Rookie of the Year Race: Cooper Flagg or the Field?

With NBA Summer League now in the rearview mirror, members of the 2025-26 NBA rookie class now have their sights set on their official debuts. As they look to begin their NBA careers on high notes, many first-year players will enter the year gunning for Rookie of the Year honors. Every single winner this decade has gone on to become an all-star by their third NBA season, so this title is well worth chasing.

At the moment, with the regular season sitting less than three months away, first overall pick Cooper Flagg is a big favorite to win the award. He currently boasts -185 odds to capture the trophy on major sportsbooks, while second overall pick Dylan Harper has the second shortest odds at +900.

With the odds favoring Flagg to win Rookie of the Year over the field of every other rookie, it’s only right to question whether this strong of a stance makes sense.

For starters, Flagg enters his NBA career on the heels of one of the best college freshman seasons in NCAA history. The 6-foot-8 forward captured the Wooden Award as the nation’s best player, despite not turning 18 years old until mid-season. He filled out the stat sheet in its entirety, averaging 19.2 points, nearly eight rebounds, just over four assists and almost three stocks (steals & blocks) per game for the Duke Blue Devils.

A two-way force, Flagg begins his Dallas Mavericks career as clearly the best player in his rookie class, which supports his positioning as the overwhelming Rookie of the Year favorite.

Further, Flagg not only holds a talent advantage over his top competitors but will likely also have a larger opportunity to make an impact. The 19-year-old will be called upon to be the Mavericks’ second-best player next to Anthony Davis, as they vie for playoff positioning and await star point guard Kyrie Irving’s return from injury. The Maine native will have the chance to bring value both as a scorer and even more so as part of a gifted defensive unit.

On the other hand, top Rookie of the Year contenders like Harper, Ace Bailey and VJ Edgecombe may not have this type of responsibility this season.

On the San Antonio Spurs, 6-foot-5 guard Harper will share ball handling duties with De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell and Stephon Castle while big man Victor Wembanyama remains the focal point of the squad.

For the Utah Jazz, Bailey will look to get his shots up. However, he shares the forward position with the team’s best player in Lauri Markkanen, and shares the floor with countless other young players looking to jumpstart their NBA careers on a rebuilding team.

In Philadelphia, the 76ers may not decide to insert Edegedombe into their starting lineup. Even if he does slot in as a fifth starter, it’s hard to see him scaling up his responsibilities too much while serving as the team’s tertiary backcourt option behind Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain while also sharing the floor with Paul George and Joel Embiid.

Of course, anything is possible over the course of an 82-game NBA regular season. Any of these players could make meaningful strides, and a single injury could transform the entire landscape of the Rookie of the Year favorites list. However, given his current standing as both the league’s most talented rookie and a projected key contributor to a contending team, Flagg’s position as the heavy favorite to win the award is likely justified.