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Celtics Musings: Al Horford's Shot Selection, Rotation Tweaks, Talent vs. Record
Sunday's 116-87 win against the Wizards was one of the Celtics' best performances this season. At 24-24, the victory got them back to .500, and they've moved up to eighth in the Eastern Conference.
While there's much attention placed on what Boston will do between now and the Feb. 10 trade deadline -- more on that later -- there are internal tweaks already being made and changes that will further benefit them.
Below, Inside The Celtics explored those topics and weighed the team's talent against their record, starting with a simple adjustment to help address their greatest need.
Tweaking Al Horford's Shot Selection
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It's well-known Al Horford's having a horrendous season shooting-wise; he's only converting 28.4 percent of his three-point attempts. However, he's 11/23 (47.8 percent) on his long-range looks from the right corner, per NBA.com.
That's a small sample size, but it suggests he should be taking more shots from there and fewer from above the break, where he's 30/122 (24.6%). Horford's only taken four field goals from there in the last four games, and he's 2/4.
Personally, tweaking his three-point attempts in that direction seems like a move worth making. Doing so could benefit Horford and a team that needs a boost from beyond the arc, especially when the starting five are on the floor together.
Ime Udoka Tinkers with Celtics' Rotation
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Speaking of reconfiguring, in Sunday's 116-87 win against the Wizards, Ime Udoka decided to play Robert Williams or Horford at center throughout the game. As a result, Enes Freedom didn't check in until there was 3:27 left in an outcome already determined.
Freedom adds value with his screen setting, and the same goes for his presence on the glass, especially when it comes to creating second-chance opportunities, which he usually turns into putback layups. However, his lack of mobility makes him a defensive liability and a net negative on that end of the floor.
It's not a coincidence that in the win vs. Washington, a game Freedom didn't play in until garbage time, the Celtics had one of their best defensive performances of the season, holding the Wizards to an abysmal 35.5 percent shooting from the field, including 8/34 (23.5 percent) from beyond the arc.
Having Williams or Horford play the pivot throughout a game is ideal, but that's tough to accomplish with both in the starting lineup. One way to solve that is by taking a similar approach to how Boston keeps Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown on the floor, which is by short-shifting one of them, which in this case, would be Horford.
However, adopting that approach, which Boston did yesterday, subbing Horford and Brown out at the 6:03 mark in the first quarter, and then bringing them back in with 3:25 left to play in the period, resulted in the 14-year veteran logging 35 minutes to ensure a blowout didn't turn into the latest frustrating loss.
To combat that, the Celtics could find opportunities in the course of games where they can play Grant Williams at center. Despite his six-foot-six stature, Williams has the strength and basketball IQ to make this a feasible option most of the time. And when it's not, odds are, that means it's easier for Boston to get away with playing Freedom, something that would still only occur in small doses.
Of course, there are other options. The Celtics could deviate from their preferred starting lineup. That group's only played together in 13 of the team's 48 games this season, but in 160 minutes, they've produced a 110.4 offensive rating while holding opponents to 92.6 points per 100 possessions, giving them a 17.8 net rating, per NBA.com.
If anything, Boston probably wants to see what happens to those figures as its starting unit shares more time on the court.
That leaves acquiring a backup big that's an upgrade from Freedom. Center is the running back of the NBA, so this shouldn't be too difficult to accomplish. Doing so would make it easier for Boston to keep its starting lineup intact.
Talent vs. Record
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The last item on the agenda is figuring out the gap between Boston's talent level and record.
Injuries and a lack of execution in crunch time are the primary reasons the Celtics are 24-24 and seem destined for a spot in the play-in tournament. Boston's currently in eighth in the Eastern Conference, but four games behind the Sixers. Even with one matchup left in that series, the gap's hard to overcome.
According to NBA.com, at 9-17, the Celtics have the second-most crunch-time losses this season, a topic that Inside The Celtics recently went in-depth on.
A few more wins in games that were within five points or less in the final five minutes would at least have the Celtics jockeying with the Cavaliers, Sixers, and Hornets to avoid the play-in tournament.
Depending on how many of the contests lost in the clutch played out in their favor, they could even be in a position to earn home-court advantage to start the playoffs, especially if the injury-depleted Bulls stumble in the standings.
The Celtics can view this optimistically, and the same goes for the results when their starting unit is on the court together. If that's how they look at this season, along with the role injuries played in them being .500 last season, then having to go through the play-in tournament to lose in five games to the Nets in the first round of the playoffs, they can buy into the possibility they're somewhere on the second tier of contenders.
However, to raise banner 18 to the rafters, Boston has to get to the top rung. It's ok the Celtics aren't there at the moment. Leading them is an All-Star wing tandem that's 23-years-old in Tatum's case and 25 in Brown's. And they have a first-year head coach and president of basketball operations. Though it's fair to ask how long the latter will remain in his current position.
Still, the Celtics are in a better position than a litany of frustrating losses might make it seem. That enables them to get under the luxury tax and make a small move or two by the Feb. 10 trade deadline; for instance, they could upgrade the backup center position and or add a big wing that gives them a boost from beyond the arc.
Then, in the summer, with a larger sample size to determine how far away this team is from contending, the Celtics could make a more substantial move in hopes of vaulting up the ranks.
Further Reading
What Stood Out in Celtics' Win vs. Wizards: Boston Fueled by Stingy Defense, Jayson Tatum's 50-Piece
Celtics Reportedly Exploring Trading Al Horford
Report Links Celtics to Jerami Grant
Should Jaylen Brown be the Celtics' Closer?
