UFC 293 Preview and Predictions

Sean Strickland is in the main event of a UFC pay-per-view.

If you envisioned that at the start of the year, then you deserve some congratulations–and you certainly saw something I did not.

UFC 293 is not the most balanced card, but it offers star power in the marquee with Israel Adesanya defending the middleweight title against Strickland. It marks Adesanya’s first title defense since regaining the belt in April following a spectacular knockout victory over Alex Pereira.

But it was not the fight I was expecting.

Despite a lot of hype and anticipation, Dricus du Plessis is not Adesanya’s opponent. Du Plessis defeated Robert Whittaker in July in shocking fashion; he simply overpowered Whittaker, which is an extremely rare feat. Adesanya then stepped in the ring for a tense staredown, including some intense words, but it surprisingly has yet to materialize into a fight. Du Plessis wanted more time to heal and prepare, so instead, it is Strickland who is attempting to dethrone Adesanya.

Strickland (27-5) is an elite fighter, so this is by no means an attempt to insult him. But I thought he was exposed during his losses to Pereira and Jared Cannonier, both of whom have been defeated by Adesanya. To his credit, Strickland has won his last two fights, but neither Nassourdine Imavov or Abusupiyan Magomedov operate anywhere near the skill level of Adesanya.

The presence of Adesanya (24-2) ensures that this fight will be compelling, and the difference in style should make this fight particularly interesting. Strickland pressures forward, and his offense is centered around volume. But Adesanya has great lateral movement, particularly once his back is toward the cage.

Strickland overwhelms lesser skilled opponents. That was not the case against Pereira, an elite striker who knocked Strickland out. Their fight appears to stand as a coming attraction for what we are about to see tomorrow night.

Adesanya enters as a massive favorite, and rightfully so. If you’re inclined to bet the fight, the smart money is a knockout in under three rounds.

As for the rest of the card, the heavyweight bout pitting Tai Tuivasa against Alexander Volkov stands out. Volkov is more skilled, and he has a longer reach and better kick. If we were comparing who the more technical fighter is, Volkov (36-10) would win every time. But Tuivasa (14-5) is a knockout machine in desperate search of a victory. After losing two in a row, he will be looking to win the only way he knows how, which is by landing that one vicious walkoff blow.

The card also includes a flyweight bout pitting Manel Kape against the largely unknown Felipe dos Santos, who is filling in for Kai Kara-France (who suffered a concussion that is preventing him from competing). There is another battle of heavyweights in Justin Tafa against Austin Lane, which is not the most exciting bout on paper, as well as a sneaky fun light heavyweight bout pitting Tyson Pedro against Anton Turkalj. I really like Pedro here, though he has proven to be an extraordinarily difficult fighter to gauge.

Ultimately, this card is built around the main event. The crowd in Sydney will ideally get a couple of hometown finishes (Tuivasa, Pedro) before Adesanya sends everyone home with a highlight reel victory.

The Pick ‘Em Section:

UFC 293 middleweight title bout: Israel Adesanya (c) vs. Sean Strickland

Pick: Israel Adesanya

UFC 293 heavyweight bout: Alexander Volkov vs. Tai Tuivasa

Pick: Tai Tuivasa

UFC 293 flyweight bout: Manel Kape vs. Felipe dos Santos

Pick: Manel Kape

UFC 293 heavyweight bout: Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane

Pick: Justin Tafa

UFC 293 light heavyweight bout: Tyson Pedro vs. Anton Turkalj

Pick: Tyson Pedro

Last week: 2-3

2023 record: 98-59