‘Something to Prove’: 3 Reasons Why Doncic, Mavs Can Advance in Playoffs
Nobody questions whether the Dallas Mavericks are a good basketball team anymore... or at least they shouldn't.
The Mavs are 19-6 since hitting their low-point of the season with a 16-18 record. For those keeping score at home, that's a .760 win percentage since New Year's Eve, and the team has the fifth-best defensive rating overall. Dallas is fifth in the Western Conference standings and trails the fourth-place Utah Jazz by just 1.5 games heading into the final 22 games.
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Although a lot of credit should be given to Jason Kidd and his coaching staff for drastically changing the way opposing teams look at the Mavs from a defensive perspective, Luka Doncic is the catalyst for Dallas' offense, which ranks fifth in offensive rating over the last 10 games. Doncic finding his playoff form a few months ahead of schedule has been a revelation for an offense that started the season ranked in the bottom-10 in November.
We all know what Doncic can do when he's healthy and in tip-top shape. After all, we watched him average 35.7 points, 7.9 rebounds and 10.3 assists in a seven-game series against Kawhi Leonard and Paul George just nine months ago. The biggest question, though, is and always will be, "what will Doncic get from his teammates?"
Over the last two postseasons, Doncic's supporting staff let him down when it mattered most. Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber and Jalen Brunson (last postseason was his first NBA postseason) all had a couple of good games, but it was never sustained. Somewhere along the line, those guys disappeared for far longer than they should have. Whether that was due to strained defensive responsibilities in Finney-Smith and Kleber's cases, or the Clippers simply being a bad matchup in Brunson's case, the Mavs know that Doncic's heroics will only get them so far. They need their other guys to step into the spotlight.
There are three main reasons to be hopeful that things could be different for the Mavs this time around:
Mavs Are More 'Playoff-Equipped' Now
During the first playoff matchup with the Clippers in the 'Orlando Bubble,' Kristaps Porzingis had to exit the series after three games due to tearing his meniscus. In the two teams' most recent playoff meeting, whether you want to blame Porzingis himself or former head coach Rick Carlisle, the fact remains that Porzingis wasn't really a factor in the series. This year's team doesn't have to worry about whether or not Porzingis will turn into the second star next to Luka Doncic, and that could potentially be a burden lifted off of everyone's shoulders. There are more reasonable expectations with the current roster that can be more realistically attained.
Also, the newfound defensive identity that Kidd and his staff have implemented is a style of play that can win a playoff series. Instead of relying only on Finney-Smith and Kleber to make up for others' missed assignments, the entire team is held more accountable now, and the defensive stats speak for themselves so far.
Depth Will Help More Than People Think
“That was the biggest thing we could take away from [the Porzingis trade]," said Mavs GM Nico Harrison in an exclusive interview on our Mavs Step Back Podcast. "That we had a chance to turn one player into two and kind of fill some holes that we needed. That’s the reason why we did it."
Some might roll their eyes at that statement, given that Porzingis theoretically 'gave the Mavs a higher ceiling,' but Harrison is speaking the truth. The idea of Porzingis was greater than the reality of Porzingis. Having literally any positive contributions from Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans over potentially not having anything from Porzingis will be a plus for Dallas.
Another thing that needs to be factored in here is the offseason addition of Reggie Bullock. After a slow start, Bullock is shooting 44 percent from deep since returning from NBA Covid Protocols on New Year's Eve and 48 percent over his last nine games before having to sit out with a hip injury. Bullock's two-way abilities lessons the load for others, making him a postseason X-factor.
No More Clippers... At Least Not This Year
Arguably the biggest reason for optimism that the Mavs can end their decade-long drought of not winning a playoff series is the fact that they won't have to face the Clippers for a third year in a row. Dallas currently occupies the fifth-seed in the West, and has a four-game cushion on the seventh-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves, who are in that first play-in Tournament spot. The Clippers are currently eighth in the West with just a 1.5 game lead over the Lakers. Unless something just goes terribly wrong for Dallas in the final 22 games that drops them to a play-in spot, there should be no rematch.
When fully healthy, the Clippers have two of the best perimeter defenders in the league in Leonard and George, and yet neither of those two could keep Doncic from putting up historical numbers in last year's playoffs. When looking at the potential matchups for the Mavs, there aren't any teams that have perimeter defenders who can contain Doncic. You could argue that Dillon Brooks with the Memphis Grizzlies might give him issues, but Brooks is no Leonard or George.
Doncic should feast even more than usual this postseason, and if he gets just a little bit more help than he has in recent years - and we think he will - the Mavs are going to be one of the toughest outs you can find in the West. This team has a group full of guys with something to prove to the rest of the league, and it won't be long until they get the opportunity to do just that.
