© Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
Braves Prospect Excelling Early in High-A Rome
The Atlanta Braves need to consider promoting one of their potential breakout prospects
The Atlanta Braves are dealing with questions to the rotation after the news of Spencer Strider's UCL injury and subsequent elbow surgery that will sideline him for at least all of 2024.
And while all of Atlanta pays attention to the major league rotation and what's happening in AAA Gwinnett, there's a prospect that's quietly had an amazing start to his season in the lower minors.
Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta's 2nd round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft out of Nebraska, is currently 1-0 with no earned runs allowed in 11.1 inning for High-A Rome. He's struck out seven to only one walk, with five hits and one unearned run on his ledger after his first two starts of the season.
A two-way player at Nebraska, Schwellenbach had Tommy John surgery after the draft and didn't debut for Atlanta until last season. Making thirteen of his sixteen starts for Single-A Augusta, Schwellenbach finished the year with a 5-2 record and 2.49 ERA in his 65 innings pitched. In an atypical return from Tommy John, Schwellenbach's control returned before his "stuff", with only 55 strikeouts (7.6 K/9) but also only 16 walks (2.2 BB/9).
In Schwellebach's final three starts of 2023, all in Rome, he went 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 14 in his 13.2 innings. That finish to the season and a more conventional strikeout rate led many, including us, to predict that Schwellenbach would be 2024's breakout prospect for Atlanta. Ben Sestanovich, assistant general manager for Atlanta and the head of the team's player development, said as much to MLB Pipeline's Jim Callis during spring training:
"Spencer came here a month before Minor League camp started and has looked really good," Sestanovich told Callis. "We lose sight sometimes that last year was his first full year as a pitcher. Going through that year and then having an offseason and knowing what to expect helped him prepare. He's on a similar path as AJ (Smith-Shawver) after his first full year in 2022."
The reference to Smith-Shawver draws attention - a 7th rounder out of high school in 2021, Smith-Shawver spent all of 2022 in Single-A before rocketing from High-A all the way to the majors in 2023. While the estimated debut for Schwellebach isn't until 2025, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him rapidly promoted, and it might be time to go ahead and do that.
Schwellenbach's last start, coming over the weekend against a Hudson Valley team that owns the second-highest run differential in the South Atlantic League, saw him flash four legitimate pitches as he went 5.1 innings with only one unearned run on two hits, walking only one.
In 2023, Atlanta gave Smith-Shawver three starts in High-A before promoting him to AA Mississippi, where he made two starts before going to AAA Gwinnett. Schwellenbach should arguably be on a similar schedule, with a promotion to Double-A coming soon.
Moving into the upper minors would get Schwellenbach a test against better caliber hitters and quality competition - both the Tennessee Smokies (Chicago Cubs affiliate) and the Birmingham Barons (Chicago White Sox affiliate) are rated in MLB Pipeline's ten most 'loaded' minor league teams.
And early indications are that he might already be ready for it.