Atlanta Hawks NBA Draft Lottery Odds, Projections + More

Jackson Caudell | May 10, 2024

May 17, 2022; Chicago, IL, USA; An overall shot during the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery at McCormick / David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

The first big day of the Atlanta Hawks offseason will be this Sunday when the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery takes place. It has been a quite month for the Hawks since their season ended in Chicago in the NBA's play-in tournament, but they will officially know their draft position after 3:00 on Sunday.

This is not quite the most anticipated draft lottery in recent memory, but if the Hawks can find a way to move up in the lottery, the pick would become a more valuable trade asset if they wish to trade the pick or they could use it to select a player (Alex Sarr?). Despite this being a down year in terms of elite top talent in the draft, it would be huge if the Hawks could move up.

Coming into Sunday, Atlanta's pre-draft position is 10th. They have a 13.9% chance to land a top-four pick and a 3% chance to land the No. 1 pick. If the lottery were to stay as projected, Atlanta would pick 10th. They can pick as low as 12th or as high as 1st.

For the Atlanta Hawks, they are going to be in the NBA Draft Lottery for the first time since the 2020 NBA Draft, where they picked Onyeka Okongwu at No. 6 overall. The Hawks have never won the NBA Draft Lottery and have only picked in the top four of the draft four times (2018, 2007, 2005, 2001). The only two drafts in which they have moved up more than one projected lottery spot were in 2001 and 1985. The NBA Draft lottery has not always been kind to the Atlanta Hawks, but they are hoping they can move into the top four of this draft, even if this is not considered to be a strong draft.

Here are the teams involved in this year's NBA Draft Lottery, along with their odds of getting the No. 1 overall pick:

• Detroit Pistons: 14%
• Washington Wizards: 14%
• Charlotte Hornets: 13.3%
• Portland Trail Blazers: 13.2%
• San Antonio Spurs: 10.5%
• Toronto Raptors: 9.0%
• Memphis Grizzlies: 7.5%
• Utah Jazz: 6.0%
• Brooklyn Nets (to Houston Rockets): 4.5%
• Atlanta Hawks: 3.0%
• Chicago Bulls: 2.0%
• Houston Rockets: 1.5%
• Sacramento Kings: 0.8%
• Golden State Warriors: 0.7%

Here is how the NBA Draft Lottery works, courtesy of NBA.com:

"The 39th annual NBA Draft Lottery will determine the order of selection for the first 14 picks of the 2024 NBA Draft. Drawings will be conducted to determine the first four picks in the NBA Draft. The remainder of the “lottery teams” will select in positions five through 14 in inverse order of their 2023-24 regular-season records.

The actual lottery procedure will take place in a separate room just before ESPN’s national broadcast. Select media, NBA officials and representatives of the participating teams and the accounting firm Ernst & Young will be in attendance for the drawings.

Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams. The lottery machine is manufactured by the Smart Play Company, a leading manufacturer of state lottery machines throughout the United States. Smart Play also weighs, measures and certifies the ping-pong balls before the drawing.

The drawing process occurs in the following manner: All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second through fourth picks.

If the same team comes up more than once, the result is discarded and another four-ball combination is selected. Also, if the one unassigned combination is drawn, the result is discarded and the balls are drawn again. The length of time the balls are mixed is monitored by a timekeeper who faces away from the machine and signals the machine operator after the appropriate amount of time has elapsed.

A representative from Ernst & Young oversees the entire lottery process and stuffs and seals the envelopes before bringing them to the studio for the broadcast. The announcement of the lottery results will be made by NBA Deputy Commissioner and Chief Operating Officer Mark Tatum. A second representative from each participating team will be seated on stage. Neither the Deputy Commissioner nor the team representatives on stage will be informed of the lottery results before the envelopes are opened. The team whose logo is in the last envelope opened will have the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, which will be held on June 26-27, 2024."