New Report Implies Guardians' Shane Bieber Is Realistic Red Sox Trade Target
The Boston Red Sox have a chance to add the frontline starter they desperately need to bolster the outlook of the franchise both in the short and long term.
While a blockbuster move is out of the cards this summer given the team's performance and the organization's priority of building up the farm system, there reportedly still is at least one deal that would move the needle without costing the team a slew of top prospects.
"The Athletic’s Zack Meisel makes a compelling case for why the Guardians should trade Shane Bieber, but rival executives are not convinced the 2020 American League Cy Young winner will fetch a significant return," The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal wrote Wednesday.
"Since 2020, Bieber’s average fastball velocity has dropped from 94.1 to 91.2 mph, and his strikeout rate has fallen from 41.1 percent to 16.3. Per Statcast, the hard-hit rate against him this season ranks among the highest in the league.
“'I can’t say with 100% certainty he’s a playoff difference-maker,' said an executive who was granted anonymity so he could speak candidly. 'He may help you get there, but I don’t know that he’s the answer in the playoffs.'"
Bieber captured not only the American League Cy Young Award but the infamous pitcher triple crown of most wins, strikeouts and lowest ERA. in the shortened 2020 season.
The two-time All-Star went 43-21 with a 2.91 ERA, with a 30.3% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate, .222 batting average against and a 1.05 WHIP in 588 1/3 innings across 93 games (92 starts) from 2019 to 2022.
This season Bieber has posted a 3.57 ERA with a 16.3% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate, .261 batting average against and 1.28 WHIP in 80 2/3 innings across a league-leading 13 starts and 338 batters faced.
There's a lot of talk about Bieber's off year, but if he was able to maintain his current numbers, he'd still be the unequivical ace of the Red Sox's staff.
Seeing the velocity tail off at just 28 years old is concerning but he's also much more likely to get it back than if this drop were to happen a few more years down the line. Whether his current issue is caused by an ailment or mechanical issue, he'll likely find his mid 90s fastball once again.
Bieber is a buy-low candidate for a Red Sox team that hasn't warrented going all-in for the top of the market. Bieber could be the perfect upside play, especially because he still would be the most consistent starter on the team even at his worst.
Bieber is under contract through 2024 and could either be extended next season or traded at the following trade deadline if Boston does not turn a corner -- which would allow them to recoup some of their losses in the farm system from the original deal.
Even at his lowest value Bieber will cost a decent haul of prospects but the Red Sox need a dependable frontline starter more than anything else on the roster and have the means to not only acquire him but to keep him here long term. Bieber would be an unlikely but perfect addition to the Red Sox.
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