PECOTA projections give Twins solid shot at World Series
How does 88 or 89 wins for the Twins sound? That's what the respected PECOTA engine is firing up in its annual MLB forecast.
What are the PECOTA projections? It's Baseball Prospectus' product and it using smart simulations to estimate a range of games a team might win over the coure of the grueling 162-game season.
For the 2024 Minnesota Twins, the range of outcomes is somewhere between a winning percentage of under .500 to about .640, which would, in a rough estimate, be anywhere from about 75 to 100 wins.
The range of winning percentages for teams in the AL Central, according to PECOTA.
Baseball Prospectus
PECOTA's most likely outcome puts Minnesota at 88.3 wins, which the model has determined would be likely to be good enough to win the AL Central.
The numbers also say Minnesota has a 74.7% chance to make the playoffs, 53.7% chance to advance to the divisional round of the playoffs and a 6.8% chance to win the World Series.
Only the Yankees (11.7%) and Astros (10.1%) have better PECOTA odds than Minnesota (among American League teams) to win the World Series.
The National League features two heavily-favored clubs, the Dodgers (19.9%) and Braves (19.3%). So overall, the Twins have the fifth-best PECOTA odds to win it all.
Comparatively, FanGraphs is projecting 85 wins and an AL Central title for the Twins, including a 3.8% chance to win the World Series.
Oct 4, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins players celebrate after defeating the Toronto Blue Jays during game two of the Wildcard series for the 2023 MLB playoffs at Target Field.
Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
