49ers’ Four Questions: the Future of Brock Purdy
In the afterglow of the 49ers' most important regular season win in years, the team is now poised for a Super Bowl run. The game answered several questions and raised a few more.
Philadelphia has been defeated and demystified, and now the Niners look ahead to what they hope will be a championship future.
Have the 49ers found their long-term answer at quarterback?
Yes. Brock Purdy has passed every meaningful test, he wins the way Kyle Shanahan wants to win and trusts: processing, anticipation, accuracy, efficiency, and avoiding mistakes.
Shanahan points to a critical difference between Purdy and Jimmy Garoppolo, that Purdy focuses on learning from his mistakes and not repeating them. “He actually thinks about it and wants to know, tries to figure out how to fix it so it doesn't happen again. And he's one of the best guys I've been around who rarely makes the same mistake twice."
Shanahan points to Purdy’s growth through experience. Purdy vs. Dallas in the playoffs when pressured was 4-12 for 55 yards. Purdy when blitzed on a third of his dropbacks against Philadelphia was 10-10 for 213 yards and three touchdowns.
Success in the biggest game of the year will keep adding to the team’s trust in Purdy. As Nick Bosa put it after the game, “I’ve never had this much confidence in the offense.”
Purdy says he can reach another level. Before the 2022 draft, Purdy worked on a change in mechanics to get more power from his hips and his velocity jumped 11 percent to 55.5 mph (from Matt Barrows in The Athletic). This off-season will be Purdy's first chance as a pro to put in more development work.
Could Purdy’s development change the 49ers draft strategy?
In recent years, Shanahan has looked to optimize the weapons in his scheme. With the trade for Christian McCaffrey, his search ended. Every chess piece was optimized. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel entering their peak, George Kittle is among the league’s best tight ends with depth drafted behind him, and McCaffrey plus depth at running back.
The only missing weapon may be a third receiver if Jauan Jennings leaves in free agency, though Ronnie Bell is poised to step in.
Which all leads to this, with Purdy emerging as a weapon himself, and all of the pieces optimized, what’s left? At long last Shanahan may turn to the offensive line as not just addressing a weakness but as a means to optimize Purdy. The best bang for the buck draft investment on offense will be at right tackle and right guard.
Now that Shanahan knows Purdy is the present and the future, he can build around his latest weapon.
Has Steve Wilks and the defensive line added a new weapon to their arsenal?
Yes, this isn’t about Chase Young but the front four as a group. For years under Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans, the Wide-9 pass rush created open scramble lanes for rushing quarterbacks.
A subtle development of the post-bye 49ers is a containment rush. Rather than an all-out improv to the quarterback they attack as a group and deny the lanes. The ultimate test will be Lamar Jackson and the Ravens on Christmas night.
If the containment rush can continue to succeed it will limit the Wide-9 kryptonite where scrambling quarterbacks have victimized the 49ers defensive line for years.
This new tactic could be essential in a year when Jalen Hurts is the primary competition in the NFC and Jackson or Patrick Mahomes are the most likely quarterback to come out of the AFC.
Given the success of the defensive line do the Niners need to re-sign Chase Young?
Yes. The argument that they don't need Young just a reasonably priced veteran edge with impact is persuasive, but here’s why he needs to stay.
The first reason, the Niners flipped last year’s NFC Championship. Philadelphia had a suffocating 61.9% pressure rate against the Niners last year. The Niners had a dominant 61.5% pressure rate against the Eagles this year. Proven success. Against the league’s best offensive line.
The second reason is an assumption but a likely one given their history. If Young and Randy Gregory walk, guess what position the Niners will draft in the first round? Right in one. Edge.
An agonized groan is heard around the Bay Area as The Faithful arrive in Santa Clara with pitchforks demanding to know why the Niners didn’t draft an offensive lineman in the first.
Behind Door No. 3. The Niners are bad at this. Their hit rate in the draft on defensive linemen has been low.
So sign an affordable veteran edge in free agency you say. Well sure, but the edges hold out to the last possible second for most money. You wait in the bargain bin shopping line and you can either lose who you want or end up empty-handed. The Niners will instead opt for what they can control. They’ll draft someone. With their first pick. Insert your favorite colorful metaphor here.
So keep Young, to essentially save Shanahan and John Lynch from themselves. And extend Aiyuk. Then restructure everyone that hasn’t been restructured yet, led by Deebo. That kicks the cap can down the road, and they’ll need to start planning now for Purdy’s extension, but that’s the next article.
