Nicky Lopez Isn’t Succeeding at His Game, Which Is Concerning
The keys to Nicky Lopez's breakout 2021 season were his patient approach at the plate and his should've been Gold Glove-winning defense at shortstop. His 25 Outs Above Average (OAA) led the league, and his excellent walk and strikeout rates made him a tough out for most pitchers. So what changed between last season and this season for the Kansas City Royals infielder?
Let's start at the offensive side of the ball, as that was the critical component to his breakout. Last season, Lopez had a slash line of .300/.365/.378 with an OPS of .743. This line was a career-high in all three spots for Lopez. The underlying numbers were also really good for Lopez.
Jul 16, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Nicky Lopez (8) is congratulated after the game against the Baltimore Orioles at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Some of the underlying numbers explain Lopez's OBP and his knack to work many at-bats. The most important stat for this is his low Whiff%, which calculates swings and misses based on the number of swings — his was 15.4%. If we look at SwStr%, which is the percentage of swings and misses on all pitches, Lopez carried a flat 6%. Both of these show how patient he was last season. When he swung the bat, he usually fouled it off or put it in play.
This season, however, Lopez's SwStr% has gone up to 8.4% and his whiff% has also gone up to 16.8%. This doesn't seem like a huge uptick but another stat that has taken a huge hit for Lopez is his Z-Contact%, which is the percentage of swings that have made contact with the ball inside the strike zone. It was a very good 92.8% in 2021, but this year it has dropped to an 83.2%. While it may not look like a huge deal based on his 14.9 K% this year, there is cause for concern when a contact specialist is not making as much contact on premium pitches.
These are only the small part of the problem, as the biggest part is that the Royals do not play at Kauffman Stadium for 162 games. Away from the home confines, Lopez has been abysmal, with a slash of .113/.242/.113. This is the true concern when it comes to Lopez's struggles. The last area that has regressed a lot is Lopez's BABIP (read, luck) as that has regressed from .347 to .229. Some regression was expected going into the year, but not this much. Lopez's luck has evaporated thus far.
Lopez also has a terrible average exit velocity of 83.2 mph, which is in the bottom 1% of the league, and a HardHit% of 21.4% (also in the bottom 1%). These are issues, but they come with Lopez's high-contact and soft-contact approach. The regression hasn't been solely at the plate, either.
Jul 18, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals second baseman Nicky Lopez (8) throws to first base against the Baltimore Orioles during the second inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
It might be weird to say this (or read this), but Lopez has been very average in the field this year. His OAA is -1, which is alright, but not for a guy coming off a league-leading 25 the year beforehand. Also of note: Lopez has always had a positive OAA in his career, so this start is concerning.
The more basic statistics have also regressed, with his fielding percentage being .958 due to three errors so far this year. In 2021, he had only seven errors all year and a fielding percentage of .987. In this writer's opinion, the defensive numbers will rebound and Lopez will continue playing strong on that end, but his struggles early are worrisome nonetheless.
Lopez had a rough start last season when he was recalled to replace Adalberto Mondesi, and it took him two months to get it together and have a breakout year. He doesn't need to replicate last year's success, but he does need to at least get back into his normal defensive form and be better at the plate to be a two-win player. If he can't snap out of his slow start, this regression will become even more alarming.
