The Ceiling of Vinnie Pasquantino Shouldn’t Be Undersold
The legend of Vinnie Pasquantino started when he was shredding minor league pitching and the fans were clamoring for his call-up. On June 27, Kansas City Royals fans got what they wanted. Pasquantino may have started slow, but now he figured some things out and has looked like a stud at first base and DH.
Let's start with that slow start first. From his debut through the end of July, Pasquantino had a slash line of .219/.322/.324 with an OPS of .646. The issue he was having early on was his groundball rate (45.7%) and his pull rate, which was also above 40%. This poses an issue as a line-drive-to-flyball hitter, and this is apparent with Pasquantino's batted ball splits so far this season. Also of note: he has a hard-hit rate of 51% while having a BABIP around .240, so he was a tad unlucky as well.
On grounders, Pasquantino is slashing .197/.197/.213 with an OPS of .410 and a 7 wRC+ — not great for him early on with the groundball rate. He is significantly better on fly balls, slashing .246/.242/.705 with an OPS of .947 and a wRC+ of 152. On line drives, he has a slugging% of .720 with an OPS of 1.480 with a wRC+ of 342.
On the year, his bad stretch included, Pasquantino has a .263/.350/.434 slash line with a .784 OPS and a 123 wRC+. He's also sporting a nice 11.0% BB rate as well as a 13.5 K rate, which are both similar to his figures in the minor leagues. The only "issue" for his is his dip in ISO (.171) from the minors and his BABIP being .270. The power decline makes sense, but he just seems to have bad luck (he has typically had a BABIP in the .300 range). Let's get into one of the more satisfying parts of Pasquantino's numbers: his batted ball data.
This may come as a surprise, but in most of Pasquantino's batted ball data he is around league average. Then there is his fly ball rate (30.2%), barrel% (10.7%), and Solid% (7.4%). One might ask why is the fly ball rate being higher is good, and it's because Pasquantino has been very good in the past at getting those out of the park (around 18%). Right now, his HR/FB rate is at 12.9%, so expect that to be around 18% once the season ends. The barrel and Solid% are really good and are backed up by his near 50% hard-hit rate (49.7%).
Another masterpiece of data for Pasquantino lies in his plate discipline stats. To start on an odd note, he only swings at 45.6% of all pitches he sees, which is a bit low, but the other number is awe-inspiring. He only swings at 29.1% of pitches out of the zone, and only 69.2% in the zone. When combining that terrific discipline with his contact%, it's easy to see the advanced approach Pasquantino has.
Looking at Pasquantino's O-contact% (outside k-zone contact) shows a flat 76.0%. His Z-contact% is absurd as well at 92.1%. Looking at just contact across the board he, is at 86.1%. Pasquantino is, in terms of plate discipline data, a slightly better Nicky Lopez. When they swing, they tend to hit the ball, and neither player whiffs a whole lot (both post under 20 whiff%).
Pasquantino is not known for being a good defensive first baseman, but he hasn't been a slouch either. In terms of Outs Above Average, he has been solid at +2. Pasquantino also has a UZR of 1.0, which isn't bad. His fielding runs above average is also at 1.7 but due to him being a first baseman, his defensive overall value is -2.9. In short, he has been a solid first baseman thus far.
The Royals might have a "dude," and maybe even a star, in Pasquantino. His elite plate approach and bat-to-ball skills will always have him being a solid to an above-average hitter. If he was a tad luckier, he might already be considered a star. He is also a solid defender at first base. Pasquantino may only have 200 career plate appearances in the big leagues, but he is already showing that he has the potential to be one of the best bats in the league for years to come.
