New York Mets Projected For Potential Playoff Push
The New York Mets have made a lot of moves this offseason, including new leadership in the front office and in the dugout.
But will it be enough to turn the Mets into winners again? Baseball Prospectus projects that all of the moves the Mets have made just might.
The Mets fell far short of expectations in 2023, as they won just 75 games and traded away three pitchers — Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and David Robertson — in an effort to get younger and re-stock their farm system.
Baseball Prospectus released its latest PECOTA projected standings for the 2024 season. PECOTA stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, which is Baseball Prospectus’ proprietary system that projects player and team performance.
BP uses thousands of simulations to produces ranges of wins for each team based on a variety of criteria. But the standings are developed to project where everyone will finish.
So, how much will the Mets improve? Well, BP is projecting the Mets to win 83.3 games. That would make the Mets the final NL Wild Card team.
That would be a significant turnaround for the Mets in spite of not making a “marquee” signing this offseason.
Atlanta is projected to win the NL East with 100.3 wins, followed by Philadelphia’s 85.0 wins.
The Mets brought in a new president of baseball operations in David Stearns and he hired Carlos Mendoza to take over as manager. Mendoza replaced Buck Showalter.
Still, the projects are tenuous. For instance, the Mets are projected to have a 48.1% chance of making the playoffs, with most of that (45.5%) weighted toward the Wild Card playoffs. From there, the Mets have a 24.3% chance to reach the divisional playoffs and just a 1.3% chance of reaching the World Series.
But, as the saying goes, “So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
