Why the Phillies Should Stay Away From Sonny Gray
Aaron Nola is officially a free agent. And while he has expressed a desire to remain with the Philadelphia Phillies, they have to be prepared for the possibility that he signs elsewhere.
MLB insider Jon Morosi reported on Wednesday that in the event Nola leaves, the Phillies would become top suitors for Sonny Gray. Not only is Gray an All-Star, but he was also a former college teammate of Philadelphia's pitching coach Caleb Cotham.
Personal connection aside, Gray wouldn't be a great replacement for Nola for a couple of reasons.
For starters, Gray just turned 34, which is pretty old for a baseball player. Most players have long since retired by then, but Gray is still going. If the Phillies sign him to a multi-year deal, there's a good chance they're signing up for the decline phase of his career. There's also a real risk that he may not even be physically able to finish the contract, depending on how long it is.
Gray's age would be less of a concern if he was more durable, but he's been fairly injury-prone over the course of his career. Last year marked his first full season since 2019, as he's become an annual visitor to the IL. From 2016-2023 (excluding 2020), he averaged 26.4 starts and 146.3 innings per year, which means you can usually count on him to miss a good chunk of the season.
Lastly, his lack of success in a big market is concerning. He's flourished for small-market teams like the Cincinnati Reds and Minnesota Twins, but his two seasons were the New York Yankees were the worst of his career. Gray went 15-16 with a 4.51 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP with the Yankees, suggesting that he's not capable of handling a high-pressure environment (he's also 1-3 in six postseason starts, for what it's worth).
Don't get me wrong, Gray is a really good pitcher. He's a three-time All-Star and just led the majors in FIP, so he'd be a great addition to any rotation. But he's not a durable, big-game pitcher in his prime like Nola.
If the Phillies want to sign Gray, that's fine. But if they're expecting him to replace Nola, they're probably going to be disappointed.
