Should the Yankees Drop Aaron Judge Down in the Lineup for the Playoffs?
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is having a season for the history books.
Entering play Tuesday, he is just two home runs shy of tying Roger Maris' American League single-season home run record of 61. He also has a great shot at winning baseball's second Triple Crown since 1967.
At the All-Star Break, the Yankees owned the best record in baseball at 64-28. Since, they're a subpar 24-30. That's a two-month sample size that should have any fan of the team concerned, with just over two weeks remaining in the regular season.
Thankfully, Judge has been a one-man wrecking crew down the stretch of the season for the Yankees.
Over his last 14 games, Judge is batting .509 with a .597 on base percentage, a 1.057 slugging percentage, a 1.654 OPS, eight home runs and 14 RBI.
Yankees manager Aaron Boone has batted Judge lead-off over the club's last nine games, most likely in order to give him as many at bats as he can get, in attempt to pass Maris' home run record.
Prior to batting lead-off, Judge spent the bulk of the season (112 games) in the two-hole for the Yankees, but what's going to happen once the playoffs begin?
39 of Judge's 59 home runs have been solo shots. Wouldn't it be nice to cash in on more than just one run on a Judge blast? After all, he's hitting better with runners on base (.332), than he is with the bases empty (.305). He's just had 85-less at bats with runners on.
Put men in scoring position, and Judge is even more dangerous, mashing .375.
Judge will still hit home runs with runners on base. So wouldn't it make sense to consider dropping Judge down to the third or fourth spot in the Yankees' lineup for the postseason?
For over a century, a baseball club's biggest hitter batted third or fourth in the lineup, for this very reason. Recently, however, clubs have trended towards slotting their big bat in the two-hole, in hopes of giving him more at bats over the course of the season. This is all good and well, especially in Judge's case, when he's chasing a record, but wouldn't you rather give your big bat more chances with runners on base, than just more chances, period? It's a quality versus quantity argument, that nobody has a definitive answer to.
The Yankees might score more runs if they batted Judge third, placing two hitters that get on base in front of him.
The Yankees currently have five other players with an on base percentage above .330: Matt Carpenter (.412), Oswald Peraza (.393), DJ LeMahieu (.358), Anthony Rizzo (.341) and Andrew Benintendi (.331).
Benintendi, Carpenter and LeMahieu are all currently on the Injured List. Carpenter and Benintendi's returns are currently in-question, but LeMahieu will likely be back soon.
Peraza has only played in eight games, so he might not be someone to trust that high in the lineup come October, but LeMaheiu and Rizzo could each bat in front of Judge, likely increasing the number of opportunities for the Yankees to have runners on base for the soon-to-be American League MVP.
They could otherwise keep Judge in the lead-off spot and bat LeMahieu and Rizzo 8-9, but then they would get less at bats from their two most reliable players — not-named "Aaron Judge" — to get on base.
A counterargument to dropping Judge down is that he would have less protection behind him in the lineup, and pitchers might be able to pitch around him.
Though Giancarlo Stanton is having a down-year, he still poses as a threat to pitchers around the sport. Last season, he bashed 35 home runs and 97 RBI with a slash line of .273/.354/.870.
The Yankees could bat LeMahieu and Rizzo 1-2, then have Judge hit third, with Stanton behind him.
Give Judge as many at bats as he can get, in order to hit as many home runs as he possibly can. But when the Yankees enter October, give Judge as many opportunities to plate runners home when it matters most.
