Heat vs. Nuggets Prediction, Player Props, Picks & Odds: Today, 2/29
It’s finally time. It’s time for the Miami Heat to try and get their revenge against the Denver Nuggets for last season’s NBA Finals. It was an unlikely matchup at the time, and now, it’s not out of the question that we see it again this season. Until then though, let’s break down our best Heat vs. Nuggets prediction and player props for tonight.
An NBA Finals rematch is exciting enough, and we’ll be making it even better by also explaining how new BetMGM Sportsbook members can snag a guaranteed $150 bonus ahead of tip-off.
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HEAT VS. NUGGETS PREDICTION: Under 214.5 points (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
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Heat vs. Nuggets Prediction for Today, 2/29 on TNT
It’s been quite an interesting few games since the All-Star break for the Heat, but the fact remains that they’ve won all three of them, and after a slow start to the year overall, have themselves in a true playoff spot.
That was even with Jimmy Butler and others while also being on the opposite coast due to their one-game suspensions, so an upset over the Nuggets tonight is far from out of the question. However, we’re going to keep our focus on the over/under. With Miami allowing the third-fewest points per game, it’s no surprise that we’re taking the under.
In their three games since the All-Star break, the Heat have allowed just 95, 110 and 96 points. Similarly, Denver gave up just 103 points to Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors in their most recent game. It’s also worth noting that in last year's NBA Finals, four of the five games stayed under the total.
Taking all that into consideration, our Heat vs. Nuggets prediction is under 214.5 points (-110 at BetMGM).
Heat vs. Nuggets Player Props & Free Picks Featuring Bam Adebayo & Jamal Murray
We said that we also had Heat vs. Nuggets player props for you, so let’s dive straight into those. Jimmy Butler will be back for Miami, but our focus is on the other crucial piece of the team - Bam Adebayo.
There’s no doubt that he has a tough task dealing with Nikola Jokic in the paint, but he has proven that he can hold his own against anyone. In the 2023 NBA Finals when those two matched up, Bama averaged 21.8 points per game and 12.4 rebounds per game. That was the second-most in both categories behind only Jokic.
On top of that, he’s had 23+ points in the three games since the All-Star break. He’s a double-double machine, so we’re going with Bam Adebayo over 29.5 points+rebounds (-115 at BetMGM).
With all the mention of Jokic and how dominant he’s been over the past few seasons, you’d likely think that is where we’re headed for the next of our Heat vs. Nuggets player props. However, we’re targeting Jamal Murray instead.
He too had an excellent 2023 NBA Finals, and he’s only improved this season. In last year’s series between these teams, Murray averaged 21.4 points per game and an incredible 10 assists per game. To go along with that, he began the month of February with three straight games with double-digit assists.
After seeing him score 27 points the other night, we shouldn’t need that many assists, but either way, we’re going with Jamal Murray over 27.5 points+assists (-105 at BetMGM Sportsbook).
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Heat vs. Nuggets Odds & Lines via BetMGM Sportsbook for Today, February 29th, 2024
We’ve covered the lines and odds at BetMGM Sportsbook for you below, and we’ll follow that up with a payout breakdown for our best bets:
- Point spread: Miami Heat +4.5 (-110) vs. Denver Nuggets -4.5 (-110)
- Money line: Miami Heat (+155) vs. Denver Nuggets (-190)
- Total (over/under): Over 214.5 (-105) vs. Under 214.5 (-115)
- Bam Adebayo points+rebounds: Over 29.5 (-115) vs. Under 29.5 (-120)
- Jamal Murray points+assists: Over 27.5 (-105) vs. Under 27.5 (-125)
So, a $110 bet on our Heat vs. Nuggets prediction of under 214.5 (-110 at BetMGM) profits $100 as long as the game ends with 214 points or fewer. As for our Heat vs. Nuggets player props, a $115 bet on Bam Adebayo profits $100 as long as his points and rebounds add up to at least 30, while a $115 bet on Jamal Murray profits $100 as long as his points and assists add up to at least 28.
Heat vs. Nuggets Injury Report and Projected Starters for Today's Game on TNT
Miami’s starters have been all over the place with recent suspensions and other injuries, so we’ve shared the projected starters for both teams below:
MIA Heat:
- Tyler Herro
- Jimmy Butler
- Duncan Robinson
- Caleb Martin
- Bam Adebayo
DEN Nuggets:
- Jamal Murray
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
- Michael Porter Jr.
- Aaron Gordon
- Nikola Jokic
Injury-wise, Miami was without Tyler Herro on Thursday night, so that needs to be monitored. Meanwhile, Denver is healthy across the board other than Hunter Tyson.
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