Ten-Game Review: Mavs are Early Playoff Contenders, Despite Growing Pains
The Dallas Mavericks have to happy with where they’re at in this young 2019-2020 regular season, despite experiencing an occasional hiccup here and there. Through 10 games, the Mavs are 6-4 (and to be completely honest, they probably should be 8-2, but we won’t get into all of that) and currently occupy the 6th seed in the Western Conference standings. Dallas has a lot of work to do before they can be considered a lock for the postseason, but in the meantime, here are 10 storylines that have stuck out to us so far this season.
Luka’s MVP-Level Performances
Before the season began, there were a lot of things that we thought needed to go the Mavs' way this season for them to make the postseason. Second-year phenom Luka Doncic taking a big 'next step' in his development was at the top of that list, and he certainly hasn't disappointed so far, making our jaws drop with every passing game.
Through ten games, Doncic is averaging 28.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game on 48.5-percent shooting from the field, and he's currently Top-5 in the league in total points, total assists, assists per game, and is tied with LeBron James for most triple-doubles so for this season with four.
Although Doncic's three-point percentage is sitting at 31.8, he has a 55.6 effective field goal percentage and an impressive 61.6 true shooting percentage. Doncic hasn't just taken your average leap forward, but he's thrust himself into early-season MVP consideration as well. If Doncic continues to play this way, and the Mavs continue to win games, expect the MVP talk to heat up as the season progresses.
Mavs’ Explosive Offense
This Mavs team isn't immune to having an occasional mini-drought on the offensive end, but for the most part, they've been extremely good at putting the ball in the hoop, even with Kristaps Porzingis having his early-season struggles. Dallas currently has a 112.9 offensive rating, which ranks first in the league. Doncic emerging as a mega-star has definitely helped in that department, but head coach Rick Carlisle needs to get some credit here as well. This year's roster has more weapons for Carlisle to utilize than he's had since that 2014-2015 pre-Rondo team, which was also one of the best offenses in the league at the time.
The Mavs aren't perfect, but they will hang 120-plus points on any team in the league if they're clicking.
Team Defense = Biggest Weakness
Dallas has a lot of capable defenders on its roster. Guys like Porzingis, Maxi Kleber, Delon Wright, and Dorian Finney-Smith can all get the job done as shot-blockers or on-ball defenders on most nights. As a team, though, the Mavs currently rank 22nd in the league with a 110.1 defensive rating. Opposing teams, on average, shoot 46.4-percent from the field against the Mavs, which would rank Dallas 22nd in that department as well.
This area should at least get a little better with time, as the team gets used to playing together, but it will also remain the team's biggest weakness, regardless. When the Mavs' offense is humming, it won't seem like a big deal. But when the offense has some of those aforementioned 'hiccups', that's when it can get ugly in a hurry.
Carlisle’s head-scratching starting lineup and rotation decisions
One of the more frustrating storylines of this Mavs' season has been Carlisle's questionable decisions, or mainly, inconsistencies when it comes to the starting lineups and rotations. The Mavs have had eight different starting lineups through ten games. We knew coming into this season that Doncic and Porzingis (when not being load-managed) would be the only for-sure starters, but we didn't think it would be a new starting five nearly every single night. Dallas could use a little bit more consistency here going forward if they want to optimize their on-court chemistry.
If you look at the boxscores, the plus/minus numbers will tell you that Tim Hardaway Jr. (plus-6.9 on the year) has actually had a positive impact on the court for the Mavs this season, despite him shooting just 37-percent from the field, 32-percent from deep, and not playing the greatest of defense at times, to put it nicely. We suppose our eyes have just been lying to us, though, because it sure does seem like the team could use a little more Seth Curry, Delon Wright and Justin Jackson, and a little less Hardaway Jr. We're not suggesting that the Mavs bench Hardaway Jr. all together, but rather try decreasing his minutes from 23 to around 15 and just see what happens.
Dallas has consistently gotten off to slow starts all season long, relying on their bench mob to dig them out of the early deficits. For this team to get to where it wants to be, Carlisle will have to find the right formula, and hopefully, it'll be sooner, rather than later.
Justin Jackson has improved and needs more playing time
Speaking of Justin Jackson, the kid has really made the most of the time he's gotten on the court to this point. Jackson is averaging just 6.4 points and 2.5 rebounds in a little over 13 minutes per game, but he's also shooting 50-percent from the field and 46-percent from three when he's out there.
There was a lot of buzz around Jackson heading into this season, as it was reported that he had gotten stronger by adding nearly 20 pounds over the summer. A lot of people expected Jackson to start at small forward for the Mavs on opening night, but with all the different starting lineups that have been used so far, Carlisle hasn't called Jackson's number yet for whatever reasons. Carlisle has, however, chosen to start Courtney Lee three times already, playing him an average of nine minutes per start and sitting him entirely for the other seven games.
Again -- some head-scratching decisions for sure, but you have to believe that Jackson will eventually get his time to shine if he keeps shooting the ball as well as he has. We believe he's at least earned an opportunity.
