UFC 291 Predictions: Can Gaethje Make Strong Statement Against Poirier?
The wait for UFC 291 is almost over and we've got our main card picks in.
Fight fans will be packing the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah on Saturday evening (July 29). Those in attendance and viewers watching at home will witness the BMF Championship fight between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. "The Highlight" is hoping to even the score against Poirier, as "The Diamond" defeated him five years ago.
READ MORE: JUSTIN GAETHJE REVEALS WHETHER OR NOT HE'S CLOSE TO RETIREMENT AHEAD OF UFC 291
In the co-headliner, Jan Blachowicz will share the Octagon with Alex Pereira. Both men are former UFC champions, but Pereira is moving up in weight. Many have been eagerly anticipating this one, as Blachowicz and Pereira have highlight reel finishing ability. The main question is, can Pereira thwart Blachowicz's grappling?
Let's not delay the inevitable and get to our UFC 291 main card predictions.
Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje 2
(via Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC)
Fernando Quiles Jr: You'll often hear those within the MMA industry say that Dustin Poirier is more technical than Justin Gaethje, and for good reason. Gaethje has always been known for his brawling style, but he demonstrated a more patient and precise approach in his last victory over Rafael Fiziev. I think if he plays that game with Poirier, he'll realize he's a tad bit behind and resort to what he's been known for throughout his career. I've got Poirier scoring the late TKO win. (Pick: Poirier)
Mathew Riddle: On face value I'd have to say Dustin Poirier is the more refined striker, but some external factors come into play. Who's improved the most since 2018? Does the altitude factor in? I think Gaethje is the more improved fighter coming into this rematch. His leg kicks will pay dividends, so will his acclimation to the Utah elevation. Never count Poirier out, I just think Gaethje has this one. (Pick: Gaethje)
Drew Beaupré: The anticipation for this rematch is so high that it almost feels like the actual fight is bound to underperform in some way, but both Gaethje and Poirier have consistently proven throughout their careers that they always deliver for fans. There’s been a lot of speculation around if Poirier will try to use his ground game more here than in the first meeting between the two lightweights, but even if “The Diamond” just decides to trade strikes with Gaethje I’ll still take him to come out on top after what will hopefully be another epic fight. (Pick: Poirier)
Dan Wade: The first matchup between these two ended up as one of the best fights in the last decade. Justin Gaethje came out with an excellent game plan and destroyed Dustin Poirier’s lead leg, leaving him hobbled for the majority of the bout. Poirier still found a way to knock Gaetjhe out even while compromised. Since then, the fighters have an identical record and have lost to the same opponents. “The Diamond” will likely be keen on the leg kicks this time around and I think he gets it done again in the rematch. (Pick: Poirier)
Consensus: 3-1, Dustin Poirier
Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira
(via USA TODAY Sports)
Fernando Quiles Jr: Many will be riding with Alex Pereira in this fight and I can see why. His standup is no joke and he can end anyone's night early. With that said, not only does Blachowicz have the clear wrestling advantage, but his punches also pack heavy power. While a KO win for Pereira wouldn't surprise me, I think he gets taken down and will be unable to get back up to his feet. I see a ground-and-pound finish for the former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion. (Pick: Blachowicz)
Mathew Riddle: I think that although Jan should have a big edge in wrestling in this fight, his age and Pereira's adaptability work against him. Jan has a tendency to drop his right hand, especially when parrying punches and it could be an opportunity for "Poatan" to land his patented left hook. If Pereira can resist the takedowns, I can't argue against him winning the fight. (Pick: Pereira)
Drew Beaupré: A lot of people appear to be as excited for this fight as they are for the night’s main event, and it seems likely that whoever gets the win here will find themselves fighting for the vacant light heavyweight title next. Everyone knows that Błachowicz has the skillset necessary to frustrate Pereira considering the way he shut down Israel Adesanya at UFC 259, but I can’t shake the feeling that “Poatan” is going to announce himself to the division by cracking Błachowicz’s chin. (Pick: Pereira)
Dan Wade: One of the most intriguing fights of the night with Alex Pereira moving up to light heavyweight with a potential title shot hanging in the balance. “Poatan” is one of the most powerful punchers in the UFC and already has two title fights under his belt. Former champ Jan Blachowicz has the edge in experience and will likely be the bigger fighter. This fight is a coin flip, but I am going with the power of Pereira to get the job done. (Pick: Pereira)
Consensus: 3-1, Alex Pereira
Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira *FIGHT CANCELED*
(via Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)
Fernando Quiles Jr: Michel Pereira is a ball of energy, but cardio issues have plagued him in the past. I think he's going to aggressive once again here, especially given how technical Stephen Thompson is. I can see Pereira having an early burst and fading after round one, allowing "Wonderboy" to pick him apart from the outside the rest of the fight. This seems like a decision win for Thompson. (Pick: Thompson)
