Offensively, Can Domingo Santana Be Just As Productive As Yasiel Puig?

So, it's not Yasiel Puig. Now what?

In fairness, no one has gotten Puig yet — there‘s an entirely different set of reasons for that — but what the Indians are getting, at least most recently, is a different outfielder (and we use the term outfielder loosely for all but one year of his career) in Domingo Santana, a signing that is reportedly pending a physical.

That leaves us with a lot to sift through, but let’s begin with what this piece is not: A way of selling you on Santana being worth several victories in a projection war that the Twins are winning. Santana is not an answer to Josh Donaldson's arrival in Minnesota. He’s not a guy that was deemed worthy of a multi-year deal, nor is he guaranteed to ever reproduce his 127 wRC+ (100 is league average), .875 OPS and 3.3 fWAR campaign of 2017.

But if you wanted Puig back in Cleveland, this could be a way of demonstrating that, when focusing just on offensive production, the 27-year-old Santana might not be too different from the enigmatic (and endlessly fun) ex-Tribe right fielder. And let’s be honest: Agreeing to a deal with Santana, even with clear flaws of his own, is a lot better than not signing any of the remaining bats, even accounting for the logjam of semi-interesting but flawed in-house options.

So, with that settled, let’s play a little game. Here are the offensive projections for three players with Indians ties entering the 2020 season, courtesy of ZiPS.

Do any of these look somewhat appealing? Circle yes or no.

Player	OPS+	Runs Created per 27 outs
Player A	104	5.5
Player B	114	5.9
Player C	111	5.2

Pencils down.

The first player is Puig.

The second player is current Tribe slugger Franmil Reyes, for comparison sake.

The third is the right-handed hitting Santana.

Other models tell a similar story, as Steamer projects a 111 wRC+ for Puig and a 105 wRC+ for Santana in 2020.

In other words, when compared to Puig, the drop off in projection is almost non-existent. That’s not nothing, and if it seems surprising, that could be the result of the idea of Yasiel Puig being better than Yasiel Puig has actually been.

That's not to say he's a bad player. I would argue that Puig would still fit in the Tribe outfield. He's also just a lot closer to solid than he is the star he appeared to be when he burst onto the scene with the Dodgers.

Given the current state of the outfield -- how are we still talking about the Indians outfield? -- the addition of any slightly above-average bat is better than squinting your eyes and hoping if you stare long enough, the group will transform into an answer like a Magic Eye image.

Does their similarity mean the cheaper Santana, who is reportedly set to earn just over $1 million in 2020 when the deal is finalized, was the better choice?

Well, unfortunately, we don't have clay-animated versions of the two outfielders to battle it out on MTV, so a lot depends on how Santana fits on the roster and what Puig eventually gets in free agency.

If the Indians were using the savings between the pair to upgrade more of their roster (say, on a trade for Dodgers outfielder Joc Pederson?), the answer would be a strong yes. But if the goal was just to save a few extra bucks over the alternative, what's the actual benefit?

That said, Santana can still produce for a team desperately seeking above-average offense of any kind. While his addition probably won't drastically improve the win total, the projections demonstrate his usefulness.

Turning Failing Marks Into Passing Grades

If you’re not going to spend money like you just won the Powerball (or even the 50/50 raffle at your local fair), you need to make sure, at the very least, you avoid giving too many plate appearances to below average offensive players.

Last year, the Indians gave 34 percent of their plate appearances to players that finished 18 percent below league average offensively or worse (not counting pitchers), with 19 percent going to guys with a 66 wRC+ or lower (the Twins, incredibly, gave only 4 percent of their plate appearances to guys with a wRC+ under 93).

You can overcome that to an extent when you have stars. But turning some of those easier outs into something closer to average raises the floor without having to do anything drastic.

To that point, Santana has never finished with a wRC+ lower than 98, posting a 112 wRC+ over his career and generating a 107 last year with the Mariners (remember, 100 is league average run-creation). If healthy -- a real if -- he's probably a safe bet to be above average again.

Continuing the comparison theme, here is how the duo stack up over the past three years, which, in fairness, includes Santana's stellar 2017.

Player (2017-2019)	OPS+	wRC+	xwOBA
Yasiel Puig	112	112	.347
Domingo Santana	114	114	.345

That last column, expected weighted on-base average, takes into account the quality of contact, along with strikeouts and walks, offering a deeper look under the hood. It might not tell the entire story, but it certainly tells a big part of it. As recently as last year, Santana (69th percentile) held the advantage over Puig (53rd percentile) in xwOBA, per Statcast.

Fair Concerns

The lack of much contribution defensively has limited Santana's overall value, having been exactly a replacement level player in 2019 despite being an above-average hitter. Santana was rated a plus defender by all metrics -- defensive runs saved, UZR and outs above average -- in 2017, but that has been the exception.

Puig has consistently rated as a better defender, so it’s understandable why he holds an advantage in ZiPS projected WAR (2.1) over Santana (0.9). In terms of total package, that matters.

But we're strictly talking offense, remember? The Indians appear committed to letting Reyes prove himself in the outfield this spring. We have no idea how that experiment will unfold, but Reyes lost 18 pounds to give it a shot.

As long as it doesn't prove disastrous, it could open up DH at-bats, and Cleveland really needs to worry more about how they will maximize their ability to score runs.

There's also a question of health. Santana missed a chunk of last season due to elbow inflammation, which may have factored into his second-half decline after having a tremendous first half (127 wRC+).

And the strikeouts. Oh, the strikeouts. Those aren't going away.

Can the Indians succeed with a lineup that features two hitters, Santana and Reyes, striking out nearly 30 percent of the time? The Indians, after all, now employ two of the six most frequent strikeouts in baseball. They owned the ninth-lowest team strikeout rate in baseball last season.

The simplistic answer is probably yes, as long as the production comes often enough when they do make contact. The good news for Santana is he's more than capable of hitting the ball out of the park to all fields, so the fact that Progressive Field favors left-handed pull power bats more than the righties shouldn't impact him, as his fly ball spray chart would suggest.

Perhaps the most interesting difference between Puig and Santana, however, is their splits advantage compared to what the Indians lineup is lacking.

Last year aside, Puig has notoriously been better against right-handed pitching throughout his career. Santana, while still 9 percent above average vs. righties in career, enjoys the typical platoon advantage against lefties (119 wRC+).

For all their concerns offensively, Cleveland should fare pretty well against left-handers in 2020, given the option to play Jordan Luplow (198 wRC+ vs. southpaws in 2019). Righties, though, still might be an issue, hence why re-introducing Puig's reverse splits or adding a left-handed hitting option was appealing. Having four switch-hitters in the lineup helps provide balance, but for once, the Indians' problem isn't right-handed power bats.

One added benefit to Santana, though, is an additional year of control. Given the 27-year-old was non-tendered by Seattle with two years of arbitration control remaining, the Indians, if they so choose, could control Santana in 2021 through a final year of arbitration.

So, 1,000 words later, what have we established? Santana is a flawed player with limitations that cap his overall value, so expectations should be set accordingly. But when offensively compared to Puig, their production doesn't project to be all that different, and there's a good chance Santana helps raise their floor a bit.