Royals Free Agent Pitching Targets: Michael Wacha
The starting pitching market may not be filled with stars at the moment, but there are still some good options to fill out a rotation. One such option for the Kansas City Royals is a former top prospect of the St. Louis Cardinals and now journeyman, Michael Wacha.
Wacha is coming off his best season since 2017 in terms of fWAR (3.1 in '17), finishing the 2022 campaign with a 1.5 fWAR with the Boston Red Sox as a No. 3 or No. 4 starter in that rotation. Starting with the basic numbers, Wacha had a 3.32 ERA, 7.35 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, and a 1.27 HR/9. These are pretty solid for a third/fourth starter in most MLB rotations. Let's dive deeper into what made Wacha successful in 2022.
Two stats that stand out for Wacha are his LOB% and BABIP. Wacha stranded an above-average amount of runners at 80.3% and had an insanely low BABIP at .260. To add to this, Wacha also got back to generating more groundballs at 41.0%, which he had trouble doing in his previous two seasons. The biggest improvement, however, lies in the type of contact he gave up last year.
One major issue Wacha had in the 2020 and 2021 seasons was his hard-hit% being 43% or higher. In 2022 though, Wacha's hard-hit% dropped to 35.4% which is 0.4 points below the league average. While these numbers are good, some of the expected numbers tell a different story.
While Wacha had a 3.32 ERA, his expected ERA, FIP and BABIP indicate that he got a tad lucky in 2022. His expected ERA was 4.56 and his FIP was 4.14 to go along with that .260 BABIP. This could be a cause for concern, as it seems Wacha both got lucky and had a good defense, but the Royals will probably have a good defense again this year so that shouldn't be a huge worry in particular.
One major concern for Wacha comes with his pitch repertoire. According to Run Values, Wacha's four-seam fastball had some problems with a run value of 9. It gets hit a lot (.287 average), as well as getting slugged at a .537 clip. One positive that stands out from his run value chart is that he has decreased his four-seam use every season since 2019.
Staying with run values, Wacha has two good pitches: his changeup and cutter. Their respective run values are -9 for the changeup and -6 for the cutter. Neither got hit at a good rate (both at .230 or lower) as well as not getting slugged (both lower than .400).
One more plus to take away from Wacha's 2022 season was that he was really good until September and October. Also of note: he didn't pitch in July due to a shoulder injury. At one point, Wacha had a 2.52 ERA before imploding at the end of the year with a 5.57 ERA in the final months.
Michael Wacha, in terms of 2022 stats, is the younger and better version of Jordan Lyles (minus the innings-eater trait). Due to that, Spotrac has Wacha's market value at $11.9 million, which would be more expensive than Lyles. If the Royals wanted another starting pitcher for a couple of seasons, then offering Wacha a two- or three-year deal worth $12 million annually with an opt-out would be a good move on their end.