Mathew Riddle: Although Michel is on a bit of a streak right now, we need to consider the optics of the fights he won. He struggled a lot against Santiago Ponzinibbio and was lucky it was a three-rounder as the UFC vet was starting to take over. It was the same with Andre Fialho, who gave a good showing for himself. Even Niko Price put Michel under heavy pressure and it was a real revelation to see how he operates under extreme pressure. Michel fades heavily after a round and a half, and with "Wonderboy's" five-round experience, you have to give it to him. (Pick: Thompson)
Drew Beaupré: The fact that Michel Pereira has put together a five-fight win streak completely escaped me until this event rolled around, and this is a perfect matchup to see if he’s actually capable of hanging with the best welterweights in the UFC. “Wonderboy” is obviously at the tail end of his career, but the win against Holland showed he’s not done yet and I can’t see how Pereira will get the best of him if the majority of the fight plays out on the feet. (Pick: Thompson)
Dan Wade: It’s hard to pinpoint where Stephen Thompson is at this stage in his career, but he was dominant in his last fight against Kevin Holland. “Wonderboy” is still an elite striker even at the age of 40, and his style can be hard for his opponents to diagnose. Michel Pereira comes into this fight red-hot and his wild fighting style should lead to a very exciting matchup. I think that Thompson still has enough gas in the tank to pull out the victory. (Pick: Thompson)
Consensus: 4-0, Stephen Thompson
Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green
(via Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC)
Fernando Quiles Jr: Tony Ferguson is no longer a top UFC lightweight, that much is clear. He is 39 years old, on a five-fight skid, and hasn't won a fight since 2019. Green hasn't been too hot himself, going 0-2, 1 NC in his last three outings. With that said, I expect Green to be more explosive than "El Cucuy" at this stage, and it'll lead to a late TKO stoppage. (Pick: Green)
Mathew Riddle: I believe a slow and over the hill Ferguson won't be quick enough for Green, who still maintains his hand speed, power, and reflexes. Ferguson's plodding offense shouldn't work against someone who operates on the level of Green. Sorry Tony! (Pick: Green)
Drew Beaupré: It would be nice if the dominant storyline around this fight could just be that it’s a matchup between two of the most unique personalities in the UFC, but of course that’s overshadowed by Ferguson’s current losing streak and his recent actions outside of the cage. “El Cucuy” has only been facing the lightweight division’s best aside from his last fight against Nate Diaz, and that performance didn’t provide much of an indication that he’ll be able to turn back the clock here. (Pick: Green)
Dan Wade: It’s easy to forget that only a few years ago Tony Ferguson was the hottest welterweight in the UFC, riding a 12-fight win streak. It’s been all downhill for “El Cucuy” since. He has now dropped five-straight fights against the cream of the crop of the division. Ferguson is trying to get back in the win column, but Bobby Green is just as hungry to end his losing streak. Over his last several fights, Ferguson has shown shades of his prior greatness but has also had some uninspiring moments. Green has had better form recently and I believe he wins. (Pick: Green)
Consensus: 4-0, Bobby Green
Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland
(via Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports)
Fernando Quiles Jr: Kevin Holland and Michael Chiesa are two fighters who can't seem to kick it to that next gear to move up the 170-pound ladder. Chiesa hasn't fought since 2021 and is trying to snap a two-fight skid. Meanwhile, Holland is fresh off a knockout win over the declining Santiago Ponzinibbio. If Holland's grappling is up to snuff at this point, I think this fight is his for the taking with his effective striking. (Pick: Holland)
Mathew Riddle: You have to worry about Holland, who was almost submitted by Alex "Cowboy" Oliveira a while back, but he's definitely improving. He has great submission offense off of his back, and great unorthodox, powerful striking. Meanwhile, Chiesa looked just as bad as Sean Brady in his last fight, and I don't think it bodes well for "The Maverick." (Pick: Holland)
Drew Beaupré: This is a great matchup of styles, and if Chiesa is able to get things to the ground it’s going to provide a huge test to see how far Holland’s grappling has come along. That being said, Holland is one of the few welterweights that holds a considerable size advantage over Chiesa, so I’ll take “Trailblazer” to keep things standing long enough for him to get the win. (Pick: Holland)
Dan Wade: Kevin Holland is one of the most active and entertaining fighters in the UFC. Any fight with Holland is likely to become a brawl and he has shown he is willing to stand in the pocket and trade punches with anyone. “Trailblazer” has been trying to crack the top-15 of the welterweight division for some time and gets another chance against 12th-ranked Michael Chiesa. The more well-rounded fighter is Chiesa, but I think the striking of Holland will be good enough to get him the win. (Pick: Holland)
Consensus: 4-0, Kevin Holland
READ MORE: UFC ANNOUNCES 5 HUGE FIGHTS FOR AUGUST-SEPTEMBER SCHEDULE
Stick with MMA Knockout for more daily coverage of the UFC and MMA.
Follow MMA Knockout on Twitter and Facebook.