The Kansas City Royals Have an Adalberto Mondesi Problem
When Adalberto Mondesi became the first player in Major League Baseball history to debut in the World Series, a certain aura was cast around him. He became the Kansas City Royals' highly-regarded prospect who showed up for the first time under the biggest of stages. He was suddenly larger than his profile.
Then he came crashing back down to earth.
Mar 24, 2021; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi against the Los Angeles Angels during a Spring Training game at Tempe Diablo Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Over the next two years, Mondesi played in just 72 games at the big-league level. Over the course of 2016 and 2017 with the Royals, he posted a .181/.226/.271 line with a 28 wRC+. He struck out a staggering 33.5% of the time at the plate. Sure, the defensive and baserunning flashes were there, but Mondesi clearly wasn't ready during his age-20 and age-21 seasons.
2018, though, was a breakthrough campaign for Mondesi. Not only did he post a career-low 26.5% strikeout rate in 75 games, but he also hit for a career-best .276 batting average. It was the only time in his career that he got on base more than 30% of the time. He posted a 113 wRC+ and was worth 2.5 fWAR. By all accounts, those flashes were turning into legitimate production (when healthy).
Then, he came crashing back down to earth again.
In the three years following his career campaign, Mondesi played in just 196 games. In 812 plate appearances, he was good for an 85 wRC+, a .255 batting average and a .289 OBP. He still wasn't walking much at all and was still striking out a ton. Additionally, his health remained a massive red flag. Mondesi's offseason approach was tweaked in an effort to keep him on the field more often, and it's worked. Mondesi has yet to miss a game this season.
With that said, things still haven't worked out as planned.
Apr 10, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi (27) fields a ground ball during the seventh inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
With injuries out of the equation to begin the year, Mondesi is thriving on defense and the basepaths. Those two elements of his game will always be stellar so long as he's healthy and in his athletic prime. At 26 years old, he's right in the thick of it for a baseball player. On the flip side — and more importantly — Mondesi is struggling more than ever at the plate.
In 14 games this season (51 plate appearances), Mondesi is slashing .125/.176/.125 with an OPS of .301. He has a total of six hits and three walks to a staggering 20 strikeouts. His strikeout percentage is 39.2%. The raw power that once made him such a can't-miss prospect is gone, as his ISO is reading triple-zeroes in 2022. His OPS+ is -9 and his wRC+ is -13. Aside from hitting the ball relatively hard, Mondesi is doing next to nothing on offense.
When a player is failing in multiple aspects at the plate, three things that can help provide context are age, experience and track record. If a struggling player is young, such as Bobby Witt Jr., it's reasonable to withhold judgment for a while. If a struggling player simply hasn't seen the field a ton, such as Edward Olivares, a lack of opportunity can be used to explain lackluster production. If a struggling player has a history of success, such as Whit Merrifield, they're viewed as more likely to snap out of it.
Unfortunately for the Royals, none of those descriptors apply to Mondesi. He's no longer a "young" player, as he's set to turn 27 in July. He's no longer inexperienced, as he has more than 1,200 at-bats under his belt. His track record of proven success (or lack thereof) has already been discussed. Despite doing everything right to limit injuries to this point in the season, it still hasn't mattered for Mondesi.
Mondesi is the same player he was when he entered the Royals' system: a fast-as-heck, smooth-fielding shortstop with some pop in his bat. He's also the same strikeout-heavy, walk-averse player whose lack of plate discipline limits him from ever tapping into his potential. This no longer seems to be a situation where more seasoning or a more ironed-out routine can benefit Mondesi. With each passing game, it becomes more and more likely that he simply is what he is.
Jun 20, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi (27) celebrates after hitting a ground rule double in the third inning against the Boston Red Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
It's entirely possible that Mondesi heats up soon. In fact, it seems inevitable that he begins to play at least a bit better than he is right now. Then again, what will a hot stretch accomplish? He's been one of the streakiest players in all of baseball throughout his entire career. A few good weeks or even a great month won't mean he's fixed. This is the sad reality that the Royals have to brace themselves to face at some point.
Kansas City put all of its eggs in one basket when it made room for Mondesi to be the everyday shortstop this season. Witt moved off his natural position, Merrifield went from being a Gold Glove-caliber second baseman to a merely solid right fielder, and Nicky Lopez turned in an elite campaign at shortstop just to get kicked back over to second base. Many people are accommodating Mondesi so he can get his career back on track, and the early returns are quite demoralizing.
Perhaps Mondesi can become an outlier and get back to his 2018 form. He doesn't even have to be better than that in order for the Royals to get value out of him. On the other hand, that was one half-season out of something that's been in the works for over a half-decade. As the building blocks for the future of Kansas City baseball are supposed to be getting sorted out in 2022, Mondesi may be forcing his way out of the picture. It's still early in the season, but the Royals have just as big of a problem on their hands now as they did years ago.
