Brice Sensabaugh: Hidden Gem?
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Ranked just 49th in the 2022 high school class (RSCI), Ohio State freshman Brice Sensabaugh wasn’t on most draft boards heading into the season. However, after being arguably the most productive freshman in the country thus far, the 6-foot-6, 235 pound, wing is forcing himself into first-round draft conversations.
Despite playing just 21.2 minutes per game, Sensabaugh is averaging 15.3 points per game on a wildly efficient 64% true shooting. This includes 48.9% shooting from deep in 11.8 tries per 100 possessions, albeit over a small sample of 12 games. This unforeseen start to the season has led to many questioning the sustainability of his dominance. Is he just on a hot streak or is he next star wing creator, hidden in plain sight?
How good of a 3-point shooter is he really?
Sensabaugh’s numbers from beyond the arc are those of an all-time great shooter, but given the 12-game sample this data comes from, more is needed to cement this status.
In his senior season at Lake Highland Prep, he shot 38% from deep in 7.8 attempts per contest across 25 games via MaxPreps. According to Cerebro Sports, in 13 EYBL games last summer, he shot 31.1% from three taking 5.7 shots per game. These high school numbers definitely support his claim as a really good shooter, but they are strides behind those of recent top-tier shooting prospects like Gradey Dick and AJ Griffin. Still, off-season improvement is a real possibility; the way in which his shooting stats age will be most important.
What can be observed, though, is the versatility he’s displayed as a shooter. Just over 80% of Sensabaugh’s 3-point attempts have come off the catch this season. Almost all of these looks have come from a standstill. His quick, compact, release combined with defenses not yet giving him proper respect as a shooter have allowed him to hoist up, and drill, numerous shots from behind the arc.
But when defenses guard him tighter to prevent conceding the open looks he’s been destroying teams with, he needs to find counter methods to maintain his 3-point volume. There are usually two ways for a player to proactively create those attempts: run into shots off of off-ball screens or shoot them off the dribble. Sensabaugh really hasn’t done much of either to this point. He did flash a moving triple against Rutgers, but that’s been it.
Of his nine “dribble jumpers” this season per Synergy Sports, almost all of them have been after “reset dribbles” to reorient positioning rather than pull-ups with a man guarding him.
There could be many reasons for the lack of diversity in Sensabaugh’s diet from deep. It may just be another symptom of examining a small sample size, or there may be a hurdle in his mechanics, such as his infatuation with a base-aligning hop before releasing. He’s done this prior to nearly every three he’s taken this season, notice it in the clip below.
In the few attempts in which he hasn’t been able to hop into his power-generating base and has had to shoot with more messy footwork, shots have been short.
He’s also displayed reluctance to shoot without hopping into it. In the clip below he passes up an open backpedaling three to get back to his left hand and hop into his shot.
The split-second Sensabaugh needs to hop into his shot can be all it takes for a defender to close out and take away the opportunity. However, if he continues to rely on this shot preparation, it may simply not matter if he’s just able to hop into movement and off-the-dribble threes. It will require more attention to detail and precise footwork, but one can become an impactful, high-volume, versatile, shooter this way à la Trey Murphy III.
Ultimately, to be a high-impact shooter in the NBA rather than just a good stationary shooter, Sensabaugh is going to need to be capable of pulling from deep off of movement or off-the-dribble. Surveilling his growth in these categories over the course of Ohio State’s season will be key to his evaluation.
What level of a creator can he be?
Shooters are integral to any successful NBA offense, but to truly be valued in the highest regard, offensive players must bring value as a creator, for themselves and others. Sensabaugh has thrived as a self-creator thus far, particularly in the mid-range. Per Barttorvik, 83.3% of his mid-range makes have been unassisted, and per Synergy Sports he’s made 60% of his mid-range “dribble jumpers”. These stats may include some variance given the small sample, but the tape sure does look good.
For starters, his handle and footwork do a lot to create the first bit of separation from his defender. He mixes in shrewd usage of jabs and stutters with a tight, creative, handle to get outside of defenders and open up pathways to the paint, where he rises up over defenders over either shoulder with his gorgeous mid-range jumper. He can legitimately make the most difficult of these chances; he’ll be able to get a solid mid-range look anytime he wishes in the NBA.
Sensabaugh has made one more shot from the mid-range than at the basket this season. While this displays his shot-making brilliance inside the arc, sans Kevin Durant, creators can’t feasibly be efficient with a shot diet primarily consisting of middies, they need to mix in easy buckets at the rim, which Sensabaugh hasn’t done enough of yet.
He excels at creating driving angles, but Sensabaugh doesn’t have the speed nor flexibility to take advantage of these lanes. He struggles to turn the corner on drives, forcing him to take curved trails to the rim rather than attack in straight lines, This allows defenders to recover and cut him off more often than not - leading to too many drives ending with jumpers or tough floaters rather than layups.
But there still are pathways for Sensabaugh to be able to create easy rim attempts for himself. For one, he could utilize his strong 235-pound frame earlier on drives by carving out paths to the rim by initiating contact early instead of attempting to win with subpar footspeed. This is something Luka Doncic does really well.
Or, he could just do more of his work after catching the ball. He’s pretty quick to get downhill when he doesn’t have to change direction, which is often seen in his closeout attacks.
This principle can be replicated with him coming off of screens with a direct line to the basket.
However, focusing on getting Sensabaugh downhill isn’t worthwhile if he can’t finish on his drives. At many points this year, he’s displayed poor touch on layups and has struggled to elevate in traffic. If he can’t overcome these deficiencies, his outlook as a self-creator becomes far more grim.
On the flip side, his passing flashes have been very good. He isn’t consistently facilitating for teammates yet, but he can promptly find open teammates when attacking and has even made some higher-level passes by reading help defenders.
Outlook
His range of offensive outcomes is what makes Sensabaugh such an intriguing prospect. He could plausibly be a stationary shooter who can drive and kick to connect the offense, a three-level creator, or anywhere in between. He would really need to improve over the course of the season for me to project him closer to the latter outcome, but given his unexpected start, I wouldn’t rule it out. Nonetheless, his progress during the rest of the season will surely be fun to monitor.
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