Coach Jason Kidd Says Mavs Changes Are Coming Amid Luka Doncic Workload Concerns
The Dallas Mavericks seem to go as far as Luka Doncic can take them. He proved instrumental throughout the team's Western Conference Finals run, carrying a heavy usage rate as he usually does. However, he had the help of Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie to chip in both alongside him and when he wasn't on the floor.
Doncic had an incredible start to the season, which featured him making history. He surpassed the 30-point threshold in each of his first nine performances, which was something that has been achieved by only Wilt Chamberlain when compared to the rest of NBA history. To do so, Doncic had to shoulder a significant amount of the responsibility for the Mavs' half-court offense — raising durability concerns.
The production Doncic offered the Mavs through nine games shouldn't be understated. He averaged 36.0 points (league-most), 8.4 rebounds, and 8.3 assists while shooting 52.4 percent from the floor. His impact declined to averages of 23.0 points and 7.0 assists while shooting 34.0 percent from the floor, 26.3 percent on 3s, and 43.8 percent on free throws.
"The difference is a little bit of everything," Doncic said after the Mavs' 113-105 loss to the Washington Wizards on Thursday. "I had a really busy summer, I think a little bit came after me. I’m just feeling more tired on the court these last two games than anything, but that’s not an excuse."
Perhaps the greatest difference for Doncic has been the opposition's willingness to get aggressive by focusing so much of their defensive energy and focus on slowing him down. Instead of sitting back in drop coverage when guarding pick-and-rolls, teams are making Doncic work harder by switching at an even greater rate to make him have to work to break down a defender out in space before getting downhill. Sometimes, there will be exaggerated nail help or an aggressive low-man rotation made since there is a lack of fear in the rest of the offense.
Sure, Doncic can still get into the post to attack from a side of the court to make it more challenging for the defense to load up on him, and that's happened at a higher rate with a lot of success. However, there are only so many times that the method of attack throughout the flow of the game will call for a post-up.
Aside from being contained to just two points against the Brooklyn Nets on Monday, Spencer Dinwiddie has stepped up alongside Doncic as his 'co-pilot' in the backcourt. He averaged 31.0 points and 5.5 assists during the two-game road trip and has scored at least 20 points in four of his last five games. Even then, there hasn't been enough support for the high-powered backcourt.
"Since the beginning of the season, he's been great," Doncic said of Dinwiddie. "Not everything you can see in the stat sheet. Sometimes he will score a lot, but he helps me a lot, specifically in the backcourt. We help each other, but I have to help him more."
With Christian Wood sidelined for the Mavs' previous two games, teams didn't have to respect the rest of the offense nearly as much throughout the flow of games. The team takes pride in having Doncic slice up the base defense teams deploy early in games and then having the personnel in plug-and-play lineups to counter in-game adjustments, often involving Wood before clutch time.
"We just did a good job. We know their team is very limited outside of him," Wizards forward Kyle Kuzma said of the team's defensive efforts against Doncic. "With Christian Wood out — big-time player — the ball was going to be in his hands the whole time. For us, we wanted to make sure, certain situations, whether it was him posting up — making sure we were doubling at the time, making sure our rotations were really crisp.
"When we didn't double, playing him on the perimeter, guard 1-on-1 by ourselves without fouling. Playing on a string defensively, that was huge, especially with a player like that. If you just play 1-on-1 with him on an island, it's going to be a long night. We did a great job, entire team, everyone, came in with attention to detail on the game plan."
The Wizards were aggressive with sending the low-man to meet Doncic deep on the drive in help when there was a soft switch out on the perimeter that led to a drive. Dwight Powell tried to seal off his man to maximize the drive conditions for Doncic, but again, the low-man rotation came and made the difference.
On the left side of the floor, the Wizards knew to show help at the nail with exaggerated help. By doing so, the idea is that perhaps it deters Doncic from attacking middle and he instead settles for a tough shot going to his left. On one play, the end result was a tough short-range jumper falling away from the basket.
A common option the Mavs tend to utilize when opposing teams are having success with switching in ball screen coverage is to deploy a "Spain" pick-and-roll. It involves a wing shooter setting a back screen if the situation calls for it, or popping out early to space — requiring the defenders involved to make quick reads and decisions.
The Wizards opted just to double-team Doncic and to show help at the nail — preventing a clean outcome of giving the ball to the roller. The low-man tags the roller and the skip pass is too difficult to make to the weak-side corner, so Doncic takes a contested step-back 3.
Doncic likes to use guard screeners in order to maintain spacing on the drive after dribbling off the screen if no switch occurs. Otherwise, a switch tends to take place that offers a mismatch for him to attack in an empty corner situation. The Wizards' off-ball defense was focused on stabbing at the ball when he drove right and actually pried the ball loose on the play below.
The Mavs recently deployed Josh Green as a ball screener and found success doing so when they defeated the Brooklyn Nets on Monday. Green became a liability in the two-man game against the Wizards because they had their center guarding him and they executed a veer-switch when Doncic tried to drive. The end result was Daniel Gafford getting vertical in the paint while the rest of the unit stayed home on shooters.
