Vinnie Pasquantino Is Ending the Season on an Absolute Tear
In this story:
Earlier in the season, the story with Vinnie Pasquantino was that while his processes were exquisite, his results weren't catching up. Once those aligned, the Kansas City Royals' rookie first baseman caught fire and was showing exactly why he belongs with the big-league club for years to come.
On the year, Pasquantino is slashing .291/.381/.441 with an 11.9% walk rate, 11.5% strikeout rate and .150 ISO in 69 games. His 135 wRC+ ranks first on the team entering Monday's play. He's been nothing short of stellar in his debut campaign, raising questions as to why the Royals took so long to call him up in the first place. MLB readiness aside, however, Pasquantino has been legit for quite some time now.
A shoulder injury in late August saw Pasquantino land on the injured list and miss some time but upon his return on Sept. 9, there's been no rust. On the contrary, the 24-year-old has been one of the very best hitters in baseball since coming off the IL and is closing out his rookie season on his terms. In 20 games since his return, the 'Italian Nightmare' or 'Italian Breakfast' (take your pick) is slashing .361/.453/.458 — good for a .912 OPS — with four doubles, a home run and 10 RBIs.
The impressive numbers don't stop there, though. Among all qualified hitters during the aforementioned stretch, Pasquantino's 164 wRC+ ranks 20th. Using those same parameters, his 14% walk rate is 16th in all of baseball. He's sixth in OBP and fifth in strikeout rate. Not only is Pasquantino cementing himself as a legitimate force for the Royals, but he's doing so on a leaguewide basis in the process. The scariest part is that his plate discipline numbers and his general approach at the plate remain mostly unchanged. The game is slowing down for him, and his stats are on the rise despite him experiencing a power outage of sorts at the same exact time.
When comparing Pasquantino's numbers since his return on Sept. 9 to his 2022 numbers as a whole, it's easy to see that he doesn't have the same "pop" in his bat. Not only is his ISO down, but he's barrelling the ball 3.3% less often and recording hard hits 6.5% less of the time. His average exit velocity is down 2.2 mph, and his launch angle is down 3.1 degrees.
Pasquantino is hitting fly balls 40% of the time this season, but that percentage since his return is just 35.8. All of that, combined with more changeups being thrown his way (17.1% on the year versus 23.1% in the last 20 games) and even worse success (-1.49 wCH/C in 2022 versus -4.13 wCH/C in the last 20 games) against the offering makes for a pretty glaring and explainable lack of power.
The good news for the Royals, though, is that Pasquantino's advanced approach at the plate isn't going anywhere. He'll continue to walk and strike out at somewhat close to the same rate if he maintains his integrity as a hitter, and his OBP should remain elite. The exit velocity, hard-hit data and overall power project to come back around. While Pasquantino doesn't quite have the raw power of a Nick Pratto, but his lowest ISO in his entire minor league career was .250. His .150 figure in 2022 should improve moving forward.
This season hasn't been a very productive one for the Royals, but they did learn over the past several months that Bobby Witt Jr. and MJ Melendez are sure-fire franchise centerpieces. While Pratto has struggled to enter that conversation, Pasquantino has a seemingly permanent seat at that table. With one of the highest floors in the organization and plenty of room still left over for things to click on all levels, the last few weeks of his rookie campaign have only further shown what Kansas City already knew.
