Why the A's Could End up Trading Mason Miller
Mason Miller's name has come up in trade scenarios yet again. The first time this happened, it was because he shut down the New York Yankees in the Bronx. This time, it's because Ken Rosenthal reported that teams are inquiring about adding the best closer in baseball.
Miller won't be a free agent until the 2029 campaign is over, and he won't reach arbitration until after next season. He is making the league minimum, $740,000 this year, and next year he'll make $760,000. He also has the most fWAR among all relievers this season (1.2), a 55% strikeout rate, and a -0.14 FIP. He has broken advanced metrics so much that the numbers think he should have a negative ERA. Not a bad ERA, but a negative ERA. That's how dominant he has been on the mound.
Among pitchers with at least ten innings pitched this season, Miller's 55% strikeout rate is 9.1% higher than the second-highest on the list.
Weeks ago there were plenty of jokes going around that the A's would certainly trade him at the deadline, because that's what the A's always do. While that's not necessarily the case with how the A's typically operate (they wait until they're about to hit arbitration, then trade them), it may actually make sense for Oakland to move on from Miller sooner rather than later.
Yes, he is an electrifying talent. A's fans, despite their contempt for the owner, love Miller.
Yet, his injury history, which is why he's serving as the team's closer instead of starting in a bid to keep him healthy, is a bit of a concern until we get through a year or even two with the righty staying healthy. If he were to stay healthy for that time period, the asking price could go up a little bit, but there's also a pretty big risk involved in holding onto him, and he'd have fewer years of team control attached, too.
Rosenthal mentions some top-tier prospects that could be shipped to Oakland in exchange for Miller, and the question that has to be weighing on the front office is when the team feels like they could actually contend. Despite the better-than-expected start (18-21), a playoff spot still feels a little out of reach. Are they thinking next year could be the year they challenge for a postseason berth? When they (supposedly) move to Vegas in 2028? That timeline should dictate what happens here, from a business standpoint.
There's also the elephant in the room to contend with. This is the A's last season in Oakland, which means no fan base is necessarily claiming the team at the moment. If they were going to make this deal happen, this would be the year to do it. Not only would the A's add a prospect or two that could be difference makers in the team's new home, but they also wouldn't have to face any fan backlash for trading Miller.
If the A's are going to truly start spending money on the roster in the coming years, then they only have so much time left to get up to their usual tricks. The question of whether the A's will trade Mason Miller depends upon his health, and the risk they want to take on that front.
JASON BURKE
Jason is the host of the Locked on A's podcast, and the managing editor of Inside the A's. He's a new father and can't wait to take his son to his first baseball game at the Coliseum.