When Doncic did attack in isolation after drawing a switch, the Wizards maintained that nail help presence to deter him from gaining an advantage attacking to his right. The outcome tends to be a tough shot going to his left — like a turnaround, one-legged fallaway, or step-back — or a generally difficult set of circumstances deep on the drive left that don't tend to offer an advantage.
The alternative option to all of these outcomes is for Doncic to simply draw the switch and hunt step-back 3s over and over again. He is taking the most off-the-dribble 3s in the NBA at 8.1 per game so far this season, largely due to this reason. However, given he's converting at a 29.2 percent clip, it's not the best option to continue to turn to throughout a game at such an extreme volume. Again, Doncic did get a few to drop against Washington, but again, the result when he doesn't is a long miss and another tough shot.
If the Mavs prove unable to reduce Doncic's current workload, there is a sense that he may experience midseason concerns greater than what occurred during the team's winless two-game Eastern Conference road trip.
“I would say before Christmas if we keep this going up, I don’t think, then he will not be human if he gets past Christmas," Kidd said. "One or the other is going to show if he’s human or not. We believe he’s human, but when everyone is going to come at you every night on the defensive end, and then we’re asking you to do everything offensive, it’s going to show within 25 games. And I would say that’s somewhere around Christmas.”
It's not just about the constant workload of initiating the offense and having to work to get by a defender after a switch that concerns Kidd. He sees a pattern of Doncic taking hits and crashing to the floor consistently that could prove to take a toll on him, which has to be controlled.
“Everyone’s going to say he’s 23 years old, but he’s human,” Kidd said. “The other side of this is he’s falling a lot right now and that’s one of the areas that we’ll talk about is I’m going to try to keep him off the floor. Wood always wins, because he is human. Bruises will start to appear.
“You look at the great ones. (Allen Iverson), a lot of guys hit the floor a lot. (Hitting the floor) doesn’t catch you in that year or the second year, but Father Time is faster just because of the hits. And it’s not the physical hits, the human-to-human hits. It’s the floor. The floor is going to win. It’s always won, it’s always been hard, and it’s not going to change. So we have to figure out how to keep him on his feet.”
Reducing Doncic's workload is easier said than done. After all, Spencer Dinwiddie is already doing some more of the initiating for the half-court offense when he shares the court with Doncic. Having wings and a big that need the playmaking of others to create shots for them has become an issue, especially with a continually increasing rate of switching that occurs in ball screen coverage. Kidd gave a clear message: someone needs to emerge as the consistent No. 2 option.
“But the one thing is we’re only 10 games into this, so we’ll figure that out. But the big thing is understanding who’s going to help, who’s going to be consistent being that second, third, fourth player. We have a group. We don’t just have Robin next to him. We have a group of guys that have to participate. Right now we’ll have one or two participate, and then those two disappear, and then another two show up. We have to become consistent in that area.”
It's not just about scoring or offense, in general, that draws concerns with Doncic's workload. While X's and O's and in-game adjustments are important, a significant part of NBA defense is a unit-wide approach that includes consistent effort and communication. There are personnel limitations that cannot be overcome at times, but regardless, having the energy to give a consistent effort goes a long way. The best way to enable Doncic to do the same is to alleviate his workload on offense.
“There are possessions (the Mavs) have to help Luka on defense because he’s doing so much on the offensive end,” Mavs coach Jason Kidd said before Thursday’s game loss to the Washington Wizards. “We’ve got to be able to find that balance for him to participate defensively, so that helps us win games. But the usage rate is so high, so sometimes there’s going to be some situations where he doesn’t participate. It happens. Been there, done that."
It was explained to reporters by Kidd that the team is going to try out some different strategies to alleviate Doncic's workload during a few of their upcoming games. He didn't reveal specifics on what that will entail. Still, it's something to monitor as the team begins a five-game homestand on Saturday with matchups against three teams currently ranked ahead of them in the Western Conference standings.
“These next couple of games we’re going to try to look at something different, and he has to trust us,” Kidd said. “Because he can easily say, ‘I don’t want to do that, I’m in a rhythm, I’m scoring 30-something a night. We’re winning some games.’
“I just think being able to show him what I see, and then there’s a respect and trust factor that we have for one another, and that helps. But the big thing is he’s from a different planet. He makes the game look so easy. It’s at a different speed. He’s not afraid of the moment, he loves the competition, and no matter who’s out there on the floor with him, he believes he can find a way to win.”
The Mavs need a frontcourt scoring presence that can strike fear into the defense to help keep the defense in a more neutral, base defense. Wood is undoubtedly the best option in that regard. However, the coaching staff needs to find methods to get creative with half-court actions to create favorable, less pressured touches for Doncic.
The first chance the Mavs will have to deploy different strategies in their half-court offense comes against the Portland Trail Blazers. They have been one of the better defensive squads in the NBA this season, with plenty of wing versatility.
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