It’s Time to Be Honest and Fair About Adalberto Mondesi
Disclaimer: I, too, am an Adalberto Mondesi fan, but I'm also a realist when it comes to baseball. When fellow Inside the Royals writer Jerry Edwards tweeted about Mondesi this week, it prompted this deep dive.
As anyone who follows the Kansas City Royals is well aware, Mondesi has the potential to be one of the better players in MLB if he gets going. He was projected early on to be a five-tool player who could blossom into a superstar with the right development. The issue is that he hasn't shown a lot of that talent for too long of a period of time. He's only flashed here and there for stretches.
Let's get into the one good season Mondesi has had to begin. In 2018, his slash line was .276/.306/.498 with an OPS of .804. This looks good on the surface, but he only played 75 games and logged just 291 plate appearances. One might argue that is still good, but Mondesi has played over 100 games once in his career and he didn't perform as good offensively in that campaign compared to this one.
Going a tad deeper on Mondesi's 2018 season, he had a wOBA of .341 and a wRC+ of 113 — above league average for both. This season was also Mondesi's best year for power, as he posted a career-high SLG (.498) and a career-high ISO (.222). Those numbers are really good for any player, let alone a shortstop.
To add to Mondesi's power in 2018, he also had 32 swiped bags. That was second on the team in 2018, with Whit Merrifield having a league-leading 45 stolen bases. Mondesi was eighth that season behind the likes of Trea Turner, Billy Hamilton, and Mallex Smith. This led to him having a PwrSpd (power/speed number) of 19.5, a career-high.
With four of the five tools covered, there isn't a stat that correlates with arm strength at the moment but let's get into Mondesi's fielding numbers from 2018. That year was his fourth-best defensive season with 2.3 fielding runs. Other fielding stats say something different, though, as his UZR was 3.4 and his OAA was 3, both of which are slightly above league average. The big issue arises with his DRS. In those terms, it was Mondesi's worst defensive season at -6. That's far from great for an alleged good (or even elite) defensive shortstop.
Mondesi's 2019 season was also intriguing. At the plate, he put together a below-average season while playing a career-high 102 games. He had an 81 wRC+ with a .298 wOBA, as well as a -3.9 in FanGraphs' value for offense. That isn't good, but Mondesi still managed to duplicate his WAR from 2018 (2.5) in 2019 due to his glove.
This is the season that Mondesi made a name for himself defensively, as he was well above average in most defensive metrics. His UZR was almost three times higher in 2019 than 2018 at 9.1, and his OAA and DRS were both good at 11 OAA and 6 DRS. According to fielding runs above average, Mondesi had a very good 9.3.
Of his "best" years, which would be 2018-2021, Mondesi's combined slash line for those seasons is .256/.291/.448 with an OPS of .739, which is respectable. Over that stretch, his wRC+ is 93 and his wOBA is .313, which is around league average. This is an issue for a player who was such a highly-touted prospect, as he was supposed to be the face of the Royals. The harsh truth is that it hasn't happened and it won't ever happen.
Mondesi has had a lot of issues throughout his career. The main ones are his ability to stay on the field, his strikeout and walk rates, and also his defense. The late point is debatable, but keep in mind that he was graded highly back in the day for his glove and arm. Initial expectations must be remembered, too. The obvious issue is Mondesi's health. As noted earlier, his career-high in played games is 102 and he has only played a full season once. He did so in 2020 during a pandemic-shortened campaign that spanned just 60 games. He played in 59 of them.
Two constant negatives to Mondesi's bat were (and are) his tendency to strikeout so often and his lack of ability to draw walks. Mondesi has a career BB rate of 4.4% with a career K-rate of 30.2%. While that would be relatively fine if he slugged close to the .550-.600 range, he simply doesn't. His career-low strikeout rate was in 2018 at 26.5% and in that season, he also walked at a career-low 3.8% clip. Mondesi has never learned or implemented how to stop striking out or how to take a walk.
Let's move on to career defense. To say that Mondesi has been disappointing with his glove would be accurate for his career. His best seasons defensively were 2018-2020 where he had one great season and two decent ones. The one thing Mondesi could fall back on if his bat wasn't there was his defense (to a degree), but his defense is not better than Nicky Lopez at SS. His speed, to be fair, is flat-out elite, though.
Mondesi's career has been observed through rose-colored glasses by many but in reality, he has underperformed in almost every aspect of his game. While he's a fun player to watch and brings great value when he's "on," it's worth considering that the only way he possibly sniffs his potential is on a team other than the Royals.
Fans bought the potential of Mondesi and built up the hype when he debuted, but those expectations — as well as that early call-up — probably hurt him more than helped. He really never got to develop a lot in the minors and was just 20 years of age in his debut season. One quote from his scouting report from Baseball Prospectus describes Mondesi's main critique: "There's big risk here because Mondesi is still a very young player with a long way to go with the bat." Regardless of what shape his career takes from this point forward, it's fair to conclude that there's some left to be desired in multiple aspects of the game right now.
