Rangers 2022 Roster Projection 3.0.2: Could Kershaw Actually Come Home?
From the first time we started projecting the Texas Rangers 2022 Opening Day roster, it was clear we would see its fair share of makeovers throughout the course of the winter. After the Rangers dedicated over half a billion dollars in free agency, this is the largest shakeup thus far.
With Major League Baseball in its first work stoppage in 26 years, the free agent and trade markets are frozen until a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is signed. So this seems like a perfect time to come out with the next version of our 2022 Rangers roster projections.
These projections account for the players currently on the roster, and any potential acquisitions that may happen after the lockout is over and free agency can resume. Last time, we took a look at the position players. Now, it's time to project the pitching staff.
Starter No. 1: LHP Clayton Kershaw
Projection 1.0: Clayton Kershaw
Projection 2.0: Clayton Kershaw
It's been talked about for a long time, and even a lockout can't quell the fire on the Hot Stove regarding Clayton Kershaw. Until a new CBA is signed and actual activity on the free agent market can resume, the speculation of Kershaw playing for his hometown team will remain. And really, there are just two factors that stand in the way.
Kershaw missed considerable time with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2021, and then went down for the entire postseason after re-aggravating his left forearm. It's pretty clear that the 33-year-old is on the back-nine of his career, and it may be too risky to bring him in if the medical reports don't come back with positive news. He will likely begin his offseason throwing program this month, so there will eventually be a clearer picture of his 2022 outlook by the time the lockout is over.
When healthy, Kershaw still posted a 3.55 ERA, 3.00 FIP and 1.02 WHIP in 121 2/3 innings over 22 starts in 2021. It's not the Kershaw of old, but he can still get the job done on the mound. The medical reports will be key in when and where he plays in 2022.
The second factor is Kershaw's legacy as a Dodger. When he goes into the Hall of Fame, he'll undoubtedly be donning the L.A. cap. So it's a lot easier to say Kershaw will opt to leave the only team he's played for in his career than to actually see it come to fruition.
However, let's not ignore that the Rangers may have some sort of home field advantage—not in terms of price or discounts, but in comfort. Prior to the season, Kershaw expressed a desire to spend more time with family. He and his family reside in Dallas during the offseason, the Kershaws just welcomed their fourth child into the world last week and the oldest child in the family is now of school age.
Even though the World Series monkey is off his back, Kershaw is still dedicated to winning. The Rangers dropping over half a billion dollars on free agents—which included building the best middle infield in baseball—is a signal to all other free agents that the Rangers are pivoting toward contention.
Considering all factors, it just may be enough to sway Kershaw.
Starter No. 2: RHP Jon Gray
Projection 1.0: Dane Dunning
Projection 2.0: Dane Dunning
$56 million of the $561.2 million dedicated to free-agent signings belongs to new starting pitcher Jon Gray. The Rangers set out to add multiple starters to the rotation this winter, and Gray is a solid addition to the group.
Gray, 30, is a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm, though he currently slots in at the top of the Rangers rotation. Through seven seasons with the Colorado Rockies, the Oklahoma native has posted a 53-49 record with a 4.59 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. The ERA mark may not excite fans, but Gray's career 3.91 FIP and 107 ERA+ could translate to better numbers in a pitcher-friendly environment like Globe Life Field as opposed to a hitter's paradise like Coors Field.
The Rangers believe they are getting a potential ace with this signing, and in all honesty, Gray comes with a high floor. If he produces like a solid No. 4 pitcher, the $14 million AAV is not a bad price. Anything greater than that—which the Rangers believe they'll get—could be a major steal.
Starter No. 3: RHP Dane Dunning
Projection 1.0: Spencer Howard
Projection 2.0: Taylor Hearn
Being the main piece acquired in the Lance Lynn trade, there were going to be sizable expectations for Dane Dunning. All in all, the Rangers got everything they needed from him in 2021. Until a trip to the COVID-19 Injured List derailed his season, he was arguably the most consistent starter the Rangers had in 2021—all while pitching on an innings limit to protect his health after barely pitching the previous two years.
