Eight Barriers To A 49ers Championship, Part 2
Part 1 broke down the first four of my eight barriers to a ring. The first two barriers were cleared last year. Going from worst to first in interceptions by adding ball skills to the secondary. Increasing the efficiency and scoring of the offense while adding a guardrail to keep them on track in Christian McCaffrey.
The remaining barriers include failing to protect the quarterback in the playoffs, and that quarterback forcing a defense out of Cover 1 to set up the running game.
On to the remaining barriers:
1. A Wide-9 solution to a scrambling quarterback and getting critical stops on 3rd and long
The wrong assumption: If the front four doesn’t go past the quarterback in pursuit, then gap integrity is maintained, and the quarterback can’t scramble for the first down on third and long. This solution is lip service, it’s wishing, doesn’t happen. This is a rare weakness of the 49ers defense, a quarterback has open gaps to scramble for the first on third and long, it’s a backbreaker emotionally, and then the opponent often marches for a score.
The change: Three options. A pass rush scheme that denies gaps. Assign a spy to the quarterback. Blitz on third and long to take time away from the quarterback and make it more difficult for him to find space to scramble. 49ers Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks will choose Door No. 3, apparently much more often than DeMeco Ryans did.
The result: Ryans was 19th in blitz rate last year, Wilks has historically been top five.
Moral of the Story: Wilks wants a defense where each level complements the other two. The Niners added more speed to the front four, pass coverage at linebacker, run defense at nickel, blitzing at safety, man press coverage at corner. Wilks also wants to better tap into the athleticism of the 11 on the field. All of it leads to the quarterback having to hold the ball longer and the pressure getting home.
Complementary football on defense is about getting off the field on third and that’s true north for this defensive group in personnel, scheme, and cohesion.
2. Addressing injuries and the Madden Mindset
The wrong assumption: That players need to get back on the field as soon as possible to optimize the system. The Niners are notorious for pushing players to return as soon as they can, Brock Purdy back Week 1 as the latest example. For 10 straight years, the Niners have been one of the 10 most injured teams in the league. This is part of why. The problem precedes Shanahan, but he also hasn’t changed his thinking or processes to address it.
The change: None made. It’s as if Kyle Shanahan is playing Madden and wants the highest-score players out there every play. Christian McCaffrey gets a ton of touches in the first half despite a talented and deep running back group behind him, there’s no rotation until the late game close out. Injury risk isn’t a consideration.
The result: Per Football Outsiders, the Niners have been one of the 10 most injured teams every year since 2013. That’s not bad luck or “just football” -- that’s causal, it warrants a study of processes, playing style, mindset, and physical environment to help determine why. Travel may be a culprit, but the Seahawks travel more air miles and they haven’t been on the 10 most injured teams list every year for a decade.
Moral of the story: Ignoring a problem doesn’t make it go away. Ten straight years. And this year they have six long road trips and the fewest days between games versus their opponent of any team in the league. The injury risk is considerably higher this year, particularly in the second half of the season.
3. A No Man and the Walsh approach to closing out games
The wrong assumption: That Kyle Shanahan can serve as the head coach and offensive coordinator solo with no drop off in either one.
The change: They have a potential “No Man” on staff in Assistant Head Coach Anthony Lynn. He can advise Shanahan on game management and rotations. But where was he in the NFC Championship when DeVonta Smith trapped the ball? Kyle got no inputs in time and froze in the moment. Where was Lynn to tell him throw the flag right now? Or did he? Where is Lynn to say rotate the backs, give CMC a breather for injury prevention? The needed person is there, a former head coach graybeard that can tell Shanahan no and Kyle will listen to him. But Lynn needs to execute the second mind and contrarian role. That isn’t happening.
The result: The Niners clearly see the role’s value in creating it and filling it with Lynn. Structurally the role should include seeing gaps in what the head coach is doing and filling them. A key weakness in playoff games is closing them out, 10-point leads surrendered in the Super Bowl and the NFC Championship versus the Rams. Taking a page from Bill Walsh’s book may help.
Walsh was known for scripting plays and practicing two-minute drills. He also practiced four-minute drills, how to run out the clock, and perfecting the plays needed to get the vital first down that wins the game. He also kept a few plays out of the opening script that he thought would work and had them in his back pocket. Walsh thought he could better come up with adjustments during the week than at halftime. He had those plays practiced and ready to use when they were needed most.
Moral of the story: The combination of Shanahan and Lynn should lead to no gaps, it’s up to them to make that happen. No challenge flag on the DeVonta Adams play proves they have work to do together.
4. Reject in the mix, it’s part of the journey, not the summit
The wrong assumption: That finishing “In The Mix” by making the NFL’s Final Four regularly just requires some breaks to win a championship, get there often enough and it will happen. Then talk about the unlucky breaks and bad calls that blocked a ring and return next year.
The change: In the mix is a necessary step but it’s not the goal. “Get there often enough and we’ll win.” Ask the ‘90s Buffalo Bills about that, or the Air Coryell Chargers. If the Shanahan Era Niners fail to win a ring, “In The Mix” will be an albatross wrapped around their collective necks, the team’s epitaph. They’ll come out at halftime in 2033 for a 10-year reunion and get a golf clap at Levi’s.
The result: When I covered the Niners in the mid-eighties, what I heard to a man, from players and coaches: the playoffs are about matchups. Why did the Niners lose to Philly last year? Overmatched if not overwhelmed on both lines. To win a ring that has to be erased. The roster can’t be exploited or exposed by skillset holes. It can’t be dominated in any matchups or by the opposing sideline. No scheme losses, no matchup losses, then you can win rings. These Niners are close, but in my view, matchup losses and skillset holes are why they don’t have a ring yet.
Moral of the story: Climbing a challenging mountain takes arduous work to get near the summit, then you set up base camp and figure out your plan of attack to reach the summit. Same for these Niners. Base camp near the top is necessary and a great achievement. But there’s no hardware or parades, all you get is a golf clap in 10 years. You have to reach the summit. Then you’re immortal.
Until then, these 49ers are the modern-day equivalent of the ‘90s Bills. To avoid that fate, they need to reject the cultural life preserver of “In The Mix.” The Quest for Six has to be made real with substantive and difficult changes.
2023. In the mix, absolutely. In Philly, probably. Go to the matchups, the lines. Lot of work to be done to close those gaps. 2024. In my view, one of the most important drafts in 49ers history. They have the full cupboard, 11 picks to work with, they have to finish the offensive line to get past Philly. Meanwhile, a healthy Brock Purdy develops in the offseason, Trey Lance takes more steps forward, this is the Niners best shot at a ring.
I have Philadelphia winning the next Super Bowl in Las Vegas. Then in February 2025 The San Francisco 49ers win their 6th championship, in New Orleans. Eight barriers to a ring. Two down, six to go. Get it done.
