Can Edward Olivares Play His Way Into Forcing the Royals’ Hand?
In Major League Baseball spring training, there's a player who is hitting the absolutely cover off the baseball in a five-game sample size.
The aforementioned player, in 13 at-bats, has eight hits. His .615 batting average is accompanied by a 1.385 SLG and an OPS of 2.000. He has a pair of doubles, a triple, two home runs and four RBIs thus far. By some accounts and measurements, he's been the best spring training player in all of baseball.
That player is Kansas City Royals outfielder Edward Olivares.
Mar 21, 2022; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Kansas City Royals base runner Edward Olivares steals second base against the Los Angeles Angels during spring training at Tempe Diablo Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Olivares, who has just over an entire year of MLB service time under his belt, is entering his age-26 season. He's no longer the young prospect with pop in his bat and potential that can allow teams to turn a blind eye to his defensive shortcomings. He's a player on the verge of his athletic prime who's had a few cups of coffee in the major leagues, yet he's also a player who has yet to stand out when given the chance to do so. Time is running out. With the Royals, though, he hasn't always gotten a fair shake.
Take last season for example. In 39 games with the Royals, Olivares posted a .238/.291/.406 line, good for an OPS under .700 and a wRC+ of 88. Those numbers, combined with well below average (and possibly just flat-out bad) defense in the outfield, didn't paint the picture of a player ready for a bigger role. On the flip side, he never saw the field for an extended or consistent period of time. Olivares traveled between Omaha and Kansas City countless times in 2021, making it difficult for him to settle into a groove. Another problem that presents itself is that he's too good for minor league pitching when he does settle in.
In 66 games with the Storm Chasers in 2021, Olivares was magnificent. He hit .313 with a .559 SLG and a scorching 155 wRC+. He increased his walk rate to 9.9% — the highest it had been since his time in High-A with the Toronto Blue Jays organization in 2017. He also lowered his strikeout rate to 15.8%, which was the lowest it had been since rookie ball in 2014. 15 home runs and a video game-like .246 ISO in 292 plate appearances made Olivares' power look obvious, but he was also simply good in general. He appeared to be ready for something more challenging.
This spring, facing the biggest make-or-break point of his baseball career, Olivares looks different. He's locked in, hitting the ball extremely well and even appears to be more comfortable in the outfield. Not only is he embracing a massive challenge, but he's rising to the occasion.
Can he keep this up? The easy answer is no, as the astronomical numbers will inevitably come way down as spring training ensues. Can Olivares continue to play quality baseball, though? Absolutely. If his improvements are real, there's no reason to suggest he isn't capable of performing at the plate and becoming at least an adequate defender. The power has never been in question, and he's shown in the minor leagues that he's too good for that. Is he good enough for a long-term role with the Royals? That remains to be seen, and all he can do is control what he can control.
Michael A. Taylor and Andrew Benintendi are projected to take up quite a few innings in the outfield. There's little reason for Benintendi to be anything other than an everyday starter and while Taylor's production at the plate is anemic, he's one of the best defenders in the sport. The Royals value that a ton.
With a potential infield of Bobby Witt Jr., Adalberto Mondesi and Nicky Lopez occupying third base, shortstop and second base on a semi-regular basis, that leaves, Whit Merrifield playing in right field. After all of that, primarily, Kyle Isbel and Olivares would be competing for reps in either center field or right field. That's a lot to decipher for manager Mike Matheny on a daily basis, so having one or two players make his decision for him would alleviate some of the calculus involved.
It's extremely early, as a few bad games in a row could render Olivares' start to the spring unimportant. The more he strings good ones together, though, the harder it makes it for the Royals to send him down to Triple-A and keep him there in 2022. It's the biggest year of his career and thus far, he's acing the test. It's up to Olivares to do his best to ultimately force the Royals' hand for April and beyond.