While the 4.51 ERA and 1.44 WHIP don't jump off the page, a 3.94 FIP might better reflect the value Dunning brings to the table. There's definitely room for growth, but with the ability to pitch more innings next year, the Rangers Pitcher of the Year showed more than enough to earn a spot in the 2022 rotation.
Starter No. 4: LHP Taylor Hearn
Projection 1.0: Taylor Hearn
Projection 2.0: Spencer Howard
The Rangers' hashtag on social media is #StraightUpTX, and Taylor Hearn straight up seized a job this year. He came into 2021 as the back end of a tandem role and pitched his way into being a full-time starter. Manager Chris Woodward even called Hearn one of the "biggest bright spots" of the season. In addition, the Dallas-Fort Worth chapter of the BBWAA named Hearn the winner of the Richard Durrett Hardest Working Man award.
Hearn's growth included changes on the mound, like pitching exclusively out of the stretch. He also added a sinker this year that gave him more confidence to attack the strike zone. The 4.82 FIP might scare off some fans, but the drastic improvement in issuing walks was a huge step in the right direction for Hearn.
Hearn still has to win a starting job in spring training next year, but he'll go into Surprise as one of the heavy favorites.
Starter No. 5: RHP Spencer Howard
Projection 1.0: Kohei Arihara
Projection 2.0: Jordan Lyles
Fans didn't get the look at Spencer Howard that they wanted this season. The Rangers had to handle him with kid gloves after acquiring him from Philadelphia, and the changes they want to make in his mechanics and delivery may not truly take shape until next year.
However, the Rangers had sought after Howard for quite some time. He was once the No. 1 prospect in the Phillies organization, and Howard flashed the stuff he is capable of in the short time he was able to pitch in a Rangers uniform. But 2022 will be Howard's first true audition for a permanent spot in the rotation. He'll be able to go through the right offseason program and head into spring training ready to take on a full starter's role.
Howard might have an innings limit of some kind next season due to the lack of innings in 2021. But, like they did with Dane Dunning this season, there is no doubt the Rangers would like to get a long look at Howard in the 2022 rotation.
Long Reliever: LHP Kolby Allard
Projection 1.0: Kolby Allard
Projection 2.0: Kolby Allard
Instead of having A.J. Alexy or Glenn Otto pitch out of the bullpen, the Rangers could have them start the season at Triple-A Round Rock to put some finishing touches in their development. That being said, a lot can happen between now and next April.
Since I currently have Alexy and Otto in Round Rock to start 2022, Kolby Allard slots in the long relief role. 2021 was a bit of an up-and-down year for Allard. There were times when he looked like he had everything figured out. Then there were times we looked like the guy that got rocked in 2020. Even so, he can give the Rangers length and innings next season, which makes him a candidate for an Opening Day spot in 2022.
It will be a critical year for Allard. With more pitching from the pipeline on the way (Alexy, Otto, Cole Winn, Jake Latz and many more), Allard will need to separate himself and pitch his way into a full-time starting role, much like Taylor Hearn did in 2021. If not, he could be left behind.
Middle Relief 1: RHP Josh Sborz
Projection 1.0: Josh Sborz
Projection 2.0: Josh Sborz
2021 was an inconsistent season for Josh Sborz. He pitched his way into high-leverage situations early in the season, but couldn't execute as well in those spots. The eventual return of Jonathan Hernández and José Leclerc in the bullpen by June next season will help deepen the bullpen, giving Sborz an opportunity to pitch in more manageable situations.
Sborz's 3.97 ERA and 1.42 WHIP aren't great for a reliever, but he misses a good amount of bats with a 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9). He has a lively fastball that the Rangers like, and if they can get him to attack hitters more consistently, Sborz could pitch his way into a bigger role in 2022.
Middle Relief 2: LHP John King
Projection 1.0: John King
Projection 2.0: John King
Injuries derailed John King's 2021 season. But before a shoulder injury shortened his campaign, he was pitching his way into a starter's role before Taylor Hearn got his opportunity.
King has nasty stuff and generates a lot of swings and misses and gets hitters to chase his devastating changeup out of the zone. He could get a chance at a do-over in 2022, starting the season in a relief role. However, the Rangers showed during the trade deadline that they are willing to part with him, as he was initially part of the trade that sent Joey Gallo to New York.
