer led the Sooners over 75 yards in 6 plays in just over 2 minutes to retake and hold a lead against Auburn in a physical SEC opener, staying undefeated on the back of a school-record defensive effort that included 10 sacks against Jackson Arnold.

16. Texas A&M

Rankings change: Down 1

Win projection: 8.8 games

Idle this past weekend, the Aggies got a well-deserved rest after moving to 3-0 following a dramatic last-second win at Notre Dame two weeks ago, an important moment for Mike Elko’s tenure as head coach and Marcel Reed as a nationally-recognized quarterback. A&M hosts Auburn in the SEC opener next.

15. Vanderbilt

Rankings change: Up 6

Win projection: 8.6 games

Talk about a revenge game. Upset by Georgia State last season, Vandy responded in the rematch by hanging 70 in a rout, the first time they scored that many points in a game since 1918, and moving to 4-0 for the first time since 2008. One more tune-up against Utah State is next before the Dores hit the road against Alabama in a huge rematch of last year’s historic upset.

14. Missouri

Rankings change: Down 2

Win projection: 8.8 games

Mizzou’s ground game smashed through for 285 yards and 2 scores while its defense held South Carolina’s rushing attack to minus-9 total yards to improve to 4-0 in their conference opener, sinking the Gamecocks to 0-2 in SEC play in the process.

13. Notre Dame

Rankings change: Up 1

Win projection: 8.2 games

Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love combined for 5 rushing touchdowns and the Irish ran for 257 yards, but they still let Purdue score 30 points in a weather-delayed game, leaving some lingering doubts about the cohesion of this defense going forward with a date at Arkansas and its potent offense next weekend.

12. Michigan

Rankings change: Down 2

Win projection: 8.9 games

Facing a key test on the road and already with one road loss, the Wolverines needed to make a statement, and that they did by running for 286 yards and three touchdowns, with Justice Haynes adding 149 of those yards himself, in a three-point win at Nebraska and proves Michigan will be a force to reckon with in the Big Ten.

11. Miami

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 11. games

This was a closer game than perhaps most onlookers expected, as the Hurricanes were still leading hapless Florida just 13-7 entering the fourth quarter, but Carson Beck led an 80 yard drive to extend that lead and Miami added another TD late to pull away 26-7 and improve to 4-0 with another test at Florida State up next.

10. Penn State

Rankings change: Down 3

Win projection: 9.3 games

There’s a lot to like about the Nittany Lions’ defense, which ranks among the nation’s five best in scoring, but there are still questions around if this passing attack is living up to its potential with all that talent. We’ll know more next week as Penn State welcomes reigning Big Ten champion Oregon to Happy Valley.

9. Tennessee

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 8.6 games

Coming off a three-point loss to Georgia last weekend, the Volunteers rebounded by predictably beating up on UAB in a 56-24 result in which Joey Aguilar eclipsed 200 passing yards, something he’s done in all 28 of his career starts at quarterback, the longest such active streak in the FBS.

8. Ole Miss

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 10.4 games

Trinidad Chambliss once again looked the part in relief of starting quarterback Austin Simmons, throwing 2 touchdowns, while Kewan Lacy added 2 more touchdown rushes from a yard out as the Rebels smashed Tulane in a 45-10 decision, pumping the brakes on the Green Wave’s emergent playoff hopes.

7. USC

Rankings change: Down 2

Win projection: 9.9 games

Jayden Maiava accounted for 5 all-purpose touchdowns while hitting 77 percent of his pass attempts in a comfortable win over Michigan State to advance to 2-0 in Big Ten play looking ahead to a matchup against Illinois on the road next weekend.

6. Indiana

Rankings change: Up 10

Win projection: 10.4 games

Any doubters who thought the Hoosiers were a one-year wonder were summarily silenced this weekend after Fernando Mendoza led an offensive blitzkrieg, putting away No. 9 Illinois by a shocking 63-10 count, a statement to the Big Ten and the country that this squad is in position to do something special again in 2025.

5. Texas

Rankings change: Up 1

Win projection: 8.8 games

4. Georgia

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 9.9 games

In a good place after taking out rival Tennessee by three points the weekend prior, the Bulldogs were idle on Saturday, getting some needed rest before returning home to take on Alabama in one of the most consequential games in the SEC this season.

3. Alabama

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 8.6 games

On a two-game winning streak since the opening loss to the Seminoles, the Crimson Tide took this past Saturday off after putting up 111 combined points against Monroe and Wisconsin, but heads into another massive test for Kalen DeBoer, on the road against Georgia.

2. Ohio State

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 10.7 games

Off this past weekend, the reigning national champion Buckeyes hit the road for the first time this season this coming Saturday in their Big Ten opener across the country against Washington, which sits at 2-0 behind college football’s 4th ranked rushing attack.

1. Oregon

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 10.4 games

Dante Moore had over 300 yards passing with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions as the Ducks predictably beat up on winless rival Oregon State in another tune-up before heading back east in a monster test of their Big Ten bona fides at Penn Stat next weekend.

College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 5

25. Arkansas

24. Washington

23. Auburn

22. Florida State

21. Nebraska

20. Texas Tech

19. LSU

18. BYU

17. Oklahoma

16. Texas A&M

15. Vanderbilt

14. Missouri

13. Notre Dame

12. Michigan

11. Miami

10. Penn State

9. Tennessee

8. Ole Miss

7. USC

6. Indiana

5. Texas

4. Georgia

3. Alabama

2. Ohio State

1. Oregon

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