2024 College Breakout Watch: Virginia Tech's Rodney Rice
Rodney Rice is one of the most underrated college prospects entering the upcoming season. His stats only tell half the story, but the upside is real.
2022-23 Stats: 8 GP | 20.1 MPG | 7.4 PPG I 3.3 RPG I 0.9 APG | 0.3 BPG I
Shooting Stats: 32% FG I 33% 3PT (39 Attempts) I 83% FT (12 Attempts)
The first time I scouted Rice, he was a middle schooler excelling in the Premier Youth Basketball League (PYBL), an incredibly competitive and beautifully managed middle school basketball league here in the DMV. Since being founded in 2014, the PYBL has featured future NBA players, McDonald’s All Americans and collegiate stars like Jarace Walker, Cam Whitmore, Isaiah Todd, Trevor Keels, Justin Lewis, Aminu Mohammed, Hunter Dickinson, Jeremy Roach, Jahmir Young, Erik Reynolds and more.
From my first viewing and on, when thinking about Rice’s game, the words smooth, advanced and shooter are imprinted in my brain. I almost instantly noted him as one of my must track prospects moving forward. I would later find out that basketball is in his blood, which made perfect sense given his skillset and approach.
His father is a Richmond Basketball Hall of Famer and was the Washington Post Player of the Year in 1983, while his grandfather was an All Metropolitan (All-Met) selection in 1960 (All-Met teams are selected by the Washington Post as the best players in their respective sports that year).
Eventually, Rice would attend Bullis (Potomac, MD) before transferring to powerhouse DeMatha (Hyattsville, MD) ahead of his junior season. While developing at DeMatha and on the grassroots circuit with Team Durant, he became a four-star recruit, earning notable power five offers alongside a significant offer from Overtime Elite.
His commitment to join Mike Young, and the Virginia Tech Hokies (big assist from then VT associate head coach and longtime DeMatha head coach, Mike Jones) made Rice the highest ranked recruit ever under Coach Young. Per 247 Sports' Composite Rankings, Rice is also Virginia Tech’s third highest commit ever (51), behind Nickeil Alexander Walker (40) and Dorian Finney Smith (24).
The talented guard’s freshman season obviously didn’t go as planned. Rice appeared in only eight games due to ankle preseason ankle surgery that August, then broke a finger in his shooting hand at the end of practice in January shortly after his season debut against Syracuse. He returned to close the season with several notable outings and is on breakout watch in 2024.
NBA Appeal
3-Point Shooting
Rice’s NBA appeal must start with his 3-point shooting, perhaps the most coveted NBA skill when evaluating prospects, especially guards. Through 35 games (including college) tracked by Cerebro Sports, Rice is shooting 36.3% from deep on 5.4 attempts per game (190 total attempts).
The marriage of the eye test and numbers align. Rice possesses an incredibly smooth, repeatable, and effortless shooting stroke and maintains his mechanics whether he’s shooting off the catch or bounce, contested or not. From standstills, pin downs, handoffs, flares, etc., there aren’t actions or shooting scenarios that Rice can’t be effective shooting out of.
In the limited eight sample at Virginia Tech, we saw glimpses of his marksmanship and 3-point shooting versatility. Rice connected on multiple threes in three of those eight games, including draining 5-of-7 against North Carolina State in the second round of the ACC Tournament. Expect him to be one of the ACC’s leaders in games with multiple made threes alongside teammates Hunter Cattoor and Sean Pedulla.
Shot-Making Upside
You don’t just average nearly 20 points per game at a basketball school like DeMatha without being a talented shot maker. Rice is a skilled multiple level scorer and tough shot maker with reliable pull-up game.
He scored in double figures in three games with a career-high 17 points in 19 minutes that ACC Tournament matchup versus North Carolina State. Although he likely won’t be the team’s leading scorer, he’ll no doubt notch several individual games as VT's leading scorer.
Projectable Frame
Listed at 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds, Rice is equipped with a projectable NBA frame. There is already noticeable mature muscle, cut and definition to his frame, particularly his upper body. As he continues to add strength, he’ll be able leverage his strength on both sides of the ball to make the game a bit easier for him.
Poise
Rice simply doesn't get rattled often. It doesn’t matter if he’s in a shooting slump or an overall bad game. He brings a sense of calm and quite confidence to the floor. There was a moment of his poise late against Notre Dame. Rice hit a three with 1:52 left in the second half for his only points of the game, cutting the Notre Dame lead to one. VT would go on to win the game, 67-64. He’ll have plenty more opportunities to showcase his poise in late game situations.
What to Monitor
3-Point Shooting
Despite the reputation and eye test, Rice still must show evaluators that he’s better than the 33% 3-point shooter last season. There shouldn’t be any concern at all about his most bankable skill not translating after such a small sample size plus the injuries.
At the end of the day, I’m trusting my eyes, the larger sample from Cerebro and shooting being in his blood. Rice’s father, Rodney Sr., shot 42% from beyond the arc across his collegiate career at Boston College and Richmond (302 attempts) with a career best 47% mark on 5.5 attempts per game as a senior.
Lead or Ancillary Guard?
I don’t expect that question to be answered this season, but it’s an important one to monitor as teams evaluate and envision Rice’s NBA role. Can he be a lead/primary full time ball handler and decision maker or is he best as an ancillary/support guard next to a lead?
To assess this, keep an eye out for traits like: non-screen paint touches, pick and roll decision making, controlling the pace of the game, organizing the offense and balancing scoring and playmaking for others.
Defensive Playmaking
Rice isn’t blessed with tremendous size, length, or quick twitch athleticism, so it’s difficult to envision or expect him to become a shut down type of defender and that’s more than fine considering his projected offensive impact.
What NBA evaluators want to see is continued engagement on and off the ball while being a playmaker defensively with his blend of strength, IQ and effort. This includes things like pressuring the ball, active hands, deflections, strips, playing passing lanes and making the proper rotations. In his 20.1 minutes per game, Rice averaged 1.1 stocks (0.8 steals and 0.3 blocks), a number that ideally should go up with his expected increased role.
Finishing At and Around the Rim
As previously mentioned, Rice is a respectable athlete but not this explosive, above the rim finisher. This typically lends itself to some struggles finishing at/around the rim in traffic amongst the size, length, and athleticism of wings and bigs from guards of his ilk.
In continuing to evolve as a projectable three-level type scorer, Rice will need to rely on his mix of touch, craft, strength, and body control to be an effective finisher at/around the rim.
Final Thoughts
A healthy Rodney Rice should breakout as a collegiate player and NBA prospect. Don’t be surprised to see him on top-60 boards by the end of the season. His high level 3-point shooting, shot making upside and projectable frame will generate the NBA buzz that likely would have occurred last season if it wasn’t for the injuries.
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