Mavs winning games with KP ‘not being KP’ yet
As mentioned before, Porzingis just hasn't quite been able to put all together in his first season with the Mavs. The 'unicorn' big man has had a couple of really rough games so far -- most recently, a 4-point, 1-11 shooting night stinker in a road loss to the Boston Celtics -- is averaging 18.3 points, 7.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 2.4 blocks in just a little over 31 minutes per game. Porzingis has struggled from the field, shooting just 40-percent, but has shot the three-ball well at 38-percent.
The fact that the Mavs are 6-4 on the season, despite Porzingis struggling and being a net-negative in the boxscore when he's on the floor, is a really encouraging sign for the team's playoff hopes this season when you consider just how much better they could be with him being more consistent. You have to think that Porzingis will start to play better once he 1) re-adjusts to the speed of NBA games, and 2) becomes more familiar with teammates' tendencies.
Next up for Porzingis is a New York Knicks 'homecoming' at Madison Square Garden on Thursday night national television (TNT). And if you ask Doncic, Porzingis could be in for a big bounce-back game against his former team.
"This happens to great players. They have bad nights," said Doncic after the loss in Boston. "I think the next game he's going to have at least 30 points."
Mavs got great value from their offseason signings and re-signings
As much as we all wanted the Mavs to land bigger free agents than they did over the summer, it's been great to see their signings and re-signings flourish early on. Although we still think Wright and Curry need to be on the floor more, both players have shown to be well worth the $8-$9 million per year that they're making. Wright's defensive prowess and finishing ability around the rim has been spectacular so far, and Curry's three-point shooting has been what you'd expect it to be as well.
Dorian Finney-Smith signed a 3-year, $12 million deal during the offseason, and although his three-point shooting isn't where it needs to be (28.6 percent), he's been a constant in the Mavs' starting lineups and is a rugged defender and offensive rebounder. Finney-Smith brings the energy on a nightly basis, and for $4 million per year, the Mavs must be happy with what they're getting.
Kleber has been the biggest value for the Mavs so far, though, with his new 4-year, $36 million deal. Kleber is right up there with Porzingis as the Mavs' best shot-blocker, and he's probably the team's best defender. And if we're being completely honest, Kleber has probably been the Mavs third-best player too. So far this season, Kleber is averaging 10.2 points, 6.6 rebounds and 1.1 blocks in nearly 27 minutes per game. He's also shooting 45.6-percent from the field, 40.5-percent from deep, and has a 61.7-percent true shooting percentage. Whether he's starting or coming off the bench, Kleber has been a big lift for the Mavs, and will most likely continue to be going forward.
Mavs’ rebounding has been a pleasant surprise
Heading into the season, one of the biggest concerns about the Mavs was their rebounding. Pretty much everyone thought Dallas would struggle in that department, but surprisingly enough, it's turned out to be a big strength for them early on, and it's been a total team effort.
The Mavs are averaging 47.8 rebounds per game, which is currently 5th in the league, behind the Bucks, Nets, Spurs, and Clippers. Dallas also grabs 11.2 offensive rebounds per game, which ranks 7th in the league. The Mavs have six players averaging at least 5 rebounds per game with Doncic leading the way (10 RPG). And even guys like Wright and Jalen Brunson are chipping in with nearly 4 rebounds per game. What was once seen as a potential weakness has turned into a strength for the Mavs, and luckily for them, it looks like it could be sustainable.
A special group of guys, both on and off the court
We've mentioned this many times before, but this group of Mavs is one of the more fun teams we've had the pleasure of covering in a long, long time. Not only have they played well enough to start out with a 6-4 winning record, but they genuinely seem to enjoy one another's company off the court as well.
The team chemistry and bonding started a week before training camp down in Miami, and Mark Cuban joined our Mavs Step Back Podcast right before the season began to dish on just how special this group is.
"We’ve got a great group of guys," said Cuban when talking about the Mavs' established culture. "Everybody gets along. I always say you can have one knucklehead on a team, but you can’t have two. We don’t have have any knuckleheads, and that’s a good thing."
Although there may not be any knuckleheads on this team, there's certainly a number of goofballs, and that makes things more fun for everybody.
Home performances must improve
The Mavs were the only undefeated road team in the league before falling to Boston on Monday night. Dallas' 4-1 road record is great, especially when you consider that the team won just nine road games in total last season. The problem for the Mavs so far this season, though, has been their performances at American Airlines Center. They're just 2-3 at home so far (and given, that record should probably be 3-2 if you consider the missed no-call on Dwight Howard in the Mavs' overtime loss to the Lakers), and that's just not going to cut it for a team with big playoff aspirations.
Maybe the team is still getting used to the new skyline court with Dirk Nowitzki's one-legged fade-away silhouette on it, or maybe the AAC popcorn hasn't reached mid-season form yet (though that's highly doubtful). Whatever the reasons, the Mavs must right the ship at home, and they'll get their next opportunity to do so on Saturday night against the defending champion Toronto Raptors.
All things considered, the Mavs are in a great spot nearly one-eighth of the way through this season. They've already experienced a number of growing pains, and they're sure to experience more along the way, but Dallas' star-power and team character should be able to win them a lot of games the rest of the way, getting them into the postseason for the first time in three years.
