Kristian Robinson Makes Successful Return to Pro Ball
This article is part of a series counting down the Diamondbacks Top 30 prospects entering the 2024 season. These rankings are determined by Michael McDermott, in conjunction with the Inside the Diamondbacks staff.
Summary: Kristian Robinson was once viewed as the crown jewel of Arizona's farm system, signing for $2.5 million out of the Bahamas and getting into full season ball in his Age 18 season. An incident with law enforcement in April 2020 resulted in him being unable to play with a minor league affiliate between 2021-2023. Despite that, the organization elected to add him to the 40-man roster while he served out his felony assault sentence. After obtaining his US citizenship in April, Robinson became eligible to participate in affiliated ball again. Despite his lofty ceiling, he is the classic boom/bust prospect with a sky-high ceiling but still carries significant bust risk due to his swing-and-miss.
Rank: 18
Age: 23
Height/Weight: 6'3" 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Tools: Hit 35, Power 60, Run 55, Defense 55, Arm 60, Overall 45
ETA: 2025
What the D-backs are saying about him?
"This has been a really difficult process for him from start to finish. I think he's grown a lot over the period. You forget how young he is, and going through the pandemic, and going through this and not being able to play the game of baseball. We know that he put himself in this situation, but at the same time I think he's very apologetic. He's learned a lot, to see where he is now from where he was from a year ago, he's come a long way." - Director of Player Development Josh Barfield, May 2023
2023 Recap: Robinson was activated from the restricted list on May 2nd, then was immediately assigned to Class A Visalia. Robinson spent time between the complex, Visalia, High-A Hillsboro, and Double-A Amarillo. He managed to get 316 plate appearances between the regular season and the Texas League playoffs, his first since 2019. The season was a reminder of his strengths and weaknesses offensively, putting up a .293/.399/.560 triple slash with 18 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 96/36 strikeout to walk ratio. The fact he was able to assert his offensive strengths in his first year back is a positive sign.
2024 Expectations: The strikeout rate is a significant red flag and something that needs to be improved if Robinson expects to stick in the big leagues. He'll be on a short list of candidates that could be selected in the major league portion of the Rule 5 Draft, but his hit tool creates enough risk that teams may avoid taking him. One telltale sign that could point to that was teams were unwilling to offer a 40-man roster spot for less restrictions than the Rule 5 Draft would provide. The key areas to watch will be strikeout rate and ground ball rate, as we want to see more contact without the reduction in quality of contact. If Robinson makes the necessary adjustments next season, he will be added to the 40-man roster with a potential debut looming at the end of the season.
Projection: Despite all the tools, the hit tool threatens to sink him as a prospect. As mentioned by Nick Piecoro in a Baseball America chat, Robinson has a swing-and-miss rate of 34% of swings on pitches in the strike zone and 40% of his swings. That is comparable to Joey Gallo, who has a 109 OPS+ despite being a career .197 hitter. That profile is less desirable for a right-handed bat, who will only see 150-200 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, which could limit him to a platoon role in the big leagues. If the swing and miss improves drastically, his chances of developing into a big league regular in right field increase as well.
