Will the Braves retain elite starting pitcher?
The Atlanta Braves will have a huge decision to make regarding their starting pitching.
Let's be honest, the Braves have not had the best success when it comes to retaining their star players. Freddie Freeman left and flew across the country to play for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Dansby Swanson left Atlanta for the Windy City and Wrigley Field. Could the Braves see another star leave Atlanta in free agency?
Atlanta's ace pitcher, Max Fried, is set to enter Free Agency at the end of the 2024 season. The Braves and Fried agreed to a $15 Million contract for next season in arbitration. Fried will be turning 31 in 2025 and he is one of the best pitchers in the MLB. He has a career record of 62-26 with a 3.03 ERA. He has pitched in 139 games and struck out 697 hitters in that span.
Fried had another great season in Atlanta last year as he finished with an 8-1 record and a 2.55 ERA. He struck out 80 hitters and walked 18 over that span. What would it cost to try to retain Fried in Free Agency? I would imagine his new contract would draw a similar AAV to what Aaron Nola received this year. Nola signed a seven-year $172 Million contract to stay with the Phillies.
I believe Fried's contract will be similar to Nola's because both of them are their teams' Ace pitchers and they are both around the same age. Nola will be making $24.6 Million a year in Philly starting in 2024. The funny thing about that is that Alex Anthopoulos offered Nola more money than that to try to take him away from Philly. That proves that the Braves have the cash to get the job done, but that may not be enough.
In the same vein as Freddie Freeman, Max Fried is a West Coast kid. Fried was born in Santa Monica, California, and played his high school ball in North Hollywood, California. A lot of analysts believe Fried will be heading back closer to home in Free Agency. Whether that be with the Dodgers, Angels, Giants, or Padres. We have seen the money the Dodgers have lying around for starting pitchers. The Padres and Giants will likely enter the bidding war as well.
At the end of the day, it all comes down to how much AA values Fried. The Braves have a few younger pitchers who are on the cusp of being ready to pitch in the big leagues. Does he value what guys like Darius Vines and Hurston Waldrup bring to the table over what Fried has proven over what will be an eight-year career?
I hope the Braves bring Fried back because I would love to see a fan favorite finally stay in Atlanta, but my hopes of it happening are not high.