Why Yankees Are Poised to Dominate Boston's Newest Starting Pitcher, Martin Perez
In Wednesday's edition of SI Insider, Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci explained why he believes Martin Perez – who signed a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox this past offseason – is bound to have a bounce-back year in 2020.
Verducci presented a valid argument, explaining that Perez had the biggest gap among all starting pitchers last year from his actual production to his expected stats. That shows on several occasions, he was getting unlucky.
Perhaps a change of scenery, combined with a few more bounces going his way, can result in a quality, bounce-back season for the left-hander.
Well, not so fast.
Perez has spent all eight seasons of his career in the American League, compiling 128 of his 157 career starts in a Texas Rangers uniform. That's before he spent all of last season with the Minnesota Twins where he posted a 5.12 ERA in 32 appearances.
Across close to 1,000 innings pitched in the AL, he's faced the Yankees enough times to factor those splits into projections of how this southpaw will perform against New York in his new digs.
While he may be on pace to have a bounce-back year, Perez is also poised to struggle mightily against the Bronx Bombers. The proof is in his track record.
In five career starts against New York, Perez has posted a 9.97 ERA while Yankees hitters are batting .398 against him with a 1.137 OPS. Those are Perez's worst splits against any other American League team in his career.
When the Bombers have put the ball in play against Perez (also known as BAbip) the Yankees are hitting .416. Again, that's the highest average any American League team has ever posted against Perez.
The immediate counter argument is this is simply too small of a sample size. After all, Perez has only toed the rubber against the Bombers for 21 2/3 total innings.
When you stack his numbers facing the Yankees up against the other teams he's matched up with since his big-league debut in 2012, however, it's evident that New York's lineup is designed to take care of business when he's on the mound.
Perez has surrendered seven home runs to Yankees hitters in this aforementioned span. He's given up the same amount of homers to the Los Angeles Angels (in 88 innings) and two fewer big flies to the Houston Astros (across 80 frames). In other words, in about a quarter of the time spent pitching to those two AL West foes, Perez has allowed the same amount of home runs, or more, to New York.
Here's Perez's lone start at Yankee Stadium in his career – in which he was tagged for seven runs on 11 hits. Take a look at how hard the Yankees were hitting the ball to all fields throughout Perez's five-plus innings of work:
This is for a pitcher that was in the top four percent of baseball in exit velocity a year ago, per Statcast. Against New York, he's not missing many bats.
Now, let's pause right here.
Does a left-handed pitcher struggling against the Yankees – who would be in a Red Sox uniform had the 2020 MLB season begun on time – remind you of anyone?
What about David Price?
It's common knowledge among Yankees fans that the Bombers have excelled against Price in his career, especially in the last two seasons. Across 24 2/3 innings pitched since 2018 – in six starts – Price has a 10.22 ERA against New York. That includes 28 earned runs on 12 homers and 36 total hits.
Price's fastball lives in the low-90s and the southpaw has a practically identical pitch arsenal to Perez, including a sinker-changeup combo as his second and third pitches. Perez throws at a similar speed and relies heavily on his sinker, with a groundball rate above the league average in his career (51.9 percent).
Even for hurlers that typically keep the ball on the ground, the Yankees' high-powered lineup hasn't had trouble lifting their pitches and finding either outfield grass or the bleachers.
Finally, like most pitchers in the Major Leagues, Perez is at his best against left-handed hitters. Therefore, against a club with a surplus of right-handed sluggers, it makes sense that he's struggled in the past.
When the Yankees are healthy, close to their entire lineup is comprised of right-handed hitters. It's daunting for any lefty to get through a lineup featuring Aaron Judge, Gary Sánchez, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres – who have each hit more than 30 homers in their career.
READ: What we could have learned about the Yankees in April
The one kryptonite for New York's right-handed bats is the strikeout. Perez was in the league's 16th percentile in strikeouts last season with a whiff percentage only a few slots higher. If he's not going to strike these hitters out, how does a pitcher like Perez make it through this order?
Righties are hitting nearly 50 percentage points higher than lefties that step up to the plate against Perez. Those right-handed bats have hit north of six times the amount of homers than lefties in his career (90 versus 14).
It remains to be seen whether or not New York will even have an opportunity to take on Perez this year. As the novel coronavirus pandemic continues to spread, there are still plenty of doubts regarding whether or not this year's season will eventually begin.
Should Perez suit up for the Red Sox this season, he may very well have a solid campaign. Against the Yankees, however, odds are it'll be a different story.
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