Philadelphia Phillies Disrespected in Latest NL East Title Odds Projection

Despite the incredible start, the Philadelphia Phillies still aren't expected to win their division.

Mar 31, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto (10) reacts after hitting a fly ball against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

The plan coming into this year was for the Philadelphia Phillies to get off to a fast start.

After dealing with issues that ultimately got Joe Girardi fired during the season in 2022, injuries were what plagued this team in 2023 after multiple impact players were missing from the lineup.

When getting through Spring Training with a very clean bill of health, the sky was the limit for what the Phillies could do after back-to-back deep playoff runs.

So far, it's been better than even they might have imagined.

Philadelphia is off to their best start in 50 years and don't show any signs of slowing down as their rotation is the best in the league and their offense is still waiting for some of their sluggers to break out of their slumps.

Knowing this, and given the six-game cushion they've provided themselves in the NL East race at this point in the year, it seems like a given the Phillies would be expected to win their first divisional title since 2011.

However, FanGraphs isn't quite there yet.

In their updated projections, they still have the Atlanta Braves as their favorites to win the NL East for the seventh consecutive time with a 51.8 percent chance. Philadelphia sits with a 48.1 percent chance.

The Braves have not looked like the same team who has dominated the regular season the past couple years, but they could also be regressing after hitting the ball so well during this time. Based on their past profile, it's hard to count them out of the race even with this deficit, which is probably what FanGraphs are factoring into their predictions.

However, it's clear that the Phillies are a better baseball team than their archrivals right now.

Maybe that changes by the time the calendar gets through the summer, but if Philadelphia was looking for a way to stay motivated amid this hot start, then this certainly gives them a reason.