The Carlos Santana Train Should Be Reaching Its Destination Soon
Many are wondering why the Kansas City Royals are currently employing Carlos Santana.
The answer, in a vacuum, is simple: $10.5 million.
Sure, there's some nuance involved (that will be discussed momentarily) but for a small-market team that is notorious for not spending a ton on players, Santana's 2022 salary makes up a significant chunk of their payroll. The Royals have reason — whether right or wrong — to keep playing him in an effort to get the most out of their investment.
Sep 18, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman Carlos Santana (41) hits a single against the Seattle Mariners in the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
With that said, Santana is an objectively sunk cost at this point. The end of his Royals tenure should be approaching very soon, and that stems from a couple of reasons and possibilities. All of them start with him, but they also involve other players and teams alike.
First, the simple fact exists that Santana isn't what he used to be. He's hitting the ball harder this season than he did last year and he's still walking quite a bit (as is his trademark), but the production isn't good enough to warrant any consistent play. In 31 games this season, the 36-year-old is hitting .160 with a .264 SLG and a .104 ISO. Per FanGraphs, he's been worth negative 0.2 WAR, even with great on-base ability intact.
The main incentive the Royals have to continue playing Santana is so he can possibly heat up, rebuild his value a bit and net the club something in a trade. That's sound logic, and Santana is hitting .219 in his last eight games with a respectable wRC+ of 93. When extending the sample size out to 10 games, however, those respective figures fall to .194 and 71. At 15 games, they're .200 and 78. At 20 games, they're .197 and 82. No matter how you slice it, Santana hasn't even been a league-average hitter during his "hot" stretch of play.
Rebuilding trade value isn't quite a moot point just yet, but it's getting close. Unless Santana can catch fire and look like his early-2021 self for a few weeks in a row, no contender is going to show any interest in him. The Royals likely know that but are instead using the excuse of their top first base prospects not being ready as a cover for it. That leads to the other main reason why Santana's days are probably numbered.
At least one of the two prospects is ready.
Mar 27, 2022; Mesa, Arizona, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Vinnie Pasquantino (73) at bat in the second inning during a spring training game against the Chicago Cubs at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports
In 42 games with the Triple-A Omaha Storm Chasers, Vinnie Pasquantino is slashing .296/.396/.638 with a wRC+ of 168. He's projected to slash .264/.347/.467 the rest of the way this season. In his last seven games, he's hitting .516 with seven doubles and four home runs.
There isn't anything left for Pasquantino to do at the minor league level. He's a mature hitter, he gets on base a ton, he doesn't have much room for growth on defense or the basepaths and he's also 24 years old. The time is now for him to be logging big-league innings, and Santana is in his way.
Nick Pratto is also putting up pretty darn good numbers in Omaha. Despite hitting just .227 on the year, Pratto's elite walk rate (16.5%) has his OBP sitting at a tidy .367. He also possesses some of the best raw power in all of Minor League Baseball, and his 125 wRC+ is more than respectable.
There's a serious element of swing-and-miss to Pratto's game, however, which does provide a reason for him to continue developing in Triple-A. Still, it's hard to imagine him not performing at least a bit better than Santana currently is with the Royals. If he got promoted soon, his highs would be worth the lows. Either way, the point remains that Kansas City has someone ready to roll.
Mar 27, 2022; Mesa, Arizona, USA; Kansas City Royals infielder Nick Pratto (32) at bat in the third inning during a spring training game against the Chicago Cubs at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports
Unless Santana is one of the best hitters in baseball for the next few weeks, it makes very little sense for the Royals to continue playing him. The odds of that happening are so low that it almost seems like a pipe dream to give him that chance in the first place. Whether the end destination of the Santana train is being designated for assignment or being shipped out of Kansas City via trade, the timeline likely remains the same: it's probably reaching that point soon.
