Rangers Opening Day Roster Projection 3.0
Predicting the Texas Rangers Opening Day roster at the beginning of camp was pretty much a crapshoot.
In the field, the only guaranteed spots were Joey Gallo in right field and Isiah Kiner-Falefa at shortstop. On the pitching side, outside of Kyle Gibson leading the rotation, a lot of it was using your best educated guess. Everything else was just throwing your hands in the air and shouting out a random name, hoping you'd somehow be correct.
Outside of the players currently injured, everyone else in Projection 1.0 is still in consideration for the Opening Day roster. The Rangers pack up and go home in five days. That's my humble brag of the spring.
But before my head gets too big for my deteriorating shoulders, I have one more projection for you. Before we get to it, here is a projected look at where the injured Rangers will start the season.
Injured List
10-day IL: LF Willie Calhoun, LHP Joely Rodríguez, LHP Brett Martin, LHP Joe Palumbo, RHP Demarcus Evans
60-day IL: RHP Jonathan Hernández, RHP José Leclerc, LHP Brock Burke
There isn't a clear timetable, but the Rangers like Willie Calhoun's progress as he comes back from a groin injury. Brett Martin is a week behind being ready for Opening Day, while Joely Rodríguez is two weeks behind. Joe Palumbo is on a similar timetable as Martin, but may take a bit more time to be ready since he will be built up for more innings.
The Rangers don't think Demarcus Evans will need to go on the 60-day IL to start the season, but his recovery time from his lat injury is still unknown.
It's all but guaranteed that Jonathan Hernández starts on the 60-day IL, and things don't look good for José Leclerc on that front either. Like Evans, the Rangers don't want to start Burke on the 60-day IL, but with the start of the Triple-A season delayed, it may be the shrewd move as he works his way back from major shoulder surgery in 2020.
Now, on to the main event...
Catcher (2)
Jose Trevino, Jonah Heim
Not much has changed since Projection 2.0 came out eight days ago. Jose Trevino has a great rapport with the pitching staff, and has fully embraced a leadership role in the clubhouse.
Jonah Heim has done plenty in camp to earn a job, highlighted by his defensive prowess behind the plate. In simpler terms, the dude's got a bazooka back there, and several pitchers like the big target he provides for them.
Infield (6)
1B Nate Lowe, 2B Nick Solak, 3B Rougned Odor, SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 1B Ronald Guzmán, INF Charlie Culberson*
*- non-roster invitee
No changes to the list of names here, but I'm flip-flopping at first base. I'm going with Nate Lowe. I could easily be wrong here. Both Lowe and Ronald Guzmán have had wonderful springs, each in their own way.
This is a welcomed sight for the Rangers after how the first base competition went in 2020. Due to the injury to Willie Calhoun, there is room for both Lowe and Guzmán on the roster.
Chris Woodward confirmed on Monday that Nick Solak has earned a spot in the lineup every day. He's playing his cards close to the chest about whether or not he's the everyday second baseman, but the writing is on the wall.
Same for Rougned Odor at third base. He's looked like a natural at the hot corner, and while he hasn't put up the typical astronomical Cactus League numbers, he's had a good spring in a different way.
I'm sticking with Charlie Culberson as the utility infielder. He's the most versatile option, and he's swung the bat very well. He's a non-roster invitee, but the Rangers outrighted RHP Joe Gatto to Triple-A Round Rock on Monday, so there is an open spot on the 40-man roster.
Outfield (5)
LF David Dahl, CF Leody Taveras, RF Joey Gallo, DH/LF Khris Davis, OF Eli White
I'm sticking with the same five outfielders from Projection 2.0, in the same roles.
Joey Gallo is an automatic lock in right field. Go ahead and make David Dahl a lock in left field as well. Khris Davis' bat has come alive over the past week, which all but solidifies the Rangers' desire to have him hit in the middle of the order.
This really comes down to Leody Taveras and Eli White. They're neck-and-neck right now, but White has had a couple of bad days at the plate recently. Meanwhile, Taveras started off slowly, but has trended in the right direction ever since.
At this point of the spring, I don't have to tell you that you want to be trending up, not down. However, both have done enough this spring to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster.
Starting Rotation (7)
Three traditional starters: RHP Kyle Gibson, RHP Mike Foltynewicz, RHP Kohei Arihara
Two tandem roles: RHP Dane Dunning, LHP Taylor Hearn, RHP Kyle Cody, LHP Wes Benjamin
Let's make the first part simple. Kyle Gibson, Mike Foltynewicz, and Kohei Arihara will be traditional starters.
Now, for the tandem roles. I'm pairing Dane Dunning with Taylor Hearn, and Kyle Cody with Wes Benjamin. Really, you could swap them either way, putting either righty with either lefty.
Chris Woodward has sung Wes Benjamin's praises all spring, and Taylor Hearn has shown the ability to sustain his stuff over multiple innings. Woodward also confirmed on Tuesday that ideally, they would prefer the tandem roles to be righty-lefty because of the matchup issues they could cause.
The Rangers have several decisions to make with their pitching staff over the next several days, and it's a very fluid situation. There are a lot of variables and moving parts. The roster could look one way on Opening Day and look completely different in just a week's time.
Bullpen (6)
RHP Matt Bush*, RHP Ian Kennedy*, RHP Hunter Wood*, RHP Brett de Geus**, LHP Kolby Allard, RHP Jordan Lyles
*- non-roster invitee
**- Rule 5 draft pick
Do me a favor and scroll back up and take a look at the projected Injured List.
- Jonathan Hernández
- José Leclerc
- Demarcus Evans
- Joely Rodríguez
- Brett Martin
Of my six projected bullpen spots, five of them — FIVE! —would be occupied by the list above.
That is not just a decimation, but an obliteration of what was looked at as a strength of the team at the beginning of camp.
Thankfully, three non-roster guys and Rule 5 draft pick Brett de Geus have had solid springs. Bush and Kennedy provide valuable experience in the back end of the bullpen, and have done plenty to earn their spots. Hunter Wood, a former starter, can provide some flexibility as a multi-inning reliever.
The placement of Hernández, Leclerc, and Burke on the 60-day IL would allow the Rangers to add Kennedy, Bush, and Wood without making any painful roster moves.
Jordan Lyles could very well be in one of the tandem roles, while bringing either Hearn or Benjamin into the bullpen as a long reliever. As stated previously, the Rangers prefer to have the tandem roles be righty-lefty. However, Chris Woodward also confirmed on Tuesday it isn't carved into stone either.
To reemphasize, lots of moving parts here.
Kolby Allard has quietly had a good spring. He and the pitching coaches have worked on some mechanical adjustments, and they've resulted in good numbers in Cactus League action (3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 13 strikeouts in nine innings). The Rangers may reward him with a multi-inning role out of the bullpen.
If there's an immediate next-man-up, it's likely Hyeon-jong Yang. The Rangers love his ability to throw innings. Chris Woodward has mentioned the possibility of him working out at the alternate site, and being ready to pounce as soon as an opportunity presents itself.
Yang being a non-roster invitee puts him at an unfair advantage. Only so many non-roster guys can be added without risking too many losses off the 40-man roster.
Right-hander Josh Sborz shouldn't be forgotten either. He's had a good camp, and the Rangers really like him. However, he has options and the club may go with a left-handed option in the bullpen to start the season.
Promo photo: Kelly Gavin / Courtesy of the Texas Rangers
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Chris Halicke covers the Texas Rangers for InsideTheRangers.com. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisHalicke.
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