Braves Executive Discusses Pitching Prospects, Gives Timeline for MLB Debuts

The Atlanta Braves have a lot of pitching, and now we have an idea of when they might make the majors

The Atlanta Braves have invested heavily in pitching prospects over the last few years - more than any other organization, in fact. 

Atlanta's the only MLB team to devote more than 60% of their bonus pool to pitching over the last six drafts, at 61% of all dollars paid to draftees going to pitchers from 2018-2023. 

But the fruits of that investment are evident - Atlanta's top prospects lists are littered with pitching, including the consensus top five. When might those pitching prospects 'ripen'? 

MLB Pipeline's Jim Callis talked to assistant general manager Ben Sestanovich, who oversees Atlanta's player development, to get more info about the heavy focus on pitching and when the team expects those pitching prospects to make their major league debuts. 

Sestanovich confirmed the intention to focus on pitching, explaining it came in 'layers' to Callis: "Last year in the Draft, we spent a bunch of our money up top on college arms. The year before it was more high school arms.

"You never have enough pitching, so having layers of arms coming is certainly the goal. And it has the added benefit of internal competition amongst them, which is a good thing."

Let's look at when Atlanta expects to have some of these players reaching the majors: 

Major league service time in 2024

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AJ Smith-Shawver is expected to play a large role in 2024, as is last year's 1st rounder in Hurston Waldrep. 

Sestanovich confirmed everything we've heard about Smith-Shawver: It just comes down to more innings & more reps for the 20-year-old. "With his athleticism and competitiveness, he got off to a great start last year; we moved him quickly and there was a big league need -- and the rest is history. There's not any single adjustment that he needs to make other than just gaining more experience as a pitcher and refine how he does it. We're ecstatic."

As for Waldrep, there's belief that his 'stuff', led by a splitter that Sestanovich called "the most devastating non-fastball in our system", could work in the majors right now. What would be his role in 2024? That's to be determined. "We view Hurston as a starter," Sestanovich told Callis. "Is it possible that his first taste of the big leagues is as a relief pitcher? Sure. But for us right now, the focus is on him being a starter and we will adjust as necessary."

Spencer Strider is another Braves pitcher who initially debuted as a reliever before moving into the rotation, to great results. While it's not fair to any prospect to compare them to Strider, it's a potential path to an early debut for the righthander. 

2025 debuts

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Sdestanovich confirmed the team is looking towards next season for two top pitching prospects in particular, Spencer Schwellenbach and Jhancarlos Lara. 

Schwellenbach, a 2021 2nd rounder out of Nebraska, has been behind most of his draft peers due to Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2022 season, but the team believes he could progress quickly through the minor league system this season. 

"Spencer came here a month before Minor League camp started and has looked really good," Sestanovich told Callis. "We lose sight sometimes that last year was his first full year as a pitcher. Going through that year and then having an offseason and knowing what to expect helped him prepare. He's on a similar path as AJ after his first full year in 2022."

Similar to Smith-Shawver's 2022, Schwellenbach spent all of 2023 in the lower minors, going 5-2 with a 2.49 ERA in 16 starts between Single-A Augusta (13) and High-A Rome (3). He struck out 55 and walked 16 in his 65 innings pitched. 

Lara, a 2021 international free agent, was at the same affiliates as Schwellenbach last season, making twenty lower-minors appearances, the final two coming in Rome. He went 4-8 with a 4.09 ERA in 81.1 innings, striking out 114 and walking 42.  

2026 Debuts

Virginia Tech Athletics

There's three prominent righties in this timeline, per Sestanovich: Owen Murphy, Cade Kuehler and Drue Hackenberg (pictured above). 

Murphy, 20, was a 1st rounder out of high school in 2022 and followed the same timeline as Lara and Schwellenbach, mostly pitching in Augusta (18 starts) but with his final three games coming for High-A Rome. He went 6-4 with a 4.72 ERA in 89.2 innings, striking out 113 and walking 32. 

Kuehler and Hackenberg were both drafted out of college in the 2nd round last season, with Kuehler coming out of Campbell University and Hackenberg from Virginia Tech. 

Both pitchers made appearances after the draft, but neither finished with more than seven innings. 

This trio will likely start in High-A Rome to open 2024, with goals of getting them to AA Mississippi by the end of the season. 

2027 Debuts

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Sestanovich also named one other pitcher to Callis, giving 2022 1st rounder JR Ritchie an expected major league timeline of 2027. The prep draftee got into four games for Single-A Augusta in 2023 before tearing his UCL and requiring Tommy John surgery, putting him a year behind Murphy. 

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