2023 NBA Draft: Evaluating The Scoring Upside of Prospects Just Outside Lottery

In basketball, the objective is to score more points than the other team. So naturally, the players best at getting buckets will be prized the most. Luckily, for teams in need of some shot creators, there’s plenty of scoring talent in pre-NBA leagues.

In recent years, we have seen guys drafted in the teens, such as Phoenix’s star wing Devin Booker and Cleveland’s dynamic guard Donovan Mitchell, develop into some of the world’s best scorers.

There are many talented scoring prospects in this year’s draft, but outside of the top crop of Victor Wembenyama, Scoot Henderson, and Brandon Miller, it takes some more digging to hypothesize which players will be able to translate their skills into legitimate bucket-getting mastery at the next level. Let’s take a look at some potential big-time scorers, projected to fall out of the top 10 come draft night:

Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State

Sensabaugh was one of the most surprising stories of this year’s draft class. He began the season absent on nearly everyone’s board, but quickly established himself as one of the country’s premier scorers, springing up into lottery range.

The 6-foot-6 wing averaged 16.3 points per game in his freshman season while shooting north of 40% from beyond the arc. He was money from the mid-range, making a living off tough fadeaways and pull-up twos.

However, the precise prowess of Sensabaugh’s mid-range shooting is yet to be seen. Is it good enough to be the foundation of a high-volume scorer, or is it more of a tool for situational creation? Also, just how much strength-based creation can he generate from his bulky 235 pound frame? The answers to these questions will likely determine just how good of a scorer Sensabaugh can be at the next level.

G.G. Jackson, South Carolina

Formerly the top player in the 2023 high school recruiting class, last summer Jackson re-classified up a year. In the process, he decommitted from UNC to enroll at South Carolina, a team that lacked a structure and high-level talent.

Even in this suboptimal context, Jackson’s talent shines in spurts. The 6-foot-9 forward had jarring flashes of shot-creation and shot-making at his size. His handle and movement patterns are undoubtedly rare traits.

As a result, he averaged 15.4 points but on inefficient shooting splits. He’ll need to polish up his skills and approach, and figure out where specifically he’ll specialize as a scorer. Jackson, as the youngest player in the draft, will have time to figure this out and ascend to being a big-time NBA scorer.

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