OPINION: Extending Nico Hoerner Should be Cubs' Top Offseason Priority
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With the Chicago Cubs' 2022 season winding down to a close, fans and media alike are beginning to speculate and wonder what kind of roster moves the club will make this winter.
The Cubs were recently rumored to have interest in signing free agents Trea Turner and Carlos Rodon.
Having 'interest' in a player can only mean so much. Are the Cubs interested in giving Trea Turner $300 million, or are they simply interested in offering Turner a short-term contract, that he likely would not have reciprocated 'interest' in?
Are the Cubs actually looking to make a big splash or two this winter, or are they simply generating enough buzz to keep season ticket holders from cancelling their ticket packages?
Although the organization has not been fully transparent in its messaging, the Cubs are in a clear rebuild. 2022, like 2012 was ten years ago, was phase one. The club is 68-86, despite playing in the weakest division in the National League.
Willson Contreras will be a free agent upon the completion of the season. Contreras appears to be the 2022 version of Javier Báez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, who all seemed to think their monetary value was higher than the Cubs' projection for each player. Rizzo ended up signing with the Yankees for $38 million fewer than the Cubs reportedly offered him in an extension a year prior.
Báez reportedly rejected a Cubs' extension worth $180 million, two years before collecting $140 million from the Detroit Tigers on the open market.
If Contreras — who is batting .246 this season while rating as a minus-glove (-1 Defensive Runs Saved) — hopes to sign a contract in the ballpark of what the Philadelphia Phillies gave J.T. Realmuto (five years, $115.5 million), the catcher, entering his age-31 season, will likely be the next addition to the list of Cubs' castoffs.
The Cubs could make a play for Turner, or one of the other attractive shortstops expected to hit the open market this winter, but why should they, when they already have a 25-year-old homegrown shortstop under contract through 2025 that may be better than all of them already?
Hoerner is second among National League shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved, trailing just Miami Marlins' Miguel Rojas.
Hoerner is contributing in all facets of the game, batting .291, stealing 18 bases and posting 4.6 Wins Above Replacement.
Hoerner is owed $720,000 this season and is under club control through 2025.
Signing a free agent like Turner, would be paying an expensive price for a piece that the Cubs don't need, at a time when the club is not ready to compete.
The Cubs could still sign a shortstop and retain Hoerner, moving him over to second base, but that would block the development of 25-year-old Nick Madrigal, who batted .300 with a .378 on base percentage in the month of August, while playing plus-defense, in his return from injury. The Cubs have Madrigal under club control through 2026.
Given what Madrigal showed after returning from injury and what Hoerner has done all season, the Cubs' middle infield might be the club's greatest positional strength at the big league level.
The Cubs will eventually supplement their team with free agent signings, when the team is ready to compete. Building through free agency has rarely worked in Major League Baseball, and the Cubs, 68-86, don't appear to be ready to contend in 2023. The club does however have a number of promising pieces in its farm system, that should be working their way up to the big league roster over the next couple of years.
Signing expensive free agents would block the development of other young players.
Instead of trying to build through free agency, the Cubs should identify what pieces the club would like to hang onto for when the team is ready to compete, starting with Hoerner.
The Atlanta Braves have set an attractive blueprint for handling finances, after stockpiling their farm system. Instead of splurging on a few big-ticket free agents, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopolous and his brain-trust have extended a number of the team's homegrown stars, supplementing their core through acquiring first baseman Matt Olson via trade, and giving Olson an extension of his own.
The Braves now have a nucleus of Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies all under contract for the next seven years, at minimum. Acuña's deal is worth a remaining eight years and $100 million; not bad for a player that hopes to be a perennial National League MVP candidate. Albies is owed seven years and $35 million.
Clubs can lock up young talent, sometimes at a discounted rate, if they don't wait too long.
Though a player might miss out on his 'big contract' by taking an early extension, he assures himself that he will make a nice haul of money that will be insured to him, even if he were to suffer an unfortunate injury.
Guaranteeing oneself $100 to $150 million is a pretty good life for anybody. Anybody that accepts a $100 million payday should be set for life.
The Cubs should begin working on a long-term contract with Nico Hoerner, instead of flirting with older and potentially more-expensive options. Hoerner has established himself as a cornerstone franchise player in 2022, and should soon be rewarded.
The last thing the Cubs should want to have happen would be a repeat of 2021, when a number of the team's core players all approach free agency at the same time, and they lose all of them. Try to lock up Hoerner now, and commit to the first piece of what could be the Cubs' next championship puzzle.
Extending Hoerner would give the Cubs something to build around, and potentially set an example for future potential stars coming up through their pipeline.
