Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers: Game Preview, Injury Report, Projected Starting Lineups for Today's Matchup

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The Atlanta Hawks are back in action today.
Although their game was moved up due to the inclement weather, the Hawks will still be playing the Pacers this afternoon. This is a game where Atlanta is heavily favored due to the Pacers having the worst record in the NBA. They have also beaten the Pacers three consecutive times with two of those wins coming against the iteration of the team that made the NBA Finals. More recently, they blew the Pacers out by 20. However, it can't be ignored that Indiana is coming off their most inspiring win of the season.
Even though they currently have the second-worst record in the Eastern Conference, the Pacers still have enough talent to upset anyone on a given night. The OKC Thunder found that out the hard way as they lost to Indiana narrowly in a 117-114 upset. Atlanta cannot afford to underestimate the Pacers and lose more ground in the Eastern Conference.
By the Numbers

Atlanta's offense has been struggling over the past few games, but they've been better as of late. They are 10th in points, 9th in FG%, 6th in 3P%, 22nd in FT%, 25th in rebounds (26th in OREB, 16th in DREB), 1st in assists, and 17th in turnovers per game. They're 22nd in offensive rating this year, which is partially due to them being a rather inefficient offense as a whole (24th in points per 100 possessions via Cleaning the Glass).
Atlanta's defense has been a rough watch for most of the season, but they've been moderately better as of late. Although Devin Booker and Jalen Green left the game due to injuries, holding the Suns to 103 points is respectable considering how well they've been playing this season. They rank 25th in points allowed, 23rd in FG% allowed, 13th in 3P% allowed, 26th in rebounds allowed, 5th in steals, and 17th in blocks. They're 16th in defensive rating this year.
Indiana has come crashing down to Earth after being one of the most electric offenses in basketball last season. They are 29th in points, 30th in FG%, 27th in 3P%, 24th in FT%, 22nd in rebounds (20th in OREB, 20th in DREB), 20th in assists, and 12th in turnovers per game. They're dead-last (30th) in offensive rating across the entire NBA.
Unfortunately, their defense has not been able to lift them up either. The Pacers rank 23rd in points allowed, 25th in FG% allowed, 2nd in 3P% allowed, 28th in rebounds allowed, 28th in steals, and 13th in blocks. They're 19th in defensive rating this year.
Three Reasons the Hawks Can Win This Game

While the Hawks haven't exactly been a lockdown defense, there are very few matchups that are this enticing for them on paper. The Pacers have the lowest FG% in the NBA as a team while shooting the fifth-highest percentage of their shots from the midrange. The Hawks have actually been decent at defending this area of the court, especially between the FT line and the three-point arc. Opponents shoot 39.8% against Atlanta in the long midrange area, which is the ninth-worst percentage in the NBA. If the Hawks can force Indiana to settle for midrange jumpers, they should be able to slow down their offense.
Atlanta has had a great transition offense all season, but the Pacers are uniquely awful in transition situations. They have the worst transition offense in terms of points per 100 possessions while the Hawks have the second-best offense in the same metric. The transition defense isn't very intimidating for the Pacers either - this should be a game that the Hawks can turn into a possession battle if they can get steals and capitalize on those opportunities. They will feel the absence of Zaccharie Risacher in that area, but it's nonetheless an advantage for Atlanta since the Pacers can't really compete with them in transition situations.
This is a matchup that should be very intriguing to see Onyeka Okongwu in. While he doesn't always handle the seven-footer assignments well, the Pacers' weakest position is their center rotation. Jay Huff is a fun player, but there's a reason why Indiana is 27th in points conceded in the paint. They're somewhat decent at protecting the rim (13th in points given up at the rim per 100 possessions), but this is a matchup Okongwu should be successful in. He's been sensational on both ends of the court in Atlanta's last two games, scoring 18 points on four made threes against Memphis before racking up 25 points against the Suns.
Three Reasons the Hawks Might Lose This Game

Andrew Nembhard isn't quite capable of consistently being the lead guard for a great team, but he's coming off one of the best games of his season. He went toe-to-toe with the MVP favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, scoring 27 points on 10/16 shooting while dishing out 11 assists and also grabbing seven boards. He's benefited a ton from the increased usage he's gotten due to Haliburton's absence, averaging a career-high 17.7 points and 7.3 assists per game. Nembhard is in the 100th percentile for AST% among all guards, assisting on 35.3% of his teammates' shots this season. The offense flows through him, and the Hawks are going to need to limit him if they want to shut down an already-struggling Indiana offense.
The loss of Risacher might be something that the Hawks feel in this game. With Risacher on the court, they are 2.5 points better per 100 possessions in transition situations. That's in the 93rd percentile among all wings, which makes a massive difference for easy points. His replacement, Corey Kispert, has been one of the worst players in transition in the NBA. Therefore, the Hawks may have a reduced advantage against one of the worst transition teams in the NBA.
CJ McCollum has his issues on defense, but he has been extraordinarily additive as a bench player. He currently has the highest plus-minus on the team's offense - the Hawks are a stunning 10.7 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court. He struggles a lot more when he's in a starting role, but McCollum has given the second unit a major lift in a small sample. It's unlikely the Hawks would sign him for a long-term extension, but a continued run of strong performance from CJ might be enough to get him back in Atlanta on a cheap contract as a bench player.
Injury Report
Atlanta Hawks: Zaccharie Risacher, Kristaps Porzingis and N'Faly Dante are all out.
Indiana Pacers: Obi Toppin, Benedict Mathurin and Tyrese Haliburton are all out while Quenton Jackson is questionable.
How to Watch
Here is how you can watch tonight's game:
Tip-off time: 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Location: State Farm Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch: FanDuel Sports Network
Projected Starting Lineups
Hawks:
G - Nickeil Alexander-Walker
G - Dyson Daniels
F - Corey Kispert
F - Jalen Johnson
C - Kristaps Porzingis
Pacers:
G - Andrew Nembhard
G - Johnny Furphy
F - Aaron Nesmith
F - Jarace Walker
C - Jay Huff
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Rohan Raman has been covering the Atlanta Hawks for On SI since June 2024. He has been a contributor to Georgia Tech Athletics for On SI since May 2022 and enjoys providing thoughtful analysis of football, basketball and baseball at the collegiate and professional level.