Where Will James Harden Finish in the 2019-20 MVP Vote?
James Harden's last chance to make an impression on MVP voters came on March 10. Houston's shooting guard is currently with the Rockets in Orlando as they prepare for the season restart, but neither Harden, LeBron James nor Giannis Antetokounmpo will get to make an MVP case at the ESPN Wide World of Sports complex. Each player's MVP resume has already been submitted.
The NBA told teams on July 17 that the eight regular-season games in Orlando will not be taken into account for the MVP race, allowing voters to get a head start on their end-of-year awards ballots. The remaining eight contests could be of vital importance to certain teams. But with regards to the MVP vote, the rest of the regular season is little more than a glorified exhibition.
Harden is seeking his second MVP in 2019-20, though he's contended for the trophy on numerous occasions over the last decade. He won the award in 2017-18, finishing second on three other occasions. Another top-five finish this year would mark Harden's sixth in the last seven seasons, reinforcing his resume as one of the best players of his generation. So where will Harden finish in the 2019-20 MVP race? Let's assess his potential landing spot after 64 regular-season games.
Wins MVP
Harden was certainly on an MVP pace in the first two months of the season. The Arizona State product burst out of the gate in his first 25 games, on-pace to set the non-Wilt scoring record with 39.3 points per game. Harden banged home triples at a historic rate to kick off the season. He scored 50-plus points four times in a seven-game span. As Russell Westbrook struggled to find his role, Harden more than kept the Rockets afloat. Houston entered Christmas Day No. 3 in the Western Conference at 21–9, less than a game back of the Nuggets for the No. 2 seed. Another MVP was certainly in play for The Beard.
The narrative has changed for Harden in recent months. Houston currently sits No. 6 in the Western Conference entering the NBA restart, and Harden lost his shooting stroke to a degree after the calendar turned to 2020. Harden is shooting under 40% from the field since Jan. 1. He's shooting just a hair over 30% from three, often ceding the offensive spotlight to Russell Westbrook. Harden has faded from the MVP conversation in 2020.
It's a testament to Harden's skill and efficiency that he can average 29 points per game in the midst of an elongated slump. But while Harden struggled, Antetokounmpo thrived, dominating the East as Milwaukee seized the NBA's best record. Harden is all-but-guaranteed to lose the MVP to Antetokounmpo for the second straight season.
Verdict: No chance
Second-Place Finish
Antetokounmpo looks to be the clear MVP frontrunner after an abbreviated regular season, earning 60 of 70 first-place votes in a straw poll conducted by ESPN in March. Can Harden finish directly behind Milwaukee's superstar in 2019-20? The answer is a bit murky.
Despite his shooting struggles before the COVID-19 suspension, Harden would be an enticing MVP candidate in most seasons. He's leading the league in scoring for the third straight year, and he also holds the league lead in made threes by a considerable margin. But the field behind Antetokounmpo is stacked outside Harden. LeBron James continues to thrive in Year 17, returning to the Finals conversation after a disappointing first year in Los Angeles. Luka Doncic is in the midst of perhaps the best sophomore season in NBA history. Anthony Davis deserves marginal MVP consideration, as does Chris Paul and Kawhi Leonard. The league isn't lacking superstar talent by any stretch.
Harden should finish above the final three names on our list. Placing ahead of Doncic and James is no guarantee. Los Angeles' superstar leads the league in assists as he guides the West's best team, while Doncic is in relative striking distance of both 30 points per game and a season-long triple-double. Bet on Harden to ultimately surpass Doncic on a account of his dominant scoring season. It will be hard to finish ahead of James. A fourth second-place MVP finish doesn't appear to be on the horizon.
Verdict: Unlikely
Top-Five Finish
We noted Harden will likely finish behind Antetokounmpo and James, but Houston's superstar guard should still secure his sixth top-five MVP finish in the last seven seasons. Doncic could earn a groundswell of support and vault to the third-place spot (much to the chagrin of Houston fans), but its nearly impossible for Harden to finish outside the top five.
Davis isn't the leading man on his own team. Leonard has missed 13 games. Paul doesn't have the counting stats, and the cases for Nikola Jokic, Pascal Siakam and Damian Lillard are flimsy. 2019-20 won't be remembered as the best year of James Harden's career, but another top-5 MVP finish is effectively guaranteed. Harden's case as one of the century's best players continues to grow by the season.
Verdict: Likely
