Norman Powell Is Heading for a Massive Payday

The Toronto Raptors are going to have to go deep into their chequebook to keep Norman Powell around for next season

Norman Powell is making himself a boatload of money.

Since stepping into the starting lineup for the Toronto Raptors on January 22, Powell has suddenly become superman. He's averaging a team-leading 23.1 points per game on 52.6% shooting with 45.5% 3-point shooting. 

It's made the once plausible notion that the 27-year-old would opt-in to his $11.6 million player option this summer now laughable. The question isn't so much if Powell is going to opt-in or opt-out, it has now become will the Raptors retain him, and if so, how much will it cost?

It's hard to find a direct comparison for Powell. He'll be 28 years old next season with a bit of a checkered injury past. Since becoming a regular in the Raptors rotation in 2017-18, he's played in about 80% of Toronto's games, usually as the Raptors sixth or seventh man. 

Last offseason there were five contracts I'd expect Powell's agent to pull from in any negotiations they have this summer:

Bogdan Bogdanovic (RFA): $72 million over four years ($18 million AAV)

Jerami Grant (UFA): $60 million over three years ($20 million AAV)

Joe Harris (UFA): $75 million over four years ($18.5 million AAV) 

Marcus Morris (UFA): $64 million over four years ($16 million AAV)

Fred VanVleet (UFA): $85 million over four years ($21.25 million AAV)

Powell, of course, doesn't fit evenly into any of these boxes.

The contract VanVleet signed with the Raptors this past offseason is probably a little rich for Powell who will be two years older than VanVleet was when he signed his contract. Grant too was a little bit younger than Powell will be this summer and he was coming off an impressive playoff stretch and that piqued the Detroit Pistons' interest. Morris, conversely, was 31 when he re-signed with the Clippers this past summer.

The best comparisons for Powell are probably Harris and Bogdanovic. Interestingly, the two guards show up as two of the top six best comparisons for Powell in NBA history, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Harris was 29 when he re-signed with the Nets coming off a 14.5 point-per-game season and was shooting a blistering 42.4% from 3-point range last season. In Bogdanovic's case, while he was 28 when he signed with the Atlanta Hawks in November, he was a restricted free agent so the Hawks had to overpay to make sure they could sign him. He averaged 15.1 while starting in 28 of 61 games for the Sacramento Kings in 2019-20.

The difference between last offseason and this summer should be the number of teams vying for free agents. Unlike last fall, there should be at least a handful of teams with cap space and more certainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic should help open up some checkbooks when free agency opens up this summer.

It's in part why the 28-year-old Victor Oladipo reportedly turned down a two-year, $45.2 million ($22.6 million AAV) contract extension offer from the Houston Rockets, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. By all accounts, Oladpio is looking for some more long-term security and there should be at least a handful of suitors willing to pony up what he's looking for.

As for Powell, the $18 to $20 million per season range seems around right, maybe even a little higher if he can keep up his red-hot shooting.

In today's NBA there's always a need for highly efficient shooters that can hit from behind the arc. That's something Powell has in spades. He can attack the rim and nail pull-up 3-pointers like some of the best shooters in the NBA. 

The Raptors have about $23.5 million in practical cap space to spend this summer, according to Spotrac, and with Powell's Bird Rights, they should have no trouble paying whatever his asking price is. The question is merely will they want to? If another desperate team comes over the top and is willing to go above and beyond for Powell's services, his Toronto tenure may be nearing an end.

Further Reading

Jayson Tatum's story shows even NBA athletes don't always bounce back from COVID-19 so quickly

Who says no to this trade that sends P.J. Tucker back to Toronto?

Parsing the latest trade rumours for Toronto Raptors matches