NBA Draft: How To Gauge Fair Expectations For Victor Wembanyama

The term "fair expectations" oozes of subjectivity as those can and will differ greatly from one person to the next.

In the case of Victor Wembanyama, however he performs during his rookie season, opinions are certain to be divided. Why? Because the NBA is currently the best it has ever been, meaning competition is absolutely fierce.

For Wembanyama, who is still going to be thin and lanky during his first year, there will assuredly be times when he gets overpowered by smaller opponents and that will lead to major online reactions due to the unmatched hype he's received this season.

So, what does "fair expectations" mean for Wembanyama?

It's pointless to set up statistical markers, as raw stats are often a result of situation, role, coaching, quality of teammates, and so on. Wembanyama will, for example, not get as many shots or opportunities if he ends up in New Orleans alongside Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and CJ McCollum as he would, say, the Indiana Pacers.

Even advanced metrics will be greatly affected by those elements, as players with less offensive burden tend to see a bump in efficiency by simply being able to afford the luxury of being more selective and opportunistic with their shots.

As such, I will personally look at some elements where volume is less inclined to affect Wembanyama. That starts with defense.

Thin physique aside, Wembanyama should be an elite shot-changer defensively right off the bat. Early in his rookie season, you can bet your bottom dollar some players will go at him, and see if they can dunk on him. Some might even succeed. But overall, Wembanyama should deter the vast majority of non-elite jumpers, and be able to force a large percentage of drivers to pass out of that drive, to either re-set the offense or to find shooters.

Wembanyama's ability to cover an enormous area in very little time, due to his long legs and 8-foot wingspan, isn't going to be affected by the players around him in the court. That is a standalone skill, which should be his initial ticket to extended playing time. Whatever team he lands on, it'll be worth tracking their allowance of interior scoring with Wembanyama on the court.

Secondly, I'll be watching Wembanyama's open shots success rate. That means open 3-point shots, open dunks, open everything. It's unlikely he'll be asked to score 25 points immediately, as most teams would want to ease him into an 82-game schedule, and not have him burn him out by Christmas. Using Wembanyama as a play finisher, where he's asked to catch alley-oops, asked to shoot from range, and generally asked to dribble less than he is right now will be a major tracking point to see how he'll adjust to playing in a tighter hierarchy.

(It should be noted that Wembanyama will get plenty of chances to operate on-ball, as that's a major part of his appeal. However, as players around him will be significant upgrades from his current teammates, those opportunities will diminish from his current rate.)

Thirdly, I'll be tracking passing stats. Not in the sense of assists or potential assists, but simply... passes per game over the course of the season. While Wembanyama will likely be mostly used as a play finisher, and not a passing hub, he's undoubtedly got a knack for finding cutters, and making solid reads on the fly.

It'll be enormously interesting to see if a stat as simple as passes per game will increase month-by-month, as that would reveal at least a bit of how comfortable he feels on the floor, and with the ball in his hands.

Finally, I'll be looking at overall production broken down into per-minute and tracking that on a weekly basis. The best players understand how to redirect their energy, if they aren't needed as much in one area. Wembanyama will be tasked with this plenty of times over the course of his first few years, and tracking his shot-blocking, rebounding, passes, and open shot conversion rates will tell us a great deal about where he spends his focus.

Now, in terms of success, it all depends on role, efficiency, and overall imprint on a game. Tracking stats is one thing, but seeing what he actually does on the court in terms of effort and how he integrates himself, will determine whether he's successful or not.

Anthony Davis is a best blueprint. While Damian Lillard ran away with the Rookie Of the Year award, Davis had a phenomenal rookie season, despite modest averages of 13.5 points and 8.2 rebounds. His actual impact was far greater than his statistical accomplishments, and it's through that lens we need to evaluate Wembanyama next season.

Or, maybe, the Frenchman will drop 22/9 with 2.5 blocks right off the bat, while hitting 150 3-pointers, and let all of us know exactly where he's at. Can't rule it out.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

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