NBA Draft

A Scout’s Take: Projected Second Round and Undrafted Free Agent Value Targets — Part One

NBA Draft week is here! As your favorite team prepares for Thursday's draft, which players should they target in the second round or as a undrafted free agent?
Jam Hines|
A Scout’s Take: Projected Second Round and Undrafted Free Agent Value Targets — Part One
A Scout’s Take: Projected Second Round and Undrafted Free Agent Value Targets — Part One

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Gonzaga BulldogsSanta Clara BroncosHouston CougarsUSC TrojansCincinnati BearcatsTCU Horned Frogs

In what should be a national holiday in my humble opinion, Thursday’s NBA Draft is right around the corner!

As teams set their big boards and prepare themselves for a multitude of draft day scenarios, here is part one of my favorite projected second round and undrafted value targets (players selected are not considered consensus first rounders): 

Brandin Podziemski I Ancillary Guard I Santa Clara I 6-foot-5 I 6-foot-5 ½ wingspan

2022-2023 Stats: 19.9 points I 8.8 rebounds I 3.7 assists I 1.8 steals I 0.5 blocks

43% 3-point shooter on 5.8 attempts I 77% free throw shooter on 4.5 attempts

Projection: Late-first to mid-second

Podz is the closest player on my list to being a consensus first rounder, but he’s still generally projected to be selected in the late first to mid second range. To me, he’a a lock first rounder that’s ready to contribute to an NBA rotation with his 3-point shooting, pick and roll handling and defensive playmaking.

His rise from 4.3 minutes per game at Illinois to WCC Player of the Year at Santa Clara to showing out at the combine, has been stellar. The stat sheet stuffing guard provides legit value as an off ball shooter and closeout attacker while being a more than capable dual pick-and-roll that features advanced self creation and high level reads/passes.

I’m a believer in Podziemski's role versatility and adaptability. I would be shocked if his melding of shooting, shotmaking, touch, feel, craft and playmaking doesn't translate to at least a high level rotation player despite any remaining worries around his athleticism.

Marcus Sasser I Ancillary Guard I Houston I 6-foot-3 I 6-foot-7 wingspan

2022-2023 Stats: 16.6 points I 3.1 assists I 2.8 steals I1.6 steals I 0.2 blocks

38% 3-point shooter on 6.9 attempts I 84% free throw shooter on 4.2 attempts

Projection: 2nd Round

There were questions if Sasser would be a member of the Cougars this past season. After only playing 11 games due to a toe injury, Sasser was able to recover in time for the 2022 NBA Combine and delivered as one of the event’s top performers, seemingly a lock to be drafted.

His decision to return for his senior year didn't disappoint though. He helped lead Houston to a number one seed while winning the AAC Player of the Year Award and being named a consensus first team All-American.

Sasser’s value is rooted in his tenacious, event generating defense and ability to thrive as a scorer both on and off the ball. Sasser is arguably the best point of attack defender in the draft and gets it down with a combination of length, strength, fluid lateral quickness, quick hands and competitiveness.

The numbers support how dynamic and productive Sasser is both as a lead and ancillary guard. Via Synergy, Sasser ranks in the 89th percentile as the pick-and-roll handler, 97th percentile on spot ups, 95th percentile on catch-and-shoots including shooting 45% from three on 122 attempts and 50% on 65 unguarded catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts.

With a clear fit in a 3-and-D Plus role and NBA bloodlines (something I really value), Sasser has the skills and tools to be a long time high level rotation player with starter upside.

Julian Strawther I Wing I Gonzaga I 6-foot-7 I 6-foot-9 ¼ wingspan

2022-2023 Stats: 15.2 points I 6.2 rebounds I 1.3 assists I 0.8 steals I 0.4 blocks

40% 3-point shooter on 5.3 attempts I 77% free throw shooter on 3.6 attempts

Projection: Second Round

Strawther has been a clear cut first rounder for me all season. Positional size, freakish touch and a lethal blend of 3-point shooting and tough shotmaking ability, He’s one of the best off-ball players in the class thanks to his excellent screen navigation, cutting and floor spacing.

I understand the concerns around his ancillary skills and defense, but ultimately I’m trusting his shooting/shotmaking to provide sustainable value while at worst being a neutral defender with his size and effort.

Strawther can provide punch to an NBA rotation right away. He’s another potential long term high end rotation player with starter upside. Give me a player with this type of confidence, shotmaking and shooting reputation (career 38% 3-point shooter, 372 attempts).

Mike Miles Jr. I Ancillary Guard I TCU I 6-foot-1 I 6-foot-1 ½ wingspan

2022-2023 Stats: 17.9 points I 2.7 rebounds I 2.7 assists I 1.2 steals I 0.3 blocks

36% 3-point shooter on 3.9 attempts I 74% free throw shooter on 6.3 attempts

Projection: Late Second/Undrafted

Miles is someone that I firmly have had in my top 60 over the past two draft cycles. He’s a dynamic, compact guard that can provide instant juice off the bench as a shot creator and pick-and-roll playmaker with vertical pop at the rim despite his less than ideal size and length.

I love that Miles was productive from day one at TCU, improved each season, had notable NCAA tournament performances and stabilized his 3-point shooting. His growth as a facilitator has raised his floor a bit and might ultimately determine his ceiling.

Regardless, his appeal is as a bucket getting guard with playmaking equity. Don’t be surprised to see him have some huge nights in the G League as he likely spends time there to develop back and forth between the NBA parent club.

Landers Nolley Jr. I Wing I Cincinnati I 6-foot-7 I 6-foot-11 wingspan

22-’23 Stats: 16.8 points I 5.8 rebounds I 2.6 assists I 1 steal I 0.5 blocks

41% 3-point shooter on 6.4 attempts I 75% free throw shooter on 3.1 attempts

Projection: Undrafted

The bet on Nolley is based on his positional size, 3-point shooting and tough shot making ability, three qualities that he leveraged to three different collegiate teams in scoring and earning conference awards at each stop (Virginia Tech, Memphis, Cincinnati).

As a career 36% 3-point shooter with shooting versatility and 42.7 mark on catch-and-shoot-threes this past season (124 attempts), there is little doubt in my mind that Nolley can successfully thrive in a floor spacing wing role.

Lacking the ideal twitchiness and explosion, the hope is that Nolley will be able to either utilize his size and length to develop into a more consistent defender. If he can reach it, there is clearly more staying power in a rotation as a true 3-and-D player. Regardless, Nolley will be one of the top undrafted free agent wing shooters available.

Drew Peterson I Big Wing I USC I 6-foot-8 I 6-foot 10 wingspan

13.9 points I 6.2 rebounds I 4.3 assists I 1.1 steals I 0.8 blocks

35% 3-point shooter on 4.1 attempts I 75% free throw shooter on 3.3 attempts

Projection: Undrafted

Getting a big wing connector/playmaker like Peterson as an undrafted free agent to develop in the G League could be fruitful. One look at his game reveals that he’s in the modern mold of dribble, pass, shoot wings with positional size that are coveted.

If Peterson had a little more burst, vertical pop and/or shot better than his 35% clip on threes, it would be easier for teams to buy him as a surefire top 60 player. Nonetheless, I believe he’s still a projectable shooter (38% 3-point shooter at USC, 344 attempts) with a desirable blend of size, feel and ball skills that’s worth investing a two-way contract on. 

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Jam Hines
JAM HINES

Jam is a scout with nearly a decade of evaluation experience through his time with former NBA scouting and consulting services, EV Hoops and BPA Hoops. From the high school to NBA level, he brings a wealth of knowledge on prospects.

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