Top Three Royals Non-Tender Candidates for 2022 Offseason
As the Kansas City Royals continue the early stages of their 2022 offseason, they'll soon have some tough calls to make on the roster front.
Right now, the club has $31.75 million on the books next year for the trio of Hunter Dozier, Michael A. Taylor and Salvador Perez. When adding MLB Trade Rumors' projected figures for arbitration-eligible players (Kansas City has 11 of them) into the fold, that number is narrowly eclipsed ($32.6M). All of that is without any potential free agent acquisitions or any contract extensions for current young players so while the Royals undoubtedly have some room to spend money this offseason, they'll have to make smart decisions as well.
Part of that process involves non-tendering players (choosing not to negotiate new deals with them) who are either underperforming, will make too much money in 2023, or both. Kansas City has multiple players under one or two of those umbrellas, so let's take a look at some of the top candidates to possibly become free agents in the very near future.
1. Ryan O'Hearn
Estimated salary in 2023: $1.5M
It seems ages ago that Ryan O'Hearn burst onto the scene as a rookie and clobbered 12 home runs in just 44 games as a rookie while posting a 154 OPS+ and looking like a legitimate force in the Royals' lineup. Since then, in 298 games and 901 plate appearances, he's slashed just .211/.282/.351 with 26 home runs. O'Hearn was brought back to Kansas City for another year last offseason and while he did have some good moments on a pinch-hit basis, his 72 wRC+ wasn't nearly inspiring enough to convince anyone outside the organization that he's worthy of keeping around in 2023.
O'Hearn's time in Kansas City is likely up, as his power at the plate is greatly overestimated and his "defensive versatility" is a moot point. Although the 29-year-old can play some right field in addition to serving as either a first baseman or designated hitter, he isn't a plus defender and his anemic bat makes him a negative overall contributor even on a bad team. O'Hearn is too good for Triple-A pitching but not good enough to have consistent success against big leaguers and because of that, he makes a ton of sense as a non-tender candidate this offseason. Time will tell if the Royals follow through with that soon.
2. Brad Keller
Estimated salary in 2023: $7M
If Brad Keller came with a significantly lower estimated price tag next season, he'd be a solid option to keep around. Despite his struggles in 2021 and 2022, his track record before that was impressive and his age (27) makes him a player who perhaps could still benefit from the Royals' next pitching coach. On a value deal, whether as a starter or bullpen piece, Keller can contribute. With such a high estimated salary, however, he becomes a clear non-tender candidate given his recent performance.
This year, Keller went 6-14 with a 5.09 ERA in 139.2 innings pitched. As a starter, the veteran's season got off to an impressive launch before derailing and ultimately leading to him being demoted to the bullpen. As a reliever, Keller's 6.23 ERA and 25 hits given up in just 17.1 innings both proved to be quite uninspiring figures. There's a place for Keller somewhere as someone who can flirt with league-average production as a starter for a good chunk of the year but questions about his ability to have sustained success, avoid injuries and put the proverbial puzzle pieces together make him a risky investment.
With the savings they'd get from non-tendering Keller, Kansas City could put that money to good use for a veteran starting pitcher elsewhere. Keller experienced some terrific highs as a Royal but in a profession that asks what players have done lately, his answers to that question simply aren't good enough to justify going through the arbitration process and landing anywhere near $7M.
3. Luke Weaver
Estimated salary in 2023: $3M
When Luke Weaver was acquired by the Royals near this year's MLB trade deadline, it was fair to point at his 2.69 FIP and .434 BABIP and argue that positive regression was in the cards. His 19 strikeouts in 16.1 innings before being traded also opened the door for that line of thinking even more. In a seemingly low-stakes trade, Kansas City was banking on being able to "fix" a veteran reliever and turn him into a valuable piece of the bullpen. While Weaver maintained a low FIP in Kansas City, his overall numbers weren't much better.
In 19.1 innings with the Royals this summer, Weaver spun a 5.59 ERA and allowed 28 hits and 15 runs (12 earned) while striking out 19 hitters and walking eight. His improvement in ERA+ was noticeable (53 in Arizona and 74 in Kansas City) but from a wider lens, he still didn't produce at anywhere close to a league-average level. Weaver has one more year of club control under his belt before hitting the free agent market next offseason, but the Royals can replace a player of his caliber for cheaper than he'll presumably make in arbitration. He's a solid non-tender bet.
Honorable Mention: Adalberto Mondesi
Estimated salary in 2023: $3M
The Adalberto Mondesi rollercoaster hasn't been known to slow down for anyone, but it's still worth questioning whether it will finally come to a complete stop this offseason in Kansas City. The club has been giving the uber-talented shortstop chances for more than a half-dozen seasons and continues to get the short end of the stick when it does so. Mondesi played in 15 games this season before suffering a torn ACL and missing the rest of the year, which was yet another injury to mark down on a long list of ailments he's had in recent seasons. One could make a case for Mondesi being non-tendered based solely on his availability (or lack thereof).
The other element to consider is that Mondesi simply hasn't been a good hitter when in the lineup. Prior to his ACL injury, he was slashing .140/.204/.140 in 54 plate appearances. In the three seasons prior, he posted an average of 85 in the wRC+ department. Mondesi is a high-strikeout, low-discipline, streaky offensive player whose speed is his major saving grace. If the Royals are serious about putting together a winning batting order, Mondesi may not be the right man for the job. His defensive ability and athleticism are two major calling cards that could earn him one more year as a Royal, but it's far from a foregone conclusion that he's tendered an offer. Mondesi's situation is worth monitoring this offseason.
