Royals Starter Daniel Lynch Has Turned His Season Around
Daniel Lynch is widely considered the best pitching prospect in the Royals farm system, also ranked as the number two overall prospect behind phenom shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. Naturally, when the Royals called him up earlier in May, fans were looking forward to seeing what the young arm could do.
Lynch's first three career starts, all against AL Central foes, went poorly as he gave up 15 runs (14 earned), had a K:BB ratio of 7:5 and had a WHIP of 2.88. Another problem that stemmed from these starts was Lynch tipping his pitches. After these starts and glaring problems, he got sent down to work on his craft.
For the two months, while he was in Triple-A, Lynch continued to struggle. He had an ERA of 5.84, a WHIP of 1.614, and he was allowing a lot of hits (H/9 checking in at 11.7). These numbers did not really warrant a call-up, but the Royals probably saw that he allowed fewer walks with a BB/9 of 2.8 and a K/9 of 9.8.
Fast forward to Aug. 18th, the day after his start against the Houston Astros, and Daniel Lynch has put together a couple of gems against some tough offenses. Since his call-up on July 25th, Lynch has gone at least six innings in three of his five starts. The opponents in those starts were the Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays and the Astros.
Those teams are all pretty good offensively. The Tigers, at that time, were one of the hottest-hitting offenses. Lynch only gave up four earned runs combined in those starts, shutting out the aforementioned Tigers. The other two starts saw Lynch either struggle to get out quickly or walks killed his starts.
Minus the hiccup against the Yankees, Lynch has looked like a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter in any rotation. In the second half of the season, Lynch has a very solid opposing batter slash of .216/.293/.342, along with a better K/BB ratio of 2.18 compared to his first-half K/BB ratio of 1.40.
Some other key stats that help show his development are his LOB% (left on base percentage), BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and his line-drive rate. In his second call-up, these stats have improved immensely from god-awful numbers to really good.
While the numbers look good, Lynch still needs to work on his control and continue to develop his pitches more — especially his fastball. Currently, for the main pitches Lynch throws his 4-seam, slider, and changeup, the spin rates for those offerings (in revolutions per minute) are 2129 RPM, 2093 RPM and 1722 RPM, respectively. All of these are relatively average, but the problem lies with his 4-seam and changeup getting hit a lot.
Lynch's fastball and changeup are currently getting hit to the tune of a .348 average combined. While both have been getting hit a good amount, he has gotten a little unlucky with his changeup. The xBA, or expected batting average, on that pitch is .198. His fastball, on the other hand, is getting crushed with a slugging percentage of .594.
With all of his pitches, Lynch has a good floor and has the chance to make at least three plus pitches. This would be fantastic for the future of the Royals and his career. For comparison, Danny Duffy has similar pitch-mixes and spin rates, and this year he has been elite when healthy.
Daniel Lynch may have gotten his career off to a bad start, but we are already seeing his development into an ace or number two in the current rotation. With some more time in the majors and a good offseason, the Royals may have their stud of the future all wrapped up.
