Potential Post-Lockout Roster Additions, Part II: Rangers Bolster Rotation Via Trade
The baseball world is eagerly anticipating the end of the ninth work stoppage in the game's history. Once it's over, the chaos that will ensue will likely trump the madness that took place in the days before the owners locked out the players when the previous Collective Bargaining Agreement expired. 141 big-league free agents need to find work and clubs need to settle typical offseason business—salary arbitration, trades, the Rule 5 draft, etc.—in a significantly smaller window.
Even after dropping over half a billion dollars on free agents, the Texas Rangers still plan to add more to their roster. Thus, we have started a series looking at a number of potential moves the Rangers could make once the lockout is over. In the first installment, we looked at the possibility of trading for Oakland Athletics first baseman Matt Olson, though starting pitching and outfield are the two primary areas the Rangers will look to address. This leads us to something a bit more realistic: a trade with the Cincinnati Reds for a starting pitcher.
That sounds generic, but there are three hurlers the Rangers inquired about before Major League business shut down due to the lockout. According to MLB Network's Jon Morosi, the Rangers reached out to the Cincinnati Reds about acquiring Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle or Sonny Gray via trade.
All three pitchers would bring something different to the table, which also means the necessary trade package would likely differ between the trio. Even so, all three pitchers are under club control through the 2023 season.
Luis Castillo offers the most star power, and would require the highest asking price. The Reds did not get the return they needed when they sold off Johnny Cueto or Aroldis Chapman, so them asking for suitors to overpay should not come as any surprise. Over the past three seasons, Castillo ranks 10th among starting pitchers with a 10.4 fWAR, so he's their best bet to get a big return.
Tyler Mahle is coming off the best season of the trio. He's also the youngest, and will be entering his age 27 season in 2022. Mahle went 13-6 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, and was one of only 24 pitchers to log at least 180 innings in 2021. He also pitched well in the truncated 2020 season (137 ERA+). However, Mahle was not nearly as effective in 2018-19, when he logged a 5.06 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the two seasons.
Castillo and Mahle are both in their second years of arbitration. MLB Trade Rumors projects Castillo to earn $7.6 million and Mahle to earn $5.6 million in 2022.
Sonny Gray is the most experienced and most expensive of the Reds pitchers, but may require the lowest asking price. He's still had recent success with an All-Star season in 2019, though he has not put together consecutive years of dominance like he did with Oakland at the start of his career. In 2021, Gray went 7-9 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. However, he is still a productive starter that can lead the Rangers rotation, and could potentially fare better in a more pitcher-friendly environment like Globe Life Field. The Reds' home, Great American Ballpark, is one of the more hitter-friendly parks in the game.
Gray is under a Major League contract, and is due $10.37 million in 2022. He also has a $12 million club option and a $1 million trade assignment bonus.
Between Castillo and Mahle, the latter might be a bit more likely. The Rangers might not be willing to meet the high asking price for Castillo, which would likely require at least an established big leaguer and a top-100 prospect. Mahle is younger, trending upwards and would cost less in trade capital.
As for Gray, the Rangers likely wouldn't have to part with one of their five prospects in MLB.com's Top 100. However, it might still require a couple top-15 prospects in the organization. The Rangers have superb depth in the middle infield after the Corey Seager and Marcus Semien signings, and can afford with utilizing that depth to bolster the rotation.
What's most important for a trade—for any of the three, but especially Castillo and Mahle—is trying to lock any of them up beyond 2023. The Rangers are likely not going to be a contender in 2022, so any moves made have to be geared toward 2023 and beyond.
Of the three, a trade for Gray seems the most likely. The Rangers have expressed the desire to acquire established veterans who can help lead a young rotation, and Gray fits the bill. In addition, there were multiple reports earlier in the offseason that the Reds were not going to part with Castillo or Mahle. So, if there's any chance they change their mind, the Rangers would likely have to overpay. That obviously may not be worth it, given where they are in the latter stages of their rebuild.
However, as we've seen with this offseason so far, virtually nothing is off the table.
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