Taking that into account, it's very possible that King could be used as an asset in a trade to address another area of the roster. Or, he could once again pitch well enough to make a run at a spot in the rotation.
Middle Relief 3: RHP Dennis Santana
Projection 1.0: Dennis Santana
Projection 2.0: Dennis Santana
Along with DJ Peters, Dennis Santana is another former Dodger that the Rangers swiped during the 2021 season. He also fared much better in Texas than he did in Los Angeles.
After posting a 6.00 ERA, 1.93 WHIP and 4.8 K/9 in 16 appearances with the Dodgers, Santana earned the trust of manager Chris Woodward as the season went along. In his 39 appearances with the Rangers, Santana posted a 3.63 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 8.6 K/9—all drastic improvements from before the June 17 trade.
Santana was especially strong in the final month of the season, posting a 0.69 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 14 appearances. There is more than enough intrigue coupled with tangible results for first dibs at a spot in the 2022 bullpen. In addition, Santana is out of minor league options. That paves a clearer path to a spot on the 2022 Opening Day roster.
Middle Relief 4: RHP Nick Snyder
Projection 1.0: Demarcus Evans
Projection 2.0: Demarcus Evans
The Rangers like Demarcus Evans, and Chris Woodward believes he is still part of the Rangers future. However, the intrigue around Nick Snyder could create an interesting competition in spring training.
Snyder's first big-league stint was very short. After posting a 4.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in four appearances, a shoulder injury ended his season. Thankfully, he is expected to go into spring training with a clean bill of health. The 25-year-old right-hander has an electric fastball that averaged 98.7 mph and topped out at 100.6 mph. If he can learn to control it, that's a dangerous weapon for any bullpen.
Even so, don't count Evans out. Woodward said near the end of the 2021 season that he was proud of the growth that Evans showed this season, though it didn't show up in the numbers. Though Evans has never been a flamethrower, it will be interesting to see if he can get his fastball velocity back up to where it was when he made his debut in 2020. Evans' fastball averaged just 91 mph in 2021, which is almost three mph slower than it was the previous year.
Setup 1: LHP Brett Martin
Projection 1.0: Brett Martin
Projection 2.0: Brett Martin
No surprise here. From beginning to end, Brett Martin was the most consistent reliever for the Rangers in 2021. Martin led the pitching staff with 66 appearances and posted a 3.18 ERA in 62 1/3 innings of work.
That'll do.
If the Rangers decide to sell next July, Martin could be a valuable piece. He just entered his first of now four arbitration years, and is under club control through 2025. Established, controllable assets have never been more valuable.
If the Rangers are more competitive than expected in 2022, they have a valuable, homegrown left-handed reliever that can pitch in a variety of roles out of the bullpen.
Setup 2: RHP Spencer Patton
Projection 1.0: Spencer Patton
Projection 2.0: Spencer Patton
After coming over from Japan, Spencer Patton came in and did a stand up job after joining the team in June. He pitched in a variety of roles out of the bullpen, and even recorded two saves after the Rangers parted with closer Ian Kennedy at the trade deadline. In 42 1/3 innings, he posted a respectable 3.83 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
Unless the Rangers break tradition and sign a free-agent reliever to pitch in a late-inning role, and with Jonathan Hernández and José Leclerc not being able to return from Tommy John surgery until late May or early June, Patton could be in line for high-leverage innings to start the 2022 season.
Closer: RHP Joe Barlow
Projection 1.0: Joe Barlow
Projection 2.0: Joe Barlow
Without a doubt, Joe Barlow was the biggest development out of the bullpen for the Rangers in 2021. He went on an absolute tear from July 7 through Aug. 15, pitching 12 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings. Barlow pitched his way into the closer's role after Kennedy was traded, and succeeded greatly.
Overall, Barlow posted a 1.55 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 29 innings, while displaying an "ice in his veins" mentality on the mound. High-leverage innings didn't rattle Barlow, which puts him in line to be the team's closer to start 2022 and continued usage in high-leverage spots moving forward.
We'll just have to wait and see what happens once Jonathan Hernández and his 98-mph "turbo sinkers" return to the bullpen